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Before the Revolutionary war in North America, a movement in favor of establishing independence paved the way. Common Sense, written by the political activist and philosopher Thomas Paine, became a central part of it. In this paper I go over some of its points while making correlations with the movement for indefinite life extension.

The people of America’s 13 colonies weren’t in agreement on how to move forward with their disputes with Great Britain. Like Thomas Paine wrote, “The mind of the multitude is left at random, and seeing no fixed object before them, they pursue such as fancy or opinion starts.” Common Sense fixed the object of independence, rather than reconciliation with tyranny, in enough minds to help make it happen.

True freedom is about much more than things like the ability to sail the open seas or be independent from the authority of kings – it is about access to all constructive opportunities, of which there may be an infinite number, and to which there are still innumerable barriers. Every day asks us whether we want to put in work to break more of the barriers around us, and every day we either reconcile with the conventions of laissezfaire or continue the struggle for freedom.

Movements have broken many bonds over the decades and centuries. What was once a world overrun with crushing suppressions is now manageable and improving in many countries on numerous fronts. We need that “fixed object” that Paine was talking about so we can open the frontiers of industrialized peoples next most pressing freedom. That object is time, the walls of defined lifespans must come down. Nothing is more absolutely enslaving than <125 year death sentences for all, and the times are ripe and ready to take it on. The world works with and engineers biology in many ways now and gets better at it faster as the toolbox of biotechnology continues to deepen. Biological mastery is in the cards if we play them.

Paine wrote, ”O ye that love mankind! Ye that dare oppose, not only the tyranny, but the tyrant, stand forth! Every spot of the old world is overrun with oppression. Freedom hath been hunted round the globe. Asia, and Africa, have long expelled her—Europe regards her like a stranger, and England hath given her warning to depart. O! receive the fugitive, and prepare in time an asylum for mankind.” In that style I would write, “O ye that love life! Ye that dare oppose, not only the symptoms of mortal afflictions, but the roots, stand forth! Every spot of the world is overrun with death. Life hath been hunted round the globe. Tradition and religion have long expelled her—politics regards her like a stranger, and trend setters have given her warning to depart. O! receive the fugitive, and prepare in time an asylum for this survivors blood that fights on through us.”

How many injustices should we accept? How much lack of freedom should we endure? ”There are injuries which nature cannot forgive; she would cease to be nature if she did. […] The robber, and the murderer, would often escape unpunished, did not the injuries which our tempers sustain, provoke us into justice.” I often say that anger for death is there for the same reason that pain is there when touching a hot stove — it is your body prompting you to take corrective measures to end the pain. We ought endure such misfortunes when we must and take action against them when we can.

The time for life extension is now because the tools and insights are here, and also because as Paine says, “When we are planning for posterity, we ought to remember, that virtue is not hereditary.” You know that the people in your life deserve to live, you understand the importance of working to get this done now, but our grandchildren might not. Humanity cannot afford to pass the buck off into the darkness. I may believe that posterity will be roughly as virtuous as us, but I’m not a prophet. Dark times tend to sweep in on their own schedules.

It is our duty to get this job done. “[N]othing can settle our affairs so expeditiously as an open and determined declaration for independance.” The Declaration of Independence was written after Common Sense, mainly by Thomas Jefferson. A life extension version of it might look something like this:


Declaration of Independence from Death

We hold this truth to be self-evident, that all people are created equal, that they are endowed by life with certain unalienable rights, that chief among them is life itself, that is, freedom from incurring the injustice of a defined lifespan. To secure this right, science is practiced among people, deriving its just power from the purest form of the pursuit for answers, for the lifting of the veils of ignorance that hold us back from true freedom. Whenever anything becomes destructive of this end, it is the right of the people to alter or abolish it, and to institute new practices, laying its foundation on principles and organizing its power in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their survival. The history of death is a history of repeated horrors and atrocities. Let the facts be submitted to a candid world.

Every person who dies misses out on what very well may be an infinity of incredible wonders and opportunities. This is stiflingly enormous opportunity cost. People lose their freedom, memories, goals, thoughts, themselves; others lose them; all of humanity and the universe loses them, and nothing in the universe compares to a human. The all-around suffering that death causes to the individuals it kills and the people around them is staggering and endlessly traumatic, causing stress and damage on countless levels of every part of life and society. The death process is degrading and undignified, humiliating people for decades as it reduces them to feebleness, senility and dust. Death deprives people of the ability to know what is going on in this mysterious dimension we all find ourselves in here, what we ultimately are and why we are here. It steals away our chance to know what marvels and wonders exist in the expanses of the great unknown, our ability to experience pleasures we haven’t yet, our ability to know what it’s like to experience the fulfillment of all of our goals, and the chance to work for and live in an existence of negligible or perhaps even non-existent fallacy.

We, the freedom loving members of humanity, from all around the globe, of all cultures and creeds, solemnly declare, that we are, and of right ought to be free from death in the form of defined lifespans. To this end we mutually pledge to each other our fortunes and our sacred honor.



The customs of conventions, our current mainstream traditions, are against us, and will be so, until, by a thorough awakening for independence from death, our oldest and most sacred right, takes its rightful and long overdue place among the ranks of other indispensable rights. “The custom of all courts is against us, and will be so, until, by an independance, we take rank with other nations.”

“Wherefore, if they have not virtue enough to be Whigs, they ought to have prudence enough to wish for Independance.” People do not need to want to live for thousands of years in order to want independence from death, they need only want their own freedom to choose what course they may, and the same for their friends and families. Some people don’t want to be forced to live for thousands of years, and some people don’t want to be forced to die before the age of 125. Currently, however, only the people who might choose to die at the age of 50 have the freedom to make that choice. With unlimited lifespans, we can all be free. This is about eradicating deaths tyranny, not death, in the same way that the American revolutionaries worked to break the stranglehold of tyranny that Great Britain held over them, not stop every slight and fight they might have post-independence.

“We fight neither for revenge nor conquest; […] we are not insulting the world with our fleets and armies, nor ravaging the globe for plunder.” Our war is even more dignified. It is removal of a tyranny and the installation of one of the greatest freedoms of all, all without a shedding of blood.

“[L]et a crown be placed thereon, by which the world may know, that so far as we approve of monarchy, that in America the law is king. For as in absolute governments the King is law, so in free countries the law ought to be King; and there ought to be no other.” The ‘law as King’ is superior to ‘humans as Kings’ because people collectively form laws with some amount of oversight of each other’s input. “Law” as the foundation, however, can still tend to be quite arbitrary. Life is what rules us, living, the chance to do people things in a universe of endless opportunities. Let life wear the crown and guide us along our path to true freedom. “The cause of America is in a great measure the cause of all mankind.” The cause of expanding our frontiers and abilities, of expanding life, is in great measure the greatest cause of them all.

Greetings everyone, I am running a very unique digital conference time-slotted for participants in Asia, AUS, NZ etc on April 9, 5pm Sydney time, see details below, with 2 very well known Futurist colleagues, Ross Dawson and Shara Evans, on the Future of Work. We are using the Zoom platform again, and have room for up to 500 people; right now we’re at 280 signups but it’s filling up quickly so please sign up soonest:)

Please review the event details here, or here.

Some more related resources:

Archives of previous online shows

***** New: short film on impact of covid9

Read my take on the covid19 crisis

new resource hub on PostCorona Futures

The Future of Work — the Great Transformation. Free online conference with Futurists Ross Dawson, Shara Evans, Gerd Leonhard

The world ‘after Corona’ will be dramatically different (read Gerd’s take here: gerd.io/gr8transformation), and the way we work, when, where & why is changing forever.

Join 3 of the world’s top futurists to discuss the Future of Work: Ross Dawson (Sydney), Shara Evans (AUS/USA), Gerd Leonhard (Zurich)

Sydney 5pm

Auckland 7pm

Singapore 3pm

Mumbai 12:30pm

Dubai 11am

Zurich 9am

Themes: economic impact of the crisis, remote/distributed work, the changing role of offices, skills and capabilities soon required, how to tap into our unique human capabilities, well-being and working remotely +++

Gerd Leonhard

We face complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty about the future consequences of cryptocurrency use. There are doubts about the positive and negative impacts of the use of cryptocurrencies in the financial systems. In order to address better and deeper the contradictions and the consequences of the use of cryptocurrencies and also informing the key stakeholders about known and unknown emerging issues in new payment systems, we apply two helpful futures studies tools known as the “Future Wheel”, to identify the key factors, and “System Dynamics Conceptual Mapping”, to understand the relationships among such factors. Two key scenarios will be addressed. In on them, systemic feedback loops might be identified such as a) terrorism, the Achilles’ heel of the cryptocurrencies, b) hackers, the barrier against development, and c) information technology security professionals, a gap in the future job market. Also, in the other scenario, systemic feedback loops might be identified such as a) acceleration of technological entrepreneurship enabled by new payment systems, b) decentralization of financial ecosystem with some friction against it, c) blockchain and shift of banking business model, d) easy international payments triggering structural reforms, and e) the decline of the US and the end of dollar dominance in the global economy. In addition to the feedback loops, we can also identify chained links of consequences that impact productivity and economic growth on the one hand, and shift of energy sources and consumption on the other hand.

Watch the full length presentation at Victor V. Motti YouTube Channel

Anticipation and to remain hopeful and patient in expecting a preferred future have a special place and a critical role in some moral and religious systems of faith. As a personal virtue, there are many natural, cultural, social, and educational factors that play a role in its development. However, for an economic agent and in general forward looking decision makers who follow a more secular worldview, the argument in favor of anticipation and how much it could be reasonable might be less clear. Therefore, it is worthwhile to explore when and under which circumstances we should choose anticipation. A convincing argument might be helpful. In this blog post I will build a framework based on game theory to provide a better and deeper insight.

Economists, mathematicians, and to some degree, engineers have contributed to the development of game theory. In neoclassic economics, it is assumed that each economic agent has a rational behavior. According to the prediction model based on such an assumption, decision makers, if they sell goods and services, tend to maximize profit and if they buy tend to maximize utility. In other words, people naturally seek the best and the most. Moreover, decision making is based on the principle of “predict then act”. The individual first predicts the likely consequences of choices and attribute to them utilities. In the next step, an alternative is chosen that has the best consequence or the most utility. This camp or school is often called the normative decision analysis.

Nonetheless, empirical studies on the behavior of real decision makers demonstrate that despite the prediction of rational models of choice, the individuals or economic agents, do not always follow the principle of the best and the most. In 1950s, for instance, Herbert Simon showed that when faced with uncertainty and due to lack of information about the future, there are cognitive limits to rationality such that contrary to the neoclassic economic theory, people do not make decisions rationally and logically in search of the optimal alternative. Instead they seek a combination of satisfaction and sufficing levels of utility which is also called “satisficing”. This camp or school is often called the behavioral or descriptive decision analysis. To further explain, no one can claim that in a certain decision the best alternative has been chosen, regardless of the choice criteria or the ideal level of utility. Because there is always a better alternative than the best alternative known to us now. That better alternative either exists now beyond our awareness or will appear in the future. But we never can choose it if we do not know about it. In brief, we can possibly choose from a subset of the best, the best element.

In light of the flaws of the actual decision making by humans, we tend to recognize both the pros and cons of normative and descriptive decision analysis. Pioneers of decision analysis therefore have attempted to work on a new integral school that is wise enough and take into account the natural cognitive limits. This camp or school is often called the “prescriptive” decision analysis. The aim is to educate and train better decision makers, both individually and collectively. Our approach here to the question of anticipation is also integral and prescriptive.

Use of games in military planning, strategic thinking, and modern futures studies has a long tradition. Yet the approach is often experimental which means you need to play the game to learn and to capture the complexity and to encourage creativity in search of new deep insights. Another approach is analytical and you need to calculate to obtain and to develop some not trivial and not intuitive insights.

When more than one decision maker in a competitive or cooperative involve in decision situations, game theory is used to do decision analysis. Game theory is an analytical-mathematical framework to investigate the space of decision in strategic situations that involve conflicts of interests or conflict of preferred futures. A conflict of interest situation arises if two or multiple decision makers pursue different and opposing goals and there cannot be win-win situations. For example, in international futures, a rising and more assertive China will conflict with the hegemonic USA. Or in the case of personal futures, when several persons like to marry one person and therefore have to compete with each other.

The aim of game theory is to find the optimal strategy for each of the so-called players. Five key assumptions in the theory are:

1. Each player (decision maker) has at least two well defined alternatives or options of choice. Alternatives are indeed the plays by the players.
2. Each play ends in a well-defined outcome (win, lose, tie) when the game is over.
3. Each player attributes to each outcome a specific payoff or utility.
4. Each player knows the rules of the game and knows also the scores or utilities for other players per each outcome.
5. Each player plays rational. That is faced with at least two alternatives, the alternative with more payoff is chosen.

However, the assumptions number 4 and 5 are violated in the real world decision making. In particular, the rationality is challenged in the descriptive school as mentioned above

Now, after this brief introduction, we can address the question: “is anticipation a good strategy?”

We first introduce a game with simple rules and then explore the mathematical solution.

The game of rug or carpet is introduced like this:

Two persons are in bazaar. Someone who has two Oriental rugs comes close and offers them this: I want to give you these two rugs. If both of you accept the offer I will leave and never return. But if one of you do not accept the offer, tomorrow I will visit you again and bring a package with me. In that package there is either a rug or a carpet with a fifty-fifty chance. The carpet will value four times the rug. If both of you decline my today offer in anticipation of a carpet tomorrow, then one of you will receive nothing. If one of you decline my today offer in anticipation of tomorrow, then at least one rug will be the gain. If one accepts and the other one declines, the one who does not wait for tomorrow’s package can take both of the rugs. But whoever accepts today’s offer cannot anticipate anything in tomorrow’s prospect.

If the game of rug or carpet just described played in complete competition and both of the players express their choices simultaneously without knowing the choice of the other player, then it is reasonable to ask a challenging question that “is anticipation a good strategy” which has no trivial answer and needs an analytic investigation.

If players care about their own interests, then what they should do now. Is it better to anticipate a better offer tomorrow under any conditions? More specifically, if your competitor chooses anticipation with a 50% probability then what is the good strategy for you?

In the game of rug or carpet several factors such as patience, anticipation, risk, and competition are important. Descriptive school of decision science indicates that people are often risk averse with respect to gains and risk prone with respect to losses. In other words, humans would prefer the sure gain to the likely gain. This cognitive insight reveals that, our players will likely accept their one rugs and the game will be over. Therefore, no offer a package on tomorrow and no need for anticipation.

But a normative approach uncovers some points. Taking into account such points will be helpful in a prescriptive approach which aims to bridge the gap between rationality and reality of choice. First, note that if we assume that the players do not chose simultaneously, then the second player’s optimal choice will be to choose the opposite choice of the first player. This means that if the first player does not prefer to anticipate then the second player should anticipate the offer of tomorrow and vice versa. Clearly if the first player does not anticipate and accepts the offer then the second player in the case of not anticipation obtains a rug and in the case of anticipation obtains at least a rug. But given the likelihood of a carpet on tomorrow then anticipation is better.

In the case of simultaneous play, the strategy of opposite choice with “some considerations” is also good. By some considerations we mean the conjecture about the competitor’s choice. As a matter of fact, a player should guess either anticipation or not by the other player.

Suppose that these players have played this game many times in the past and player I has noted that player II often never anticipates. Player I is almost sure that that this time again Player II will not wait in anticipation of the package of tomorrow. Almost sure is a qualitative description for a probability distribution. Absolutely sure, very sure, almost sure, do not know, almost unlikely, very unlikely, and absolutely unlikely might be interpreted with quantitative estimates such 100%, 80–99%, 50–80%, 50%, 20–50%, 1–20%, and 0% respectively.

Either player should make a conjecture about the other player’s choice. There is a specific threshold, that can be calculated, which establishes the probability about the opponent’s choice such that the utility of anticipation versus not anticipation will be equal for either of players. That probability shows that when anticipation and not are indifferent.

To analyze and calculate that threshold probability we order the pairs of utilities like this: (a, a), (a, n), (n, a), and (n, n) where a is anticipation and n is not anticipation. For example, the ordered pair of (a, n) says that player I anticipates and player II does not anticipate.

Now to calculate the gains for each player we should compute the expected payoffs of all these pairs. If none anticipates, (n, n), then both will have one rug and therefore (n, n) = (1, 1). If player I does not anticipate and player II anticipates, (n, a), then player I will have two rugs, and player II will have a 50% chance of a rug, and a 50% chance of a carpet which values 4 times the rug. The expected gain for player II will be: 0.5*1+ 0.5*4= 2.5. Hence we have (n, a) = (2, 2.5). Similarly, we have (a, n) = (2.5, 2). For the case of that both players anticipate, one of them will have nothing. The expected gain for either of players will be: 0.5*2.5+ 0.5×0 = 1.25 and we have (a, a) = (1.25, 1.25).

Now suppose that player I guesses that player II will anticipate with probability P. If player I also anticipates the package of tomorrow then the expected gain will be a mix of (a, a) and (a, n) in this way: E(I_a) = (1.25) * P + (2.5) * (1-P). If player I does not anticipate then the expected gain will be a mix of (n, a) and (n, n) in this way: E (I_n) = (2) * P + (1) * (1-P). Depending on whether E(I_a) is larger or smaller or smaller than E (I_n) the player I will have a clear choice between either anticipation or not anticipation. But if they are equal for a specific probability of anticipation by player II, the player I will be indifferent between either choice. Let’s calculate that threshold probability.

E (I_a) = E (I_n)

(1.25) * P + (2.5) * (1-P) = (2) * P + (1) * (1-P)

1.5 = 2.25 P

P = 2÷3=0.7

This probability says that if player I thinks that player II will anticipate the package of tomorrow with a probability of 70% then player I will remain indifferent to prefer either anticipation or not anticipation. Any change to that estimate will give player I a clear choice. Consider that for instance that player I is very sure that player II will anticipate, i.e. P = 90 %, then E (I_a) will be less than E (I_n). Therefore, not anticipation for player I is the preferred choice.

Obviously, the threshold calculated above depends on the relative value of carpet to rug which we assumed to be 4. The deeper insight that is uncovered using this game is that for another threshold, this time involving the relative value of carpet (the potential reward of tomorrow for which anticipation is necessary) to the rug (the current reward of today without the need for anticipation). Such a threshold demonstrates that for a specific relative value of carpet to rug, the anticipation is the better choice, “regardless of our conjecture about the opponent’s probability of choosing either anticipation or not anticipation.” If we use the relative value of carpet to rug in the above calculation as an unknown parameter, X, it can be shown as noted below that the threshold of relative value is 7.

E (I_a) = E (I_n)

P*0.5*(0.5+0.5X) +0.5*(1+X) *(1-P) =2P+(1-P)

P = (0.5X-0.5)/(.25X+1.25) < =1

X<=7

In other words, if the relative value of carpet to rug in this game is more than 7 then the anticipation is a good strategy without any need to make a conjecture about the other player’s choice.

We usually face circumstances similar to the game of rug or carpet. Rug might be an acceptable alternative but not ideal or excellent yet better than nothing. Carpet might be a wonderful and top alternative which demands anticipation on our side. A job seeker who has to compete with other candidates figures out that if the current job or position offer is declined it is likely that in the future a far better offer could be found. Or consider someone who is looking to buy or rent a house. In case of more diligent search a far better house could be found in the market with the same price. Or if you refuse to marry your partner now in anticipation of a better ideal match in the future. Although, the conditions of such key decisions, in particular their emotional aspect, could not perfectly match the game of rug or carpet, the insights obtained from this analytical view, will be helpful for a better and reflective thinking about decisions.

In addition to the conjecture about the opponent’s choice, which was our focus, other factors are also relevant in a more realistic world of decision making such as time constraint, nature of the need or want, access to information, active search and supply and demand. Time is critical on two dimensions. One the distance between the first offer of rug and the second offer of a probable carpet. For instance, how long a job seeker can sustain the hardship associated with unemployment. Also, how much time pressure is upon us. For instance, someone looking for a best deal in the house market in anticipation of a yet better alternative will wait forever. Therefore, having a clear deadline and time schedule for anticipation is important. On the other hand, the nature of the need impacts the anticipation strategy. If it is a critical and elementary need then anticipation might not be justifiable. The more secondary and luxury our need the more reasonable to anticipate a far better future. We assumed that in the game of rug or carpet that players have information symmetry. In the real world, that is not the case always. Using my connections to professional networks, I might have been informed that soon in the future a highly respected employer will have vacant positions. But you do not have such an information advantage as my opponent. As a result, I will not be hesitant to anticipate. Active search while anticipating a far better future highlights the importance of a proactive attitude instead of inactive wait and see. If you wait for a 50% chance of carpet, the better future, you should be more active to change that likelihood up to 70% or 80%. Finally, the old rule of supply and demand applies. If you are in a highly competitive market in which peers attempt to obtain an average alternative and you are almost sure that the peers will not anticipate then it is wise to anticipate a far better alternative in the future in a market that is going to be less competitive because of less demand.

Another note involves the case of cooperation or sharing between players. Clearly they should coordinate to choose opposite alternatives because they will gain as a group either three rugs or two rugs plus a carpet. If both anticipate or both not anticipate they will gain as a group either a rug or carpet in one case and two rugs in the other case, respectively. Another assumption could be that each player not only wants to win a gain but also to make sure that the opponent will lose with less gains. Here the calculations should be revisited. In other words, each player needs to do exactly what the other player will do. If player I is very sure that player II will not anticipate then player I should also not anticipate to avoid giving two rugs to the gains of the opponent. And if player I is very sure that player II will anticipate then player I should also anticipate in order to have a 50% chance of keeping player II empty handed in the end.

About the Author: Victor V. Motti, a Lifeboat Foundation Advisory Board member, is a Middle East based senior adviser of strategic foresight and anticipation. He is also the Director of the World Futures Studies Federation. His new book A Transformation Journey to Creative and Alternative Planetary Futures was published in early 2019 in the UK.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmYj2MBfaZc&t=1s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fTuUOkxvTI&fbclid=IwAR3J6nkmZsHmzyEZ6zE9KqrpdiXgnOcoVgKhEvq6Q6bdptmRAdF1dK-i4Uk

The recent efforts to remove Net Neutrality have given many a sense of impending doom we are soon to face. What happens to an Internet without Net Neutrality? Advocates have a vision of the possible results — and it is quite the nightmare! In this segment of Future A to Z, The Galactic Public Archives takes a cheeky, yet compelling perspective on the issue.

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Transhumanists will know that the science fiction author Zoltan Istvan has unilaterally leveraged the movement into a political party contesting the 2016 US presidential election. To be sure, many transhumanists have contested Istvan’s own legitimacy, but there is no denying that he has generated enormous publicity for many key transhumanist ideas. Interestingly, his lead idea is that the state should do everything possible to uphold people’s right to live forever. Of course, he means to live forever in a healthy state, fit of mind and body. Istvan cleverly couches this policy as simply an extension of what voters already expect from medical research and welfare provision. And while he may be correct, the policy is fraught with hazards – especially if, as many transhumanists believe, we are on the verge of revealing the secrets to biological immortality.

In June, Istvan and I debated this matter at Brain Bar Budapest. Let me say, for the record, that I think that we are sufficiently close to this prospect that it is not too early to discuss its political and economic implications.

Two months before my encounter with Istvan, I was on a panel at the Edinburgh Science Festival with the great theorist of radical life extension Aubrey de Grey, where he declared that people who live indefinitely will seem like renovated vintage cars. Whatever else, he is suggesting that they would be frozen in time. He may actually be right about this. But is such a state desirable, given that throughout history radical change has been facilitated generational change? Specifically, two simple facts make the young open to doing things differently: The young have no memory of past practices working to anyone else’s benefit, and they have not had the time to invest in those practices to reap their benefits. Whatever good is to be found in the past is hearsay, as far as the young are concerned, which they are being asked to trust as they enter a world that they know is bound to change.

Questions have been already raised about whether tomorrow’s Methuselahs will wish to procreate at all, given the time available to them to realize dreams that in the past would have been transferred to their offspring. After all, as human life expectancy has increased 50% over the past century, the birth rate has correspondingly dropped. One can only imagine what will happen once ageing can be arrested, if not outright reversed!

So, where will the new ideas of the future come from? The worry here is that society may end up being ruled by people with overlong memories who value stability over change: Think China and Japan. But perhaps the old Soviet Union is the most telling example, as its self-consciously revolutionary image gradually morphed into a ritualistic veneration of the original 1917 revolutionary moment. To these gerontocratic indicators, the recent UK vote to leave the European Union (‘Brexit’) adds a new twist. There were some clear age-related patterns in the outcome: The older the voter, the more likely to vote to leave – and the more likely to vote at all. To be sure, given the closeness of the vote (52% to leave vs. 48% to remain), had the young voted in comparable numbers to their elders, Brexit would have lost.

One might think that the simple solution is to encourage, if not force, the young to vote in larger numbers. However, this does not take into account the liabilities of their elders when it comes to dictating the terms for living in the future. Whatever benefits might accrue to people living longer, the clarity of the memories of such people may not be an unmitigated good, as it might incline them to perpetuate what they regard as the best of their own pasts. One way around this situation is to weight votes inversely to age. In other words, the youngest voters would effectively get the most votes and the oldest voters the least. This would continually force the elders to make their case in terms that their juniors can appreciate. The exercise would serve to destabilize any sense of nostalgia that members of the same generation might experience simply by virtue of having experienced the same events at the same age.

However, two technologically based solutions also come to mind. One is for the elderly to be subject to the strategic memory loss procedure described in the film, The Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, which might be understood as a the cognitive correlate of an inheritance tax – or even a high-class lobotomy! In other words, the elders would lose their personal attachment to events which would nevertheless remain available in the historical record for more detached scrutiny vis-à-vis their lessons for the future. The other, more drastic solution involves incentivizing the elders to exchange biological for digital immortality. This would enable them to enjoy a virtual existence in perpetuity. They might be resurrected (‘downloaded’) on a regular or simply a need-to-remember basis, depending on prior contractual arrangements. The former might be seen as more ‘religious’, as in a Roman Catholic feast day, and the latter more ‘secular’, as in an ‘on tap’ consultant. But in either virtual form, the elders could retain their attachment to certain past events with impunity while at the same time not inflicting their memories needlessly on present generations.

David Wood, the head of the main UK transhumanist organization, London Futurists, has recently published a summa of anti-ageing arguments, which makes a cumulatively persuasive case for indefinite life extension being within our grasp. But most assuredly, this would create as many social problems as it solves biological ones. Under most direct threat would be the sorts of values historically associated with generational change, namely, those related to new thinking and fresh starts. Of course, as I have suggested, there are ways around this, but they will invariably revive in a new high-tech key classic debates concerning the desirability of brainwashing and suicide.

At least in public relations terms, transhumanism is a house divided against itself. On the one hand, there are the ingenious efforts of Zoltan Istvan – in the guise of an ongoing US presidential bid — to promote an upbeat image of the movement by focusing on human life extension and other tech-based forms of empowerment that might appeal to ordinary voters. On the other hand, there is transhumanism’s image in the ‘serious’ mainstream media, which is currently dominated by Nick Bostrom’s warnings of a superintelligence-based apocalypse. The smart machines will eat not only our jobs but eat us as well, if we don’t introduce enough security measures.

Of course, as a founder of contemporary transhumanism, Bostrom does not wish to stop artificial intelligence research, and he ultimately believes that we can prevent worst case scenarios if we act now. Thus, we see a growing trade in the management of ‘existential risks’, which focusses on how we might prevent if not predict any such tech-based species-annihilating prospects. Nevertheless, this turn of events has made some observers reasonably wonder whether indeed it might not be better simply to put a halt to artificial intelligence research altogether. As a result, the precautionary principle, previously invoked in the context of environmental and health policy, has been given a new lease on life as generalized world-view.

The idea of ‘existential risk’ capitalizes on the prospect of a very unlikely event that, were it to pass, would be extremely catastrophic for the human condition. Thus, the high value of the outcome psychologically counterbalances its low probability. It’s a bit like Pascal’s wager, whereby the potentially negative consequences of you not believing in God – to wit, eternal damnation — rationally compels you to believe in God, despite your instinctive doubts about the deity’s existence.

However, this line of reasoning underestimates both the weakness and the strength of human intelligence. On the one hand, we’re not so powerful as to create a ‘weapon of mass destruction’, however defined, that could annihilate all of humanity; on the other, we’re not so weak as to be unable to recover from whatever errors of design or judgement that might be committed in the normal advance of science and technology in the human life-world. I make this point not to counsel complacency but to question whether ‘existential risk’ is really the high concept that it is cracked up to be. I don’t believe it is.

In fact, we would do better to revisit the signature Cold War way of thinking about these matters, which the RAND Corporation strategist Herman Kahn dubbed ‘thinking the unthinkable’. What he had in mind was the aftermath of a thermonuclear war in which, say, 25–50% of the world’s population is wiped out over a relatively short period of time. How do we rebuild humanity under those circumstances? This is not so different from ‘the worst case scenarios’ proposed nowadays, even under conditions of severe global warming. Kahn’s point was that we need now to come up with the relevant new technologies that would be necessary the day after Doomsday. Moreover, such a strategy was likely to be politically more tractable than trying actively to prevent Doomsday, say, through unilateral nuclear disarmament.

And indeed, we did largely follow Kahn’s advice. And precisely because Doomsday never happened, we ended up in peacetime with the riches that we have come to associate with Silicon Valley, a major beneficiary of the US federal largesse during the Cold War. The internet was developed as a distributed communication network in case the more centralized telephone system were taken down during a nuclear attack. This sort of ‘ahead of the curve’ thinking is characteristic of military-based innovation generally. Warfare focuses minds on what’s dispensable and what’s necessary to preserve – and indeed, how to enhance that which is necessary to preserve. It is truly a context in which we can say that ‘necessity is the mother of invention’. Once again, and most importantly, we win even – and especially – if Doomsday never happens.

An interesting economic precedent for this general line of thought, which I have associated with transhumanism’s ‘proactionary principle’, is what the mid-twentieth century Harvard economic historian Alexander Gerschenkron called ‘the relative advantage of backwardness’. The basic idea is that each successive nation can industrialise more quickly by learning from its predecessors without having to follow in their footsteps. The ‘learning’ amounts to innovating more efficient means of achieving and often surpassing the predecessors’ level of development. The post-catastrophic humanity would be in a similar position to benefit from this sense of ‘backwardness’ on a global scale vis-à-vis the pre-catastrophic humanity.

Doomsday scenarios invariably invite discussions of our species’ ‘resilience’ and ‘adaptability’, but these terms are far from clear. I prefer to start with a distinction drawn in cognitive archaeology between ‘reliable’ and ‘maintainable’ artefacts. Reliable artefacts tend to be ‘overdesigned’, which is to say, they can handle all the anticipated forms of stress, but most of those never happen. Maintainable artefacts tend to be ‘underdesigned’, which means that they make it easy for the user to make replacements when disasters strike, which are assumed to be unpredictable.

In a sense, ‘resilience’ and ‘adaptability’ could be identified with either position, but the Cold War’s proactionary approach to Doomsday suggests that the latter would be preferable. In other words, we want a society that is not so dependent on the likely scenarios – including the likely negative ones — that we couldn’t cope in case a very unlikely, very negative scenario comes to pass. Recalling US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s game-theoretic formulation, we need to address the ‘unknown unknowns’, not merely the ‘known unknowns’. Good candidates for the relevant ‘unknown unknowns’ are the interaction effects of relatively independent research and societal trends, which while benign in themselves may produce malign consequences — call them ‘emergent’, if you wish.

It is now time for social scientists to present both expert and lay subjects with such emergent scenarios and ask them to pinpoint their ‘negativity’: What would be potentially lost in the various scenarios which would be vital to sustain the ‘human condition’, however defined? The answers would provide the basis for future innovation policy – namely, to recover if not strengthen these vital features in a new guise. Even if the resulting innovations prove unnecessary in the sense that the Doomsday scenarios don’t come to pass, nevertheless they will make our normal lives better – as has been the long-term effect of the Cold War.

References

Bleed, P. (1986). ‘The optimal design of hunting weapons: Maintainability or reliability?’ American Antiquity 51: 737– 47.

Bostrom, N. (2014). Superintelligence. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Fuller, S. and Lipinska, V. (2014). The Proactionary Imperative. London: Palgrave (pp. 35–36).

Gerschenkron, A. (1962). Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective. Cambridge MA: Harvard University Press.

Kahn, H. (1960). On Thermonuclear War. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

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