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SIMPLICITY DEATH! By Mr. Andres Agostini

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(PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SUBJECT MATTER AS IT WOULD BE AMPLIFIED IN FUTURE NEW ARTICLES UNDER THE SAME TITLE).

I will give you some considerations excerpted from the White Swan book ( ASIN: B00KMY0DLK ) to show that Simplicity, via Technological, Social, Political, Geopolitical, and Economic Changes, is OUTRIGHT OBSOLETE and there is now ONLY: COMPLEXITY AND THE POWER OF COMPLEXITY.

THEREFORE:

FOR EXAMPLE # 1. PLEASE SEE THIS:

PHENOMENA HAPPENING NOW:

The Death Of Distance
The Death Of Permanence
The Death Of Stability
The Death Of Analogue
The Death Of Linearity
The Death Of Simplicity
The Death Of Arithmetic
The Death Of Foresought
The Death Of Forewarning
And a long so forth.

ALSO:

FOR EXAMPLE # 2. PLEASE SEE THIS:

(LET US FORGET ABOUT RUSSIA, CHINA, ISIS, EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES AND EXTREME GEOPOLITCS FOR A WHILE AND CHECK OUT THE MORE EVIDENT FOREGROUNG TAKING PLACE).

FIRST. THE OIL PRICES GO DOWN.

SECOND. THE WORLD ORDER FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGES INTO UNKNOWNS.

THIRD. GLOBAL ECONOMY IS MORE A LONG THE LINES OF THE WORSEN GREAT DEPRESSION OR EVEN WORSE. SOVEREIGN DEBTS IN THE DEVELOPED WORLD COULD NOT BE MORE OFFENSIVE. ALL GLOBAL RESERVE CURRENCY, PERHAPS, JUST PERHAPS, MAY END UP WORTHLESS. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS, REMEMBER THAT CENTRAL BANKERS ARE PRINTING WORTHLESS MONEY AND FURTHER DEVALUATING IT WHILE STOCK BANKERS AND TRADERS ARE OVER-DOCTORING THE ALGORITHMS THAT REGULATE STOCK MARKETS.

FOURTH. STRUCTURAL AND OUTRIGHT UNIVERSAL UNEMPLOYMENT HAWKISGHLY RULE, ALSO AS A CONSEQUENCE OF PERVASIVE COMPUTING, AUTOMATION, ROBOTICS, AND STRONG ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.

FIFTH. PETTY WARS AND MANY REVOLUTIONS AND UPRISINGS ALL OVER THE PLACE AND LARGE INTRACTABLE WARS EMERGE.

AND:

FOR EXAMPLE # 3. PLEASE SEE THIS:

(REMEMBER IF AT WAGING CONVENTIONAL WARS, HI-TECH AND HARD SCIENCE WILL BE INFINETLY MORE AMPLIFIED, THAT IS: AT A GROWTH RATE BEYOND EXPONENTIAL):

Please see the following:

“… BEGINNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE IN THE KNOWN WORLD AT THE TIME OF CHRIST, STUDIES HAVE ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD’S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013 …”

AND TO UNDERPIN THE PRECEDING PARAGRAPH, LET US ALSO CONSIDER THE WORDS OF BILL GATES:

On Mar 24, 1999 Microsoft Chairman, and today’s smartest and wealthiest person, gave, in hard writing (ISBN: 978–0446525688), a pervasive forewarning that 96.357% of the people, with their intrinsically and un-salvageably linear and unprepared minds, utterly ignored.

This is the verbatim forewarning:

“ … We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years [2001] and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten [2011] …” — Bill Gates. Brackets by the Author.

Thereby, let us continue with the White Swan Preface.

New applied knowledge, new science and new technologies are going to change (“…creatively-disrupt…”) it all (along with omnipresent trade and automation) right now, including every industry in the marketplace.

And subsequently, every industry’s manager and hence management beginning time immemorial.

To give the reader a meaningful view on the proceeding, Stanford University, by way of example, observes,

“…The ubiquity and variability of organizations means there is ample room for complexity and confusion in the organizational challenges we regularly face …”

AS WE ALL DISTINGUISH THAT NOVEL KNOWLEDGE IS SIGNIFICANTLY AND DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE MANAGEMENT PROFESSION, PLEASE SEE THEN HEREBY WHAT IS EXACTLY HAPPENING TO SCIENTIFIC PROGRESSION AND TECHNOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE TODAY:

(The White Swan POV will resume thereafter).

BEGINNING OF THE CITATION:

1.-) “…HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]…” [226]

2.-) “…COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS…” [226]

3.-) “… BEGINNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE IN THE KNOWN WORLD AT THE TIME OF CHRIST, STUDIES HAVE ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD’S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013 …” [226]

4.- ) “…KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING BY EVERY FOURTEEN MONTHS…” [226]

5.-) “…MORE THAN THE DOUBLING OF COMPUTATIONAL POWER [IS TAKING PLACE] EVERY YEAR…” [226]

6.-) “…The flattening of the world is going to be hugely disruptive to both traditional and developed societies. The weak will fall further behind faster. The traditional will feel the force of modernization much more profoundly. The new will get turned into old quicker. The developed will be challenged by the underdeveloped much more profoundly. I worry, because so much political stability is built on economic stability, and economic stability is not going to be a feature of the flat world. Add it all up and you can see that the disruptions and going to come faster and harder. No one is immune — not me, not you, not Microsoft. WE ARE ENTERING AN ERA OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION ON STEROIDS. Dealing with flatism is going to be a challenge of a whole new dimension even if your country has a strategy. But if you don’t have a strategy at all, well, again, you’ve warned…” [226]

7.-) “…By the end of the twentieth century, science had reached the end of an era, unlocking the secrets of the atom, unraveling the molecule of life, and creating the electronic computer. With these three fundamental discoveries, triggered by the quantum revolution, the DNA revolution, and the computer revolution, the basic laws of matter, life, and computation were, in the main, finally solved [….] That epic phase of science is now drawing to a close; one era is ending and another is only beginning [….] The next era of science promises to be an even deeper, more thoroughgoing, more penetrating one than the last [….] Clearly, we are on the threshold of yet another revolution. HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history. COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS …” Brackets are of the author.

ATTENTION: REPEATED DOUBLING MAKES THINGS VERY BIG, VERY FAST. TWENTY DOUBLINGS YIELD ABOUT A MILLIONFOLD INCREASE.

And 7.-) above continues here:

“… Almost daily, the headlines herald new advances in computers, telecommunications, biotechnology, and space exploration. In the wake of this technological upheaval, entire industries and lifestyles are being overturned, only to give rise to entirely new ones. But these rapid, bewildering changes are not just quantitative. They mark the birth pangs of a new era [….] FROM NOW TO THE YEAR 2020, SCIENTISTS FORESEE AN EXPLOSION IN SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY SUCH AS THE WORLD HAS NEVER SEEN BEFORE. IN TWO KEY TECHNOLOGIES, COMPUTER POWER AND THE DNA SEQUENCING, WE WILL SEE ENTIRE INDUSTRIES RISE AND FALL ON THE BASIS OF BREATHTAKING SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES. SINCE THE 1950S, THE POWER OF OUR COMPUTERS HAS ADVANCED BY A FACTOR OF ROUGHLY TEN BILLION. IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE … ”

And 7.-) above continues here:

“ … BY 2020, MICROPROCESSORS WILL LIKELY BE AS A CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL AS SCRAP PAPER, SCATTERED BY THE MILLIONS INTO ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING US TO PLACE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING AROUND US, INCLUDING THE NATURE OF COMMERCE, THE WEALTH OF NATIONS, AND THE WAY WE COMMUNICATE, WORK, PLAY, AND LIVE … ” [226]

8.-) “… The knowledge revolution is taking place in small, sharply defined areas. One company generates more U.S. patents than 139 countries do together … This [revolution] generates new EMPIRES and new ghettos [….] It slams into existing systems and destroys them while creating new systems. Countries and individuals can either surf new and powerful waves of change — or try to stop them and get crushed …” [226]

9.-) “… Nanotechnologies are broad concept, it’s simply refers to technology where the key features in measuring the small number of nanometers. A NANOMETER IS THE DIAMETER OF FIVE CARBON ATOMS SO IT’S VERY CLOSE TO THE MOLECULAR LEVEL AND WE ALREADY HAVE NEW MATERIALS AND DEVICES THAT HAD BEEN MANUFACTURED AT THE NANOSCALE. IN FACT, CHIPS TODAY, THE KEY FEATURES ARE 50 OR 60 NANOMETERS SO THAT IS ALREADY NANOTECHNOLOGY. The true promise of nanotechnology is that ultimately we’ll be able to create devices that are manufactured at the molecular level by putting together, molecular fragments in new combinations so, I can send you an information file and a desktop nanofactory will assemble molecules according to the definition in the file and create a physical objects so I can e-mail you a pair of trousers or a module to build housing or a solar panel and WE’LL BE ABLE TO CREATE JUST ABOUT ANYTHING WE NEED IN THE PHYSICAL WORLD FROM INFORMATION FILES WITH VERY INEXPENSIVE INPUT MATERIALS. You can… I mean, just a few years ago if I wanted to send you a movie or a book or a recorded album, I would send you a FedEx package, now I can e-mail you an attachment and you can create a movie or a book from that …”

And 9.-) above continues here:

“ … On the future, I’ll be able to e-mail you a blouse or a meal. So, that’s the promise of nanotechnology. Another promise is to be able to create devices that are size of blood cells and by the way biology is an example of nanotechnology, the key features of biology are at the molecular level. SO, THAT’S ACTUALLY THE EXISTENCE PROOF THAT NANOTECHNOLOGY IS FEASIBLE BUT BIOLOGY IS BASED ON LIMITED SIDE OF MATERIALS. EVERYTHING IS BUILT OUT OF PROTEINS AND THAT’S A LIMITED CLASS OF SUBSTANCES. WITH NANOTECHNOLOGY WE CAN CREATE THINGS THAT ARE FAR MORE DURABLE AND FAR MORE POWERFUL. One scientist designed a robotic red blood cell it’s a thousand times more powerful than the biological version so, if you were to replace a portion of your biological red blood cells with this respirocytes the robotic versions. You could do an Olympic sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath or sit at the bottom of your pool for 4 hours …”

And 9.-) above continues here:

“ … If I were to say someday you’ll have millions or even billions of these nanobots, nano-robots, blood cell size devices going through your body and keeping you healthy from inside, I might think well, that sounds awfully futuristic. I’d point out this already in 50 experiments in animals of doing exactly that with the first generation of nano engineered blood cell size devices. One scientist cured type-1 diabetes in rats with the blood cell size device. Seven nanometer pores let’s insulin out in the controlled fashion. At MIT, there’s a blood cell size device that can detect and destroy cancer cells in the bloodstream. These are early experiments but KEEP IN MIND THAT BECAUSE OF THE EXPONENTIAL PROGRESSION OF THIS TECHNOLOGY, THESE TECHNOLOGIES WILL BE A BILLION TIMES MORE POWERFUL IN 25 YEARS AND YOU GET SOME IDEA WHAT WILL BE FEASIBLE …” [226]

BEFORE GOING AHEAD TO CITATION “10.-)”, LET US CONSIDER THIS CITATION ON TECHNOLOGY:

“ … Kevin Kelly, for instance, convincingly portrays technology as a partner in human evolution. In his book What Technology Want [ISBN: 978–0143120179], he makes the case that technology is emerging as the ‘seventh kingdom of life on Earth’ — along with plants, insects, fungi, and so on … KELLY ALSO HOLDS THAT TECHNOLOGY’S GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT IS INEVITABLE, EVEN DESIRABLE. YES, CERTAIN TECHNOLOGIES CREATE PROBLEMS, but that just opens the opportunity for yet another technology to mitigate the bad. Isn’t that just and endless loop of negative and positive outcomes, in which humanity is eventually frayed beyond repair? Kelly disagrees: « … I DON’T THINK TECHNOLOGY IS NEUTRAL OR A WASH OF GOOD AND BAD EFFECTS. TO BE SURE IT DOES PRODUCE BOTH PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS, BUT THE CHIEF EFFECT IS THAT IT PRODUCES MORE POSSIBILITIES. MORE OPTIONS. MORE FREEDOM, ESSENTIALLY. THAT’S REALLY GOOD. THAT IS THE REASON WHY PEOPLE MOVE TO CITIES — FOR MORE CHOICES … » [….] Where it gets discomfiting, however, is when Kelly insists on technology’s all-consuming nature. ’ … It is an ever-elaborate tool that we wield and continually update to improve our world; and it is an ever-ripening superorganism, of which we are but a part, that is following a direction beyond our own making. Humans are both master and slave to the techium [his word for the technological universe], and our fate is to remain in this uncomfortable dual role …’ [….] There is no way back, only through. Kelly admonishes us to ‘… align ourselves with the imperative of the technium …’ because to do otherwise would be to ’ … resist our second self …’ [….] Humanity and technology — like humanity and the zombies — are ultimately indistinguishable. ’ … The conflict that the technium triggers in our hearts is due to our refusal to accept our nature — the truth is that we are continuous with the machines we create … When we reject technology as a whole, it a brand of self-hatred …’ [….] But isn’t the acceptance of humanity as a component part of technology also a form of self-hatred? KELLY SEES A SINGLE THREAD OF SELF-GENERATION TYING TOGETHER THE COSMOS, THE BIOS, AND THE TECHNOS INTO ONE ACT OF CREATION. ’ … HUMANS ARE NOT THE CULMINATION OF THIS TRAJECTORY BUT AN INTERMEDIARY, SMACK IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN THE BORN AND THE MADE …’ [….] WE MUST EITHER ACCEPT TECHNOLOGY AS OUR INEVITABLE OFFSPRING AND SUCCESSOR, OR ’ … REJECT TECHNOLOGY AS A WHOLE …’ [….] In Kelly’s schema, there is no sustainable happy medium. Isn’t there the possibility for a less dramatic, less apocalyptic middle ground? …” [252] Brackets are of the Author.

NOW, LET US CONTINUE WITH CITATION NUMBER “10.-)”:

10.-) “…The world has profoundly changed [….] The challenges and complexity we face in our personal lives and relationships, in our families, in our professional lives, and in our organizations are of a different order of magnitude. In fact, many mark 1989 — the year we witnessed the fall of the Berlin Wall — as the beginning of the Information Age, the birth of a new reality, a sea change of incredible significance — truly a new era — Being effective as individuals and organizations is no longer merely an option — survival in today’s world requires it. But, in order to thrive, innovate, excel, and lead in what Covey calls the new Knowledge Worker Age, we must build on and move beyond effectiveness [long-held assumptions, fallacies, falsehoods and flawed beliefs and faulty conventions]…Hence, accessing the higher levels of human genius and motivation in today’s new reality REQUIRES A SEA CHANGE IN THINKING: a new mind-sets, a new skill-set, a new tool-set — in short, a whole new habit…” [226] Brackets are of the author.

Back to the SIMPLICITY END hardcore:

AS WELL, SO IMPORTANT:

When dealing with an ample-conception of “…System…”, IF YOU FIND THERE SIMPLICITY, IT IS BECAUSE YOUR THOUGHT PROCESS IS FLAWED AND INCOMPLETE. And the reader might as well not be understanding the underlying processes to the corresponding thought process.

AND, FOR INSTANCE:

Complication and complexity are nonlinear (In S-Curves) blessings when you have endowed your mind with preparedness, in order to deal with and through them.

Back to the SIMPLICITY END hardcore:

SINE QUA NON:

Common sense is radically replaced by APPLIED SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE.

So called “…out of the box…” thinking is impious and outrageous mediocrity by the 21st-century standards and practices.

“…Out of the box…” thinking will bankrupt you or your government easily and without a fail.

AND THE “…POWER OF SIMPLICITY…,” unless it is applied by a consummated polymath, is a chat about rubbish.

WE LIVE IN A WORLD IN WHICH THE POWER OF COMPLEXITY, RANDOMNESS AND PSEUDO-RANDOMNESS RULES DICTATORIALLY. PSEUDO-SERENDIPITY, INFINITELY MORE THAN PLAIN-VANILLA SERENDIPITY, IS A SELF-INFLICTED RULER BY AN EQUIVALENT TO THE TUDOR FAMILY.

MANAGING IS AN ART, PRACTICE, METHODOLOGY, TECHNOLOGY AND HARD SCIENCE.

ALSO:

To give the reader a meaningful view on the proceeding, Stanford University, by way of example, observes,

“…The ubiquity and variability of organizations means there is AMPLE ROOM FOR COMPLEXITY AND CONFUSION in the organizational challenges we regularly face …”

FOR EXAMPLE # 4. PLEASE SEE THIS:

“…The world has profoundly changed [….] The challenges and complexity we face in our personal lives and relationships, in our families, in our professional lives, and in our organizations are of a different order of magnitude. In fact, many mark 1989 — the year we witnessed the fall of the Berlin Wall — as the beginning of the Information Age, the birth of a new reality, a sea change of incredible significance — truly a new era — Being effective as individuals and organizations is no longer merely an option — survival in today’s world requires it. But, in order to thrive, innovate, excel, and lead in what Covey calls the new Knowledge Worker Age, we must build on and move beyond effectiveness [long-held assumptions, fallacies, falsehoods and flawed beliefs and faulty conventions]…Hence, accessing the higher levels of human genius and motivation in today’s new reality REQUIRES A SEA CHANGE IN THINKING: a new mind-sets, a new skill-set, a new tool-set — in short, a whole new habit…” [226] Brackets are of the author.

FOR EXAMPLE # 5. PLEASE SEE THIS:

“ … How do we know that change is accelerating? There is, after all, no absolute way to measure change. In the awesome complexity of the universe, even within any given society, a virtually infinite number of streams of change occur simultaneously. All ‘things’—from the tiniest virus to the greatest galaxy—are, in reality, not things at all, but processes. There is no static point, no nirvana-like un-change, against which to measure change. Change is, therefore, necessarily relative [….] It is also uneven. If all processes occurred at the same speed, or even if they accelerated or decelerated in unison, it would be impossible to observe change. The future, however, invades the present at differing speeds. Thus it becomes possible to compare the speed of different processes as they unfold. We know, for example, that compared with the biological evolution of the species, cultural and social evolution is extremely rapid. We know that some societies transform themselves technologically or economically more rapidly than others. We also know that different sectors within the same society exhibit different rates of change—the disparity that William Ogburn labeled ‘cultural lag.’ It is precisely the unevenness of change that makes it measurable [….] We need, however, a yardstick that makes it possible to compare highly diverse processes, and this yardstick is time. Without time, change has no meaning. And without change, time would stop. Time can be conceived as the intervals during which events occur. Just as money permits us to place a value on both apples and oranges, time permits us to compare unlike processes. When we say that it takes three years to build a dam, we are really saying it takes three times as long as it takes the earth to circle the sun or 31,000,000 times as long as it takes to sharpen a pencil. Time is the currency of exchange that makes it possible to compare the rates at which very different processes play themselves out [….] Given the unevenness of change and armed with this yardstick, we still face exhausting difficulties in measuring change. When we speak of the rate of change, we refer to the number of events crowded into an arbitrarily fixed interval of time. Thus we need to define the ‘events.’ We need to select our intervals with precision. We need to be careful about the conclusions we draw from the differences we observe. Moreover, in the measurement of change, we are today far more advanced with respect to physical processes than social processes. We know far better, for example, how to measure the rate at which blood flows through the body than the rate at which a rumor flows through society. Even with all these qualifications, however, there is widespread agreement, reaching from historians and archaeologists all across the spectrum to scientists, sociologists, economists and psychologists, that, many social processes are speeding up—strikingly, even spectacularly [….] Painting with the broadest of brush strokes, biologist Julian Huxley informs us that ‘The tempo of human evolution during recorded history is at least 100,000 times as rapid as that of pre-human evolution.’ Inventions or improvements of a magnitude that took perhaps 50,000 years to accomplish during the early Paleolithic era were, he says, ‘run through in a mere millennium toward its close; and with the advent of settled civilization, the unit of change soon became reduced to the century.’ The rate of change, accelerating throughout the past 5,000 years, has become, in his words, ‘particularly noticeable during the past 300 years.’ C. P. Snow, the novelist and scientist, also comments on the new visibility of change. ‘Until this century …’ he writes, social change was ‘so slow, that it would pass unnoticed in one person’s lifetime. That is no longer so. The rate of change has increased so much that our imagination can’t keep up.’ Indeed, says social psychologist Warren Bennis, the throttle has been pushed so far forward in recent years that ‘No exaggeration, no hyperbole, no outrage can realistically describe the extent and pace of change.… In fact, only the exaggerations appear to be true.’ [….] What changes justify such super-charged language? Let us look at a few—change in the process by which man forms cities, for example. We are now undergoing the most extensive and rapid urbanization the world has ever seen. In 1850 only four cities on the face of the earth had a population of 1,000,000 or more. By 1900 the number had increased to nineteen. But by 1960, there were 141, and today world urban population is rocketing upward at a rate of 6.5 percent per year, according to Edgar de Vries and J. P. Thysse of the Institute of Social Science in The Hague. THIS SINGLE STARK STATISTIC MEANS A DOUBLING OF THE EARTH’S URBAN POPULATION WITHIN ELEVEN YEARS [….] One way to grasp the meaning of change on so phenomenal a scale is to imagine what would happen if all existing cities, instead of expanding, retained their present size. If this were so, in order to accommodate the new urban millions we would have to build a duplicate city for each of the hundreds that already dot the globe. A new Tokyo, a new Hamburg, a new Rome and Rangoon—and all within eleven years. (This explains why French urban planners are sketching subterranean cities—stores, museums, warehouses and factories to be built under the earth, and why a Japanese architect has blueprinted a city to be built on stiltsout over the ocean.) [….] The same accelerative tendency is instantly apparent in man’s consumption of energy. Dr. Homi Bhabha, the late Indian atomic scientist who chaired the first International Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy, once analyzed this trend. ‘To illustrate,’ he said, ‘let us use the letter ‘Q’ to stand for the energy derived from burning some 33,000 million tons of coal. In the eighteen and one half centuries after Christ, the total energy consumed averaged less than one half Q per century. But by 1850, the rate had risen to one Q per century. Today, the rate is about ten Q per century.’ This means, roughly speaking, that half of all the energy consumed by man in the past 2,000 years has been consumed in the last one hundred [….] WHAT SUCH NUMBERS IMPLY IS NOTHING LESS REVOLUTIONARY THAN A DOUBLING OF THE TOTAL OUTPUT OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN THE ADVANCED SOCIETIES ABOUT EVERY FIFTEEN YEARS—AND THE DOUBLING TIMES ARE SHRINKING. This means, generally speaking, that the child reaching teen age in any of these societies is literally surrounded by twice as much of everything newly manmade as his parents were at the time he was an infant. It means that by the time today’s teenager reaches age thirty, perhaps earlier, a second doubling will have occurred. WITHIN A SEVENTY-YEAR LIFETIME, PERHAPS FIVE SUCH DOUBLINGS WILL TAKE PLACE—MEANING, SINCE THE INCREASES ARE COMPOUNDED, THAT BY THE TIME THE INDIVIDUAL REACHES OLD AGE THE SOCIETY AROUND HIM WILL BE PRODUCING THIRTY-TWO TIMES AS MUCH AS WHEN HE WAS BORN [….] Such changes in the ratio between old and new have, as we shall show, an electric impact on the habits, beliefs, and self-image of millions. Never in previous history has this ratio been transformed so radically in so brief a flick of time [….] Behind such prodigious economic facts lies that great, growling engine of change— technology. This is not to say that technology is the only source of change in society. Social upheavals can be touched off by a change in the chemical composition of the atmosphere, by alterations in climate, by changes in fertility, and many other factors. Yet technology is indisputably a major force behind the accelerative thrust [….] To most people, the term technology conjures up images of smoky steel mills or clanking machines. Perhaps the classic symbol of technology is still the assembly line created by Henry Ford half a century ago and made into a potent social icon by Charlie Chaplin in Modern Times. This symbol, however, has always been inadequate, indeed, misleading, for technology has always been more than factories and machines. The invention of the horse collar in the middle ages led to major changes in agricultural methods and was as much a technological advance as the invention of the Bessemer furnace centuries later. Moreover, technology includes techniques, as well as the machines that may or may not be necessary to apply them. It includes ways to make chemical reactions occur, ways to breed fish, plant forests, light theaters, count votes or teach history [….] The old symbols of technology are even more misleading today, when the most advanced technological processes are carried out far from assembly lines or open hearths. Indeed, in electronics, in space technology, in most of the new industries, relative silence and clean surroundings are characteristic—even sometimes essential. And the assembly line—the organization of armies of men to carry out simple repetitive functions—is an anachronism. It is time for our symbols of technology to change—to catch up with the quickening changes in technology, itself [….] This acceleration is frequently dramatized by a thumbnail account of the progress in transportation. It has been pointed out, for example, that in 6000 B.C. the fastest transportation available to man over long distances was the camel caravan, averaging eight miles per hour. It was not until about 1600 B.C. when the chariot was invented that the maximum speed was raised to roughly twenty miles per hour. So impressive was this invention, so difficult was it to exceed this speed limit, that nearly 3,500 years later, when the first mail coach began operating in England in 1784, it averaged a mere ten mph. The first steam locomotive, introduced in 1825, could muster a top speed of only thirteen mph, and the great sailing ships of the time labored along at less than half that speed. It was probably not until the 1880’s that man, with the help of a more advanced steam locomotive, managed to reach a speed of one hundred mph. It took the human race millions of years to attain that record [….] It took only fifty-eight years, however, to quadruple the limit, so that by 1938 airborne man was cracking the 400-mph line. It took a mere twenty-year flick of time to double the limit again. And by the 1960’s rocket planes approached speeds of 4000 mph, and men in space capsules were circling the earth at 18,000 mph. Plotted on a graph, the line representing progress in the past generation would leap vertically off the page [….] Whether we examine distances traveled, altitudes reached, minerals mined, or explosive power harnessed, the same accelerative trend is obvious. The pattern, here and in a thousand other statistical series, is absolutely clear and unmistakable. Millennia or centuries go by, and then, in our own times, a sudden bursting of the limits, a fantastic spurt forward. The reason for this is that technology feeds on itself. Technology makes more technology possible, as we can see if we look for a moment at the process of innovation. Technological innovation consists of three stages, linked together into a self-reinforcing cycle. First, there is the creative, feasible idea. Second, its practical application. Third, its diffusion through society [….] The process is completed, the loop closed, when the diffusion of technology embodying the new idea, in turn, helps generate new creative ideas. Today there is evidence that the time between each of the steps in this cycle has been shortened. Thus it is not merely true, as frequently noted, that 90 percent of all the scientists who ever lived are now alive, and that new scientific discoveries are being made every day. These new ideas are put to work much more quickly than ever before. The time between original concept and practical use has been radically reduced. This is a striking difference between ourselves and our ancestors. Appollonius of Perga discovered conic sections, but it was 2000 years before they were applied to engineering problems. It was literally centuries between the time Paracelsus discovered that ether could be used as an anaesthetic and the time it began to be used for that purpose [….] Even in more recent times the same pattern of delay was present. In 1836 a machine was invented that mowed, threshed, tied straw into sheaves and poured grain into sacks. This machine was itself based on technology at least twenty years old at the time. Yet it was not until a century later, in the 1930’s, that such a combine was actually marketed. The first English patent for a typewriter was issued in 1714. But a century and a half elapsed before typewriters became commercially available. A full century passed between the time Nicholas Appert discovered how to can food and the time canning became important in the food industry [….] Today such delays between idea and application are almost unthinkable. It is not that we are more eager or less lazy than our ancestors, but we have, with the passage of time, invented all sorts of social devices to hasten the process. Thus we find that the time between the first and second stages of the innovative cycle—between idea and application—has been cut radically. Frank Lynn, for example, in studying twenty major innovations, such as frozen food, antibiotics, integrated circuits and synthetic leather, found that since the beginning of this century more than sixty percent has been slashed from the average time needed for a major scientific discovery to be translated into a useful technological form. Today a vast and growing research and development industry is consciously working to reduce the lag still further [….] But if it takes less time to bring a new idea to the marketplace, it also takes less time for it to sweep through the society. Thus the interval between the second and third stages of the cycle—between application and diffusion—has likewise been sliced, and the pace of diffusion is rising with astonishing speed. This is borne out by the history of several familiar household appliances. Robert B. Young at the Stanford Research Institute has studied the span of time between the first commercial appearance of a new electrical appliance and the time the industry manufacturing it reaches peak production of the item [….] Young found that for a group of appliances introduced in the United States before 1920—including the vacuum cleaner, the electric range, and the refrigerator—the average span between introduction and peak production was thirty-four years. But for a group that appeared in the 1939–1959 period—including the electric frying pan, television, and washerdryer combination—the span was only eight years. The lag had shrunk by more than 76 percent. ‘The post-war group,’ Young declared, ‘demonstrated vividly the rapidly accelerating nature of the modern cycle.’ [….] The stepped-up pace of invention, exploitation, and diffusion, in turn, accelerates the whole cycle still further. For new machines or techniques are not merely a product, but a source, of fresh creative ideas [….] Each new machine or technique, in a sense, changes all existing machines and techniques, by permitting us to put them together into new combinations. The number of possible combinations rises exponentially as the number of new machines or techniques rises arithmetically. Indeed, each new combination may, itself, be regarded as a new supermachine [….] The computer, for example, made possible a sophisticated space effort. Linked with sensing devices, communications equipment, and power sources, the computer became part of a configuration that in aggregate forms a single new super-machine—a machine for reaching into and probing outer space. But for machines or techniques to be combined in new ways, they have to be altered, adapted, refined or otherwise changed. So that the very effort to integrate machines into super-machines compels us to make still further technological innovations [….] It is vital to understand, moreover, that technological innovation does not merely combine and recombine machines and techniques. Important new machines do more than suggest or compel changes in other machines—they suggest novel solutions to social, philosophical, even personal problems. They alter man’s total intellectual environment—the way he thinks and looks at the world [….] We all learn from our environment, scanning it constantly—though perhaps unconsciously—for models to emulate. These models are not only other people. They are, increasingly, machines. By their presence, we are subtly conditioned to think along certain lines. It has been observed, for example, that the clock came along before the Newtonian image of the world as a great clock-like mechanism, a philosophical notion that has had the utmost impact on man’s intellectual development. Implied in this image of the cosmos as a great clock were ideas about cause and effect and about the importance of external, as against internal, stimuli, that shape the everyday behavior of all of us today. The clock also affected our conception of time so that the idea that a day is divided into twenty-four equal segments of sixty minutes each has become almost literally a part of us [….] Recently, the computer has touched off a storm of fresh ideas about man as an interacting part of larger systems, about his physiology, the way he learns, the way he remembers, the way he makes decisions. Virtually every intellectual discipline from political science to family psychology has been hit by a wave of imaginative hypotheses triggered by the invention and diffusion of the computer—and its full impact has not yet struck. And so the innovative cycle, feeding on itself, speeds up. If technology, however, is to be regarded as a great engine, a mighty accelerator, then knowledge must be regarded as its fuel. And we thus come to the crux of the accelerative process in society, for the engine is being fed a richer and richer fuel every day [….] The rate at which man has been storing up useful knowledge about himself and the universe has been spiraling upward for 10,000 years. The rate took a sharp upward leap with the invention of writing, but even so it remained painfully slow over centuries of time. The next great leap forward in knowledge—acquisition did not occur until the invention of movable type in the fifteenth century by Gutenberg and others. Prior to 1500, by the most optimistic estimates, Europe was producing books at a rate of 1000 titles per year. This means, give or take a bit, that it would take a full century to produce a library of 100,000 titles. By 1950, four and a half centuries later, the rate had accelerated so sharply that Europe was producing 120,000 titles a year. What once took a century now took only ten months. By 1960, a single decade later, the rate had made another significant jump, so that a century’s work could be completed in seven and a half months. And, by the mid-sixties, the output of books on a world scale, Europe included, approached the prodigious figure of 1000 titles per day [….] One can hardly argue that every book is a net gain for the advancement of knowledge. Nevertheless, we find that the accelerative curve in book publication does, in fact, crudely parallel the rate at which man discovered new knowledge. For example, prior to Gutenberg only 11 chemical elements were known. Antimony, the 12th, was discovered at about the time he was working on his invention. It was fully 200 years since the 11th, arsenic, had been discovered. Had the same rate of discovery continued, we would by now have added only two or three additional elements to the periodic table since Gutenberg. Instead, in the 450 years after his time, some seventy additional elements were discovered. And since 1900 we have been isolating the remaining elements not at a rate of one every two centuries, but of one every three years [….] Furthermore, there is reason to believe that the rate is still rising sharply. TODAY, FOR EXAMPLE, THE NUMBER OF SCIENTIFIC JOURNALS AND ARTICLES IS DOUBLING, like industrial production in the advanced countries, about every fifteen years, and according to biochemist Philip Siekevitz, ‘what has been learned in the last three decades about the nature of living beings dwarfs in extent of knowledge any comparable period of scientific discovery in the history of mankind.’ Today the United States government alone generates 100,000 reports each year, plus 450,000 articles, books and papers. On a worldwide basis, scientific and technical literature mounts at a rate of some 60,000,000 pages a year [….] The computer burst upon the scene around 1950. With its unprecedented power for analysis and dissemination of extremely varied kinds of data in unbelievable quantities and at mind-staggering speeds, it has become a major force behind the latest acceleration in knowledge-acquisition. Combined with other increasingly powerful analytical tools for observing the invisible universe around us, it has raised the rate of knowledge-acquisition to dumbfounding speeds. Francis Bacon told us that ‘Knowledge … is power.’ This can now be translated into contemporary terms. In our social setting, ‘Knowledge is change’—and accelerating knowledge-acquisition, fueling the great engine of technology, means accelerating change [….] Discovery. Application. Impact. Discovery. We see here a chain reaction of change, a long, sharply rising curve of acceleration in human social development. This accelerative thrust has now reached a level at which it can no longer, by any stretch of the imagination, be regarded as ‘normal.’ The normal institutions of industrial society can no longer contain it, and its impact is shaking up all our social institutions. Acceleration is one of the most important and least understood of all social forces. This, however, is only half the story. For the speed-up of change is a psychological force as well. Although it has been almost totally ignored by psychology, the rising rate of change in the world around us disturbs our inner equilibrium, altering the very way in which we experience life. Acceleration without translates into acceleration within [….] This can be illustrated, though in a highly oversimplified fashion, if we think of an individual life as a great channel through which experience flows. This flow of experience consists—or is conceived of consisting—of innumerable ‘situations.’ Acceleration of change in the surrounding society drastically alters the flow of situations through this channel [….] There is no neat definition of a situation, yet we would find it impossible to cope with experience if we did not mentally cut it up into these manageable units. Moreover, while the boundary lines between situations may be indistinct, every situation has a certain ‘wholeness’ about it, a certain integration. Every situation also has certain identifiable components. These include ‘things’—a physical setting of natural or man-made objects [….] Every situation occurs in a ‘place’—a location or arena within which the action occurs. (It is not accidental that the Latin root ‘situ’ means place.) Every social situation also has, by definition, a cast of characters—people. Situations also involve a location in the organizational network of society and a context of ideas or information. Any situation can be analyzed in terms of these five components [….] But situations also involve a separate dimension which, because it cuts across all the others, is frequently overlooked. This is duration—the span of time over which the situation occurs. Two situations alike in all other respects are not the same at all if one lasts longer than another. For time enters into the mix in a crucial way, changing the meaning or content of situations. Just as the funeral march played at too high a speed becomes a merry tinkle of sounds, so a situation that is dragged out has a distinctly different flavor or meaning than one that strikes us in staccato fashion, erupting suddenly and subsiding as quickly [….] Here, then, is the first delicate point at which the accelerative thrust in the larger society crashes up against the ordinary daily experience of the contemporary individual. For the acceleration of change, as we shall show, shortens the duration of many situations. This not only drastically alters their ‘flavor,’ but hastens their passage through the experiential channel. Compared with life in a less rapidly changing society, more situations now flow through the channel in any given interval of time—and this implies profound changes in human psychology [….] For while we tend to focus on only one situation at a time, the increased rate at which situations flow past us vastly complicates the entire structure of life, multiplying the number of roles we must play and the number of choices we are forced to make. This, in turn, accounts for the choking sense of complexity about contemporary life [….] Moreover, the speeded-up flow-through of situations demands much more work from the complex focusing mechanisms by which we shift our attention from one situation to another. There is more switching back and forth, less time for extended, peaceful attention to one problem or situation at a time. This is what lies behind the vague feeling noted earlier that ‘Things are moving faster.’ They are. Around us. And through us [….] There is, however, still another, even more powerfully significant way in which the acceleration of change in society increases the difficulty of coping with life. This stems from the fantastic intrusion of novelty, newness into our existence. Each situation is unique. But situations often resemble one another. This, in fact, is what makes it possible to learn from experience. If each situation were wholly novel, without some resemblance to previously experienced situations, our ability to cope would be hopelessly crippled [….] The acceleration of change, however, radically alters the balance between novel and familiar situations. Rising rates of change thus compel us not merely to cope with a faster flow, but with more and more situations to which previous personal experience does not apply. And the psychological implications of this simple fact, which we shall explore later in this book, are nothing short of explosive [….] ‘When things start changing outside, you are going to have a parallel change taking place inside,’ says Christopher Wright of the Institute for the Study of Science in Human Affairs. The nature of these inner changes is so profound, however, that, as the accelerative thrust picks up speed, it will test our ability to live within the parameters that have until now defined man and society. In the words of psychoanalyst Erik Erikson, ‘In our society at present, the ‘natural course of events’ is precisely that the rate of change should continue to accelerate up to the as-yet-unreached limits of human and institutional adaptability.’ [….] To survive, to avert what we have termed future shock, the individual must become infinitely more adaptable and capable than ever before. He must search out totally new ways to anchor himself, for all the old roots—religion, nation, community, family, or profession— are now shaking under the hurricane impact of the accelerative thrust. Before he can do so, however, he must understand in greater detail how the effects of acceleration penetrate his personal life, creep into his behavior and alter the quality of existence. He must, in other words, understand transience …” [255]

BY THE WAY:

COMPLICATION AND COMPLEXITY ARE NEVER SYNONYMOUS!

I do take into account both. I also practice “… Analytics …” and “…Diagnostics…” and have nascently become interested on what Cambridge University’ and Royal Society’s Sir Martin Rees, PhD. calls the “…SCIENCE OF COMPLEXITY…”

ERGO:

I have a compiled definition for it.

“ … Complexity Science is the systematic study of the nature and behavior of the material and physical universe, based on observation, experiment, and measurement, and the formulation of laws to describe these facts in general terms, with the utter purpose of instituting the perusal of the phenomena which emerge from a collection of interacting objects … Complexity expresses a condition of numerous elements in a system and numerous forms of relationships among the elements … The use of the term complex is often confused with the term complicated. In today’s systems, this is the difference between myriad connecting ‘stovepipes’ and effective ‘integrated’ solutions. This means that complex is the opposite of independent, while complicated is the opposite of simple …. While this has led some fields to come up with specific definitions of complexity, there is a more recent movement to regroup observations from different fields to study complexity in itself, whether it appears in anthills, human brains, or stock markets. One such interdisciplinary group of fields is relational order theories …”

FOR EXAMPLE # 6. PLEASE SEE THIS:

SECOND, THE MOST-IMPROVED EXCHANGE GOES LIKE THIS:

Star Trek’s First Office Spock told Captain James T. Kirk: “… Jim, the [ever-unresolved] problem with you is that you always proceed [, so firmly secured out of simpletonness of supine ignorance,] from false and obsolete assumptions [, as you believe that aging knowledge is permanent and fixed without first discomfirming your own ‘armored’ convictions against an extremely fluid and transmutating world and universe, whose an unimpeachable ‘reserve currency’ is ONLY marked by hyperbolic nonlinearlity and explosive impermanence] … And being a Vulcan [, a person whose ethos and mind-set is most accustomed to the lucre of and by gorgeous paradoxes and wicked complexity and geometrical problem-solving and exponential decision-making,] and thus different from you [keep-it-simple-stupid type of fool], I have no ego to bruise [as, by the same token and accordingly, I find neither profit, nor utility at all in identifying or determining the genders of both Angels and Archangels …”

Back to the SIMPLICITY END hardcore:

This so-called “ … esoteric … ” beyond-insurance risk management approach by DARPA, NASA, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Shell, Dr. Strangeloves (RAND Corporation’s Herman Khan) and a multitude of global corporations has been first instituted in many industries since the beginning of the 1950s.

BEFORE WE CONCLUDE, A DECISIVE NOTA BENE, NOW:

LIKEWISE AND BY WAY OF ILLUSTRATION:

As we speak about disruptions, an unknown thinker pointed out,

” …We are walking toward the edge of a cliff —blindfolded. Our ability to understand the potential for future abrupt changes in climate is limited by our lack of understanding of the processes that control them …” [224]

TODAY, WANTING TO BE A TRUE MANAGER (A PERSON INTO STATESMANSHIP WHO PRACTICES BONAPARTE’S MAN MANAGEMENT) IS A GARGANTUAN AMBITION IF ACTUAL AND SUSTAINED SUCCESS IS A CLEAR OBJECTIVE AND GOAL.

NEW MANAGERIAL REVOLUTIONARIES ARE EXTREMELY MOBILIZED INTO PURPOSEFUL CAUSES.

THEY POSSES ACCESS TO AUSPICIOUS KNOWLEDGE IN GRAVELY IGNORED AND UNDISCOVERABLE FLANKS.

SUBSEQUENTLY:

When I get hired by an institutional client, TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT deeply considers the “…human factor…” I am more interested in the human factor before than after the disruption.

AND WHAT WITH HAS TO WRESTLE WITH TO OVERCOME THE HUMAN FACTOR AND TO SEIZE VICTORY AND PRAVAIL VICTORIOUS BY ANY KNOWN AND UNKNOWN MEASURE:

Revising the Human Factor and Human Mistake, hominids are:

1.- “…Dumb…”, according to Ted Turner.

2.- “…Flawed…”, according to Dr. Henry Mintzberg.

3.- “…Unstable and unpredictable…”, according to NASA.

4.- “…Future illiterate…”, according to Alvin Toffler.

5.- “…Political animal…”, according to Aristotle.

6.- “… Man, incurable futurologist, is the only traditionalist animal …”, according to Antonio Machado. Brackets are of the author.

7.- “ … Humans Are Weird …. Humans are creatures of habit with an insatiable need to see familiarity in other people’s actions …”, according to Dr. Stephen Covey.

8.- “ … Humans are biological off-springs …”, according to Alvin Toffler.

9.- According to London Business School Prof. Gary Hamel, PhD., humans are (or are into):

9.1.- “… animal husbandry …”

9.2.- “ … social creatures …”

9.3.- “ … amazingly adaptable …”

9.4.- “ … creative and humans can choose …”

10.- “ …individuals (human animals) will make mistakes …”, according to Sir Martin Rees PhD. Parentheses are of the author.

11.- “ … human fallibility …”, according to US Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara.

12.- “… explanation-seeking animals …”, according to Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, PhD.

13.- “… We [, humans,] are dogma-prone from our mother’s wombs…”, according to Simon Foucher at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Foucher

14.- “… Human stupidity…”, according to Wikipedia.

15.- [Into] Self-deception (clearly, by so-called humans), according to Wikipedia.

16.- “…Cognitive biases…” and/or “…emotional biases…” (clearly, by so-called humans), according to Wikipedia.

17.- “…Short-term thinking…” animal, according to Professor Daniel Berleant, Ph.D.

18.- “…Animal…” who brain is “…arithmetical…” and thus never nonlinear, according to Professor Daniel Berleant, Ph.D.

19.- The world is mostly filled with “crooked” humans (animals), according to Loss Prevention Guide for Retail Businesses (National Retail Federation) by Rudolph C. Kimiecik (Author)
ISBN-13: 978–0471076360.

20.- The human animal “is unstable, creates wars, has weapons to wipe out the world twice over, and makes computer viruses, ….” according to Louis Del Monte, physicist, entrepreneur, and author of “The Artificial Intelligence Revolution.

21.- “… Timid, indecisive, narrow-minded men…” [animals], according to John Churchill, the Duke of Marlborough.

22.- “… Human beings are religious animals,…” according to Umberto Eco.

23.- “…Yes, Humans are a specie of patchwork of all our ancestors …,” according to Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary’s Dr. Svante Pääbo. He is a Swedish biologist specializing in evolutionary genetics. One of the founders of paleogenetics, he has worked extensively on the Neanderthal genome.

FOR EXAMPLE # 7. PLEASE SEE THIS:

REFLECTING ON THE EDUCATION WE IMMEDIATELY NEED! EMPEROR NAPOLEON BONAPARTE (1769 — 1821), THE GREATEST RULER IN THE TOTALITY OF THE WEST, observed:

“…Education, strictly speaking, has several objectives: one needs to learn how to speak and write correctly, which is generally called grammar and belles letters. Each lyceum has provided for this object, and there is no well-educated man who has not learned his rhetoric [….] After the need to speak and write correctly comes the ability to count and measure. The lyceums have provided this with classes in MATHEMATICS embracing arithmetical and MECHANICAL KNOWLEDGE [THAT IS TO SAY, KNOWLEDGE OF ENGINEERING] IN THEIR DIFFERENT BRANCHES [TO GAIN CRITICAL MASS THROUGH SYSTEMS THINKING WITH THE PERSPECTIVE OF APPLIED OMNISCIENCE] …[….] The elements of several other fields come next: chronology, geography, and the rudiments of history are also a part of the education of the lyceum [….] A young man who leaves the lyceum at sixteen years of age thence knows not only the mechanics of his language and the classical authors, the divisions of discourse, the different figures of eloquence, the means of employing them either to calm or arouse passions, in short, everything that one learns in a course on belles letters. He also would know the principal epochs of history, the basic geographical divisions, and how to compute and measure. He has some general idea of the most striking natural phenomena and the principles of equilibrium and movement both with regard to solids and fluids [….] Whether he desires to follow the career of the barrister, that of the sword, or ENGLISH, or letters; if he is destined to enter into the body of scholars, to be a geographer, engineer, or land surveyor — in all these cases he has received a general education necessary to become equipped to receive the remainder of instruction that his circumstances require, and it is at this moment, when he must make his choice of a profession, that the special studies present themselves …”. [113]

FOR EXAMPLE # 8. PLEASE SEE THIS:

DR. WERNHER VON BRAUN ON EDUCATION, (1912 — 1977 and Father of the American Space Program) observed:

“…The average citizen today, of course, has far more scientific information at his disposal than did those greatest of intellects of earlier times. Yet paradoxically, I think that THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A GREATER NEED FOR INCREASED UNDERSTANDING AND APPRECIATION OF SCIENCE. It has been said that, although the choice of direction for our civilization will be determined through democratic process, it is there that the problem begins. TO MAKE RATIONAL CHOICES, THE AVERAGE CITIZEN MUST UNDERSTAND THE NATURE AND ROLE OF SCIENCE AT A TIME WHEN ITS BREADTH AND COMPLEXITY ARE INCREASING ALMOST EXPONENTIALLY [….] Conversely, the scientist, at a time when he can barely keep up to date in his specialty, must not isolate himself in his parochial interest. Instead, he should see his profession as a part of the larger world, to evaluate himself and his work in relation to all forces, especially the humanities, which shape and advance society. THE NEED, THEN, IS FOR AN EDUCATIONAL PROCESS RESULTING IN MORE SCIENTIFIC LITERACY FOR THE LAYMAN, AND MORE LITERACY IN THE HUMANITIES FOR THE SCIENTISTS [….] Man in this scientific age is free only to the extent that he has a grasp on himself and his surroundings. FREEDOM — THE ABILITY TO SPEAK, THINK, ACT, AND VOTE INTELLIGENTLY — is based largely on our ability TO MAKE CHOICES growing out of our understanding of the issues involved. With each advance of science, there is an invitation to more understanding. This is the essence of the burden borne by all peoples since the dawn of humanity. There must be widespread understanding of the role of science in modern society, both as to its limits and our dependence on its basic function as a tool for our survival. This is the imperative for scientific literacy [….] How do we encourage scientific literacy? I THINK THE PROBLEM IS HOW TO INSTILL IN STUDENTS A PERMANENT DESIRE TO LEARN. All youth is endowed with curiosity from the very beginning. What can education process do, not only to keep this natural curiosity alive, but to make it a permanent part of the individual drive? … ” [114]

FOR EXAMPLE # 9. PLEASE SEE THIS:

Jiddu Krishnamurti (12 May 1895 – 17 February 1986) observed on education and learning:

“… There is no end to education. It is not that you read a book, pass an examination, and finish with education. The whole of life, FROM THE MOMENT YOU ARE BORN TO THE MOMENT YOU DIE, IS A PROCESS OF LEARNING …”

THIS ARTICLE CONTINUES:

WHITE SWAN PRAISE:

By (U.S.A.‘s) The Evacuated Tube Transport Technologies (www.Et3.com) Founder and CEO Daryl Oster:

“… Mr. Andres Agostini possesses a clarity and complexity of thought that is rarely encountered. He is without a doubt one of the most brilliant persons I have had the pleasure to interact with. He is capable of understanding, and describing the forest, the trees, the leaves, the cells, and beyond (and with equal exactitude in several languages)…”

AND:

By Washington D.C. Metro Area (Industry and Military)‘s Deputy Director, National Maritime Intelligence-Integration Office (NMIO), Most Honorable Captain Jose Nieves at http://linkd.in/1mXSBMX :

“ … Mr. Agostini has a broad intellectual background and technological understanding providing him the ability to see issues from a very different perspective than most people, thus allowing him to see alternate futures, confront challenges head on, and solve complex problems through methodical and sequential processes. Mr. Agostini’s White Swan Book addresses the very issue of alternatives to current interdisciplinary approach. The understanding of alternative futures is critical to the success of organizations. Further, Mr. Agostini’s deep understanding of alternative futures and technological progression is a most necessary skill in our nation’s military and intelligence community’s ability to predict and solve future threats and see future opportunities to exploit. Separately, Mr. Agostini’s focus on Transformative And Integrative Risk Management to prevent technological surprise was, is, and will remain relevant into the future …”

AND:

By Canadian Space Agency’s Dr. Narasimha Bhashyam DSc. (Toronto, Ontario, Canada) at http://linkd.in/1mXSBMX :

“… Agostini’s book White Swan Transformative and Integrative Risk Management presents a refreshingly path-breaking novel approach in the highly complex area of risk management which often overwhelms senior management in policy and strategy formulations … the presentation is in well integrated problem-solving interdisciplinary approach makes it a Manual For Optimal Risk Management in very challenging operational environment … THE BOOK WILL BE VERY USEFUL AND HANDY SPECIALLY FOR THOSE HANDLING PROJECTS IN SPACE AND AERONAUTICS … I will very warmly recommend this book to all Practicing Managers and Teachers in Management may like to use this Book For Course In Risk Management …”

AND:

By U.S.A.‘s Mr. Glenn Alpert at http://linkd.in/1kYIW8K :

“ …’… The future belongs not to those who possess a crystal ball, but those willing to challenge the biases and prejudices of the ‘establishment ….’ ….Not very many people want to challenge the establishment out of fear or ridicule. Unfortunately, new technologies and new philosophies are not created from older ways of thinking …. To speak about Mr. Agostini’s concept of the White Swan Treatise — These methods allow for an organization to plan for optimal futures, rather than leave events to chance. Mr. Agostini is an expert in the domain of Scientific Futuring, and can provide thought leadership and solutions for real-world problems that organizations face in this area … Mr. Andres Agostini has a breadth and depth of expertise that is rarely matched. His insight and advice to our company has been invaluable, and has led us in the right direction with our strategic management decisions with excellent results. I would highly recommend Mr. Agostini’s consulting service to other start-ups and new companies, as well as more established ones …”

AND:

By U.S.A.‘sMarc H. Gewertz at http://linkd.in/1xrFs5t

“ … Many businesses think today’s world is complicated and with technology rapidly changing, trying to figure out all the correct things to do is impossible, that it is better to just do what can be done, and adjust things when the result happens to be what is not expected. This is simply gambling where the odds for success and the liability of failure are getting worse by the day. The truth is the world is not complicated, just complex, and with complexity increasing at the same time technology is rapidly changing, the combination of the two conditions only seems complicated. The difference between complexity and complication is complexity can be logically addressed and accounted for such that proper risk management can then be applied and when the quality of the technology is assured early in the planning, analysis and design of the technical solution instead of only assuring it late in the development cycle, the integrated combination of these two scientifically validated methodologies can be used to reliably predict the expected outcomes. There is nobody better at applying the integrated combination of risk management and quality assurance than Mr. Andres Agostini or is there anybody that has more real world experience in doing so, and this includes solving some of the most wicked problems of some of the largest businesses throughout the world. If you are just gambling things work out, then I highly recommend you stop doing business dangerously and seek the assistance of Andres, the master of risk management and quality assurance, as well as reliability and continuous process improvement …”

AND:

By Canada’s Most Honorable Prof. Peter Jarmics, EdD. at http://linkd.in/1iFwd6K :

“ … Often ignored is the future of mankind as we move through our daily lives. Until you meet Andres Agostini an accomplished author, thinker and strategist. When you browse through the cosmos called his profile you are engaged in a myriad of accomplishments both in his writing and published works but also his accomplishments and impressive list of the companies he has served. He is a thinker and one that makes sense [.…] His relationships are top notch and I have had the pleasure to be offered an introduction. Which has developed into a new relationship and one of both intellectual value but of commonality [.…] If you are looking for the intellectual promise you will not be disappointed in fact you will be impressed. Hi vast intellect in multiple topics is a trait of a visionary. And I believe that Andres is just that [.…] To sum up if your future is in need of clarification and need a well established and respected individual who follows through on his intentions then this is your man. A person of integrity, a future thinker and an accomplished author. I trust you will find his engagement as satisfying as I do …”

AS WELL:

AN INDIAN CIVIL ENGINEER, VEDIC SAGE AND SANSKRIT SCHOLAR WROTE,

“ … White Swan [ http://amzn.to/1tH7Fpl ]; yes White Swan! In Sanskrit‚ we have an adage-HAMSA KSHEERA NYAYAM — meaning Swan and the Milk Example! What does this mean? It is believed that Swan accepts milk portion only from out of the mixture of Milk and Water! I am honored to compare this Vedic Analogy with Mr. Andres Agostini’s WHITE SWAN — I do know whether Andres kept this Vedic term. While titling his Great foreseeing of the Future! Needless to say that Andres is a foreseer; DRASHTARA! He illumines the present science and technology and heightens the future Metascale heights, yet he says that he does know what could be in 2045! In Sanskrit the Vedantic Sages call Andres «… a DRASHTARA …» and as such he is set out to re-channelize the R&D&I effort’s direction and pathway by applied scientists in dire straits, thus re-illuminating them in the unaccounted-for dynamic driving forces with the end for scientists to return to the right path! The universe is a legendary verse and I must admit with my limited knowledge of the past to future, the evolution is the greatest revolution in all aspects; Known becomes non existent and unknown becomes the most adored and preferred tool of the present tool for affluence in scientific and technological fast tracks! I admire Andres at every meticulous step in his narration citing and acknowledging his indebtedness to his peers! My knowledge of Science and Technology is limited to appreciation of the facts of the future! I am no match to Andres Agostini’s knowledge, but have the firm belief that Andres Agostini’s forethoughts of the future are the as true as Sun and Moon! It is a prevailed I casually came across this page and must say I am a gainer in knowledge! there is ignorance in knowledge and so too knowledge in ignorance because the more one learns; much more he/she feels more he/she must learn! People like Mr. Andres Agostini are always sought after to educate the thirsty for knowledge of the futuristic developments! Wisdom and knowledge are dual entities of the mind! Needless to say drawing from the expressive impressions of previous births to forecast the futuristics of the incoming generations called in Sanskrit as KAALAGYAN! (in Sanskrit, ‘… knowledge and awareness with farsightedness of eternal future times…’) Whatever we call genes/genetic in modern scientific terminology! As usual Mr. Andres Agostini, with his habitual farsightedness has inherent KAALAGYAN to disclose whatever the future holds for the future! Sometimes I have the premonition, having read several of Mr Andres Agostini’s publications, that he belongs to pre-Vedic period in foreseeing the futuristic happenings! He is totally dedicated in his studies: width and depth! his zeal surmounts mount Everest! I wish Mr Andres Agostini all the great results for the future he is investigating! …”

THEREBY:

TO THIS EXPRESS PURPOSE, IT MUST BE ACKNOWLEDGED:

Like Andres Agostini, Egotistical Prima Donna (SkunkWorks practitioner) is no longer a captive to history.

Like Andres Agostini, Whatever he, she can imagine, he, she can accomplish.

Like Andres Agostini, Egotistical Prima Donna (SkunkWorks practitioner) is no longer a vassal in a faceless bureaucracy, he, she is an activist, not a drone.

Like Andres Agostini, Egotistical Prima Donna (SkunkWorks practitioner) is no longer a foot soldier in the march of progress.

Like Andres Agostini, Egotistical Prima Donna (SkunkWorks practitioner) is a Revolutionary! … ”

ABSOLUTE END.

Authored By Copyright Mr. Andres Agostini

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

http://www.LINKEDIN.com/in/andresagostini

http://www.AMAZON.com/author/agostini

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http://LIFEBOAT.com/ex/bios.andres.agostini

http://ThisSUCCESS.wordpress.com

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/agostiniandres

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http://connect.FORWARDMETRICS.com/profile/1649/Andres-Agostini.html

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@AndresAgostini

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I have admired Lockheed Martin’s SkunkWorks for a long, long time.

00000000000000000000000000   SKUNK

FORTUNATELY AND TO THIS PURPOSE, A LOCKHEED MARTIN SCIENTIFIC RESEARCHER AND ENGINEER WROTE:

” … Many businesses think today’s world is complicated and with technology rapidly changing, trying to figure out all the correct things to do is impossible, that it is better to just do what can be done, and adjust things when the result happens to be what is not expected. This is simply gambling where the odds for success and the liability of failure are getting worse by the day. The truth is the world is not complicated, just complex, and with complexity increasing at the same time technology is rapidly changing, the combination of the two conditions only seems complicated. The difference between complexity and complication is complexity can be logically addressed and accounted for such that proper risk management can then be applied and when the quality of the technology is assured early in the planning, analysis and design of the technical solution instead of only assuring it late in the development cycle, the integrated combination of these two scientifically validated methodologies can be used to reliably predict the expected outcomes. There is nobody better at applying the integrated combination of risk management and quality assurance than Mr. Andres Agostini or is there anybody that has more real world experience in doing so, and this includes solving some of the most wicked problems of some of the largest businesses throughout the world. If you are just gambling things work out, then I highly recommend you stop doing business dangerously and seek the assistance of Andres, the master of risk management and quality assurance, as well as reliability and continuous process improvement …”

ABSOLUTE END.

Authored By Copyright Mr. Andres Agostini

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

http://www.LINKEDIN.com/in/andresagostini

http://www.AMAZON.com/author/agostini

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/heldenceo (Other Publications)

http://LIFEBOAT.com/ex/bios.andres.agostini

http://ThisSUCCESS.wordpress.com

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/agostiniandres

http://www.appearoo.com/aagostini

http://connect.FORWARDMETRICS.com/profile/1649/Andres-Agostini.html

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http://AGOSTINI-SOLVES.blogspot.com

@AndresAgostini

@ThisSuccess

@SciCzar

QUESTION: Give Me Egotistical Prima Donnas, Stupid?

000000000000000000 WALKER

ANSWER: Yes, give me them all. This is forceful and dramatic world in huge need of those loaded and driven with flooded stamina.

And flooded stamina is immeasurable pent-up kinetic energy that well-channelized brings about scientific discoveries and technological breakthrough and thus outright business miracles.

HENCE:

THERE IS TOO MUCH BEAUTIFICATION OF THE UNDELIVERING EMPLOYEES AND SATANIZATION OF THE FOUNDERS AND CEOS, IN A RUTHLESS WORLD, ALSO AS PER PETER DRUCKER, IN WHICH SEIZING THE OUTCOMES ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN THE PERSONALITY TYPES.

Human Race to The Future’s Author and Professor Daniel Berleant, PhD. wrote,

“ … [he] is a high-energy person, which in science is an earned canonical milestone in order to complete technological and scientific tasks in daring environment …”

TO THIS END:

Dr. Wernher von Braun’s NASA Rocket Scientist, a Physicist and a Systems Engineer and a Doctor in Science, fully backs Berleant’s assertion, indicating that the totality of the Apollo Program would have been outright impossible had not been by the proactive and indefatigable participation of the “… prima donnas involved …”

ALSO:

Under “ … THE END OF LEADERSHIP …” (ISBN-13: 978–0062069160) by Harvard University Prof. Barbara Kellerman, PhD., it is noted the ensuing:

“ … From one of the pioneers in the field of leadership studies comes a provocative reassessment of how people lead in the digital age: in The End of Leadership, Barbara Kellerman reveals a new way of thinking about leadership—and followership—in the twenty-first century. Building off of the strengths and insights of her work as a scholar and a teacher, KELLERMAN CRITICALLY REEXAMINES OUR MOST STRONGLY-HELD ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT THE ROLE OF LEADERSHIP IN DRIVING SUCCESS. REVEALING WHICH OF OUR BELIEFS HAVE BECOME DANGEROUSLY OUT-OF-DATE THANKS TO ADVANCES IN SOCIAL MEDIA CULTURE, SHE ALSO CALLS INTO QUESTION THE VALUE OF THE SO-CALLED [DUMBING DOWN] ‘LEADERSHIP INDUSTRY’ ITSELF. Asking whether leadership can truly be taught, KELLERMAN FORCES US TO THINK CRITICALLY AND EXPANSIVELY ABOUT HOW TO THRIVE AS LEADERS IN A GLOBAL INFORMATION AGE …”

0000000000000 END OF LEADERSHIP

THEREBY:

00000000000000000000000000   SKUNK

TO THE EXPRESS PURPOSE, IT MUST BE ACKNOWLEDGED:

“ … Egotistical Prima Donna (SkunkWorks practitioner) is no longer a captive to history.

Whatever he, she can imagine, he, she can accomplish.

Egotistical Prima Donna (SkunkWorks practitioner) is no longer a vassal in a faceless bureaucracy, he, she is an activist, not a drone.

Egotistical Prima Donna (SkunkWorks practitioner) is no longer a foot soldier in the march of progress.

Egotistical Prima Donna (SkunkWorks practitioner) is a Revolutionary! … ”

0000000 FEISNTEIN

ABSOLUTE END.

Authored By Copyright Mr. Andres Agostini

000000000000000   OVERMAN  400

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

http://www.LINKEDIN.com/in/andresagostini

http://www.AMAZON.com/author/agostini

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/heldenceo (Other Publications)

http://LIFEBOAT.com/ex/bios.andres.agostini

http://ThisSUCCESS.wordpress.com

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/agostiniandres

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http://connect.FORWARDMETRICS.com/profile/1649/Andres-Agostini.html

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/amazonauthor

http://FUTURE-OBSERVATORY.blogspot.com

http://ANDRES-AGOSTINI-on.blogspot.com

http://AGOSTINI-SOLVES.blogspot.com

@AndresAgostini

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@SciCzar

Quoted: “Tony Williams, the founder of the British-based legal consulting firm, said that law firms will see nearly all their process work handled by artificial intelligence robots. The robotic undertaking will revolutionize the industry, “completely upending the traditional associate leverage model.” And: “The report predicts that the artificial intelligence technology will replace all the work involving processing information, along with a wide variety of overturned policies.”

Read the article here > https://hacked.com/legal-consulting-firm-believes-artificial-intelligence-replace-lawyers-2030/

Which Ego? And, ergo, P.Q.

circles 400 dpi

There is no “…Ego…”, but SELF-INTEREST WITH SELF ESTEEM, fueled only by SELF OWN WILL POWER and hence directed by OWN ETHOS and OWN COGNITION and OWN SENSING.

BY THE WAY:

P.Q. equates to Prudential Quotient or, better yet, to PRUDENTIAL INTELLIGENCE (P.Q.).

With Prudential Intelligence Plus Interculturalness, You Have Serenity and Productivity and, therefore, Five-Star Corporate Generals (High-Brass CEOs) are subsequently enable to structurally cope with the ‘Global Marketplace”s business-like theater of military operations.

ABSOLUTE END.

Authored By Copyright Mr. Andres Agostini

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

http://www.LINKEDIN.com/in/andresagostini

http://www.AMAZON.com/author/agostini

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/heldenceo (Other Publications)

http://LIFEBOAT.com/ex/bios.andres.agostini

http://ThisSUCCESS.wordpress.com

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/agostiniandres

http://www.appearoo.com/aagostini

http://connect.FORWARDMETRICS.com/profile/1649/Andres-Agostini.html

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/amazonauthor

http://FUTURE-OBSERVATORY.blogspot.com

http://ANDRES-AGOSTINI-on.blogspot.com

http://AGOSTINI-SOLVES.blogspot.com

@AndresAgostini

@ThisSuccess

@SciCzar

Quoted: “If you understand the core innovations around the blockchain idea, you’ll realize that the technology concept behind it is similar to that of a database, except that the way you interact with that database is very different.

The blockchain concept represents a paradigm shift in how software engineers will write software applications in the future, and it is one of the key concepts behind the Bitcoin revolution that need to be well understood. In this post, I’d like to explain 5 of these concepts, and how they interrelate to one another in the context of this new computing paradigm that is unravelling in front of us. They are: the blockchain, decentralized consensus, trusted computing, smart contracts and proof of work / stake. This computing paradigm is important, because it is a catalyst for the creation of decentralized applications, a next-step evolution from distributed computing architectural constructs.

Screen Shot 2014-12-23 at 10.30.59 PM

Read the article here > http://startupmanagement.org/2014/12/27/the-blockchain-is-the-new-database-get-ready-to-rewrite-everything/

MR. ANDRES AGOSTINI’S ARTICLES ON LINKEDIN

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0 wall FOR LBF  VERY TOP

LINKEDIN: Homer Simpson on NASA and Bart Simpson on Book Of Five Rings and the Noda Secret https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/homer-simpson-nasa-bart-book-five-rings-amazon-com-author-agostini-1

LINKEDIN: SELLING! Getting Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Fortune-500s to Uninterruptedly Buy From You! https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/selling-mr-andres-agostini-amazon-com-author-agostini-3?trk=prof-post

LINKEDIN: CORRECTLY FORESEEING? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141203020027-34427457-correctly-foreseeing?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: A Chat with StarTrek Captain James T. Kirk, the A.I. Incumbent? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141202005900-34427457-a-chat-with-startrek-captain-james-t-kirk-the-a-i-incumbent?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: How Come Artificial Intelligence is Burning Your Hands? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141126011822-34427457-my-date-questions-answered-by-a-female-robot?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: The Swiss Prescription! https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141127021523-34427457-the-swiss-prescription?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: Getting Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Fortune-500s to Uninterruptedly Buy From You! Amazon, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway Corporation, Mitsubishi Motors, Honda, Daimler-Chrysler’s Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Royal Dutch Shell Oil Company, Google, Xerox, Exxon-Mobil, Boeing, Amazon, Procter & Gamble, NASA and DARPA, Lockheed Martin, RAND Corporation and HUDSON Institute, Northrop Grumman Corporation, GEICO, Microsoft, etc. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141119210301-34427457-getting-apple-amazon-microsoft-to-buy-from-you?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: Marilyn Monroe in London and Continuous Performance Improvement https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141018220154-34427457-the-beautiful-london-secretary-and-continuous-performance-improvement?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: Dr. Strangeloves, the Military-Industrial Complex, Royal Dutch Shell, Skunkworks, and Omniscient: Futuring, Strategizing and Advanced Planning and Execution via Scenario-Planning Methodology by Top Global Corporations and The Technically-Minded Practitioners and Incumbents! https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141018015730-34427457-dr-strangeloves-the-military-industrial-complex-royal-dutch-shell-skunkworks-and?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: The Advice Bill Gates Gave Us 15 Years Ago… And Made Him a Superbillionaire in the Process! https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20140927125400-34427457-the-advice-bill-gates-gave-us-15-years-ago-and-made-him-a-superbillionaire-in-the-process?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: The 24 Commandments of Resiliency! https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20140906214412-34427457-the-22-commandments-of-resiliency?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: Is Kaizen a Panacea, Six Sigma a Pandora and Black Swan a Sputnik? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/kaizen-panacea-six-sigma-pandora-black-swan-sputnik?trk=prof-post

Homer Simpson on NASA and Bart Simpson on Book Of Five Rings and the Noda Secret!THE HANSDS OF THE SWAN IN COREL DRAW

Homer: Son, it has been said that Kaizen is “good change.”

Bart: Dad, good change, Do you mean the throttle?

Homer: Son, What do you mean by throttle?

Bart: Dad, the gas pedal gone lunatic!

Homer: Son, lunatic how?

Bart: Dad, the gas pedal set into out-of-controlness in order to harm the automobile and the driver and passengers in said automobile.

Homer: Son, that is impossible as Kaizen through its doppelgänger (a) Toyota Production System (TPS) and (b) “…Thinking People System…” were in place to preclude what you suggest.

Bart: Dad, I don’t suggest anything as the victims and casualties are in the news and in court and cementeries.

Homer: Son, Really? I didn’t know that. Why do you think this happened?

Bart: Dad, the gas pedal is a subsystem to which huge technical complexity was added, layer after layer, device after device, until the technical complexity superseded the totality of knowledge level of Toyota, worldwide.

Homer: Son, Oh my big “G.” So, Drew says that?

Bart: Dad, yes he does!

Homer: Son, And beyond Drew and Andy who else underpins that?

Bart: Dad, Well, the flaw was so complex that it actually was lucidly identified and elucidated by NASA and never by JAXA.

Homer: Son, JAXA? Is that the detergent ambiword played around by the Illuminati?

Bart: Dad, no, no, no! JAXA is not a Protecter & Gamble detergent but Japan’s NASA.

Homer: Son, and what happened to the instituted “good change” pertaining to the murdering gas pedal?

Bart: Dad, you see, regardless of how tough your Quality Assurance methodology, neither Kaizen nor TPS is instrumented and operationalized with the Systems Approach and the non-theological applied Omniscience perspective, thus bringing about White Swan “Transformative and Integrative” Best Practices!

Homer: Son, Are suggesting that this carmaker is myopic when manufacturing?

Bart: Dad, To a great extent, that carmaker does beautifully, but as the 360-degree flow of processes and contents are not thoroughly pursuited by them, ignorantly and unfailingly they give birth to Black Swans, Blacks Swans that show up frequently and out the blue.

Homer: Son, What does Australian black rara avis have to do with this?

Bart: Dad, You got it all wrong again. But Black Swan I mean to say the incessant fostering of the frequent impact of the dramatic highly improbable (ISBN: 978-0812973815 AND AT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory )

Homer: Son, Is there a Structural Counterpoint to this stupid Black Swan stuff and Suboptimal Kaizen and TPS? Please, son, tell me if there is a fundamental solution to such simpletonness?

Bart: Dad, Yes there is, but I will not tell you the Secret, by means of which Toyota Production Director, San Noda, kindly baptized Andy with a newer name. THE COUNTERPOINT-plus, so to speak, is: “… The White Swan’s Beyond Eureka and Sputnik Moments: How To Fundamentally Cope With Corporate Litmus Tests and With The Impact of the Dramatic Highly Improbable And Succeed and Prevail Through Transformative and Integrative Risk Management! …” ( ASIN: B00KMY0DLK AND at http://amzn.to/1zi1RDY )

Homer: Son, where did the Noda Secret took place and why?

Bart: Dad, at a long meeting of Andy with the chairman, CEO, CFO and Director of Production of Toyota, through which Andy made a lengthy and most-detailed explanation about technical shortcomings he found both in Kaizen and TPS.

Homer: Son, Oh My God? And the Nippon Honor got bruised in there?

Bart: Dad, Yes, the Director of Production wanted to assassin Andy but the chairman and the CEO remained calmed and tranquil.

Homer: Son, What was the final outcome of said business dealing?

Bart: Dad, well, with the bruised egos, they contracted Andy so that he could institute Andy’s own Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, never implementing Kaizen or TPS.

Homer: Son, Don’t they do also Lean and Mean (ISBN: 978–1572302525), Lean Manufacturing, Agile, Extreme Project Management, Six Sigma and the like?

Bart: Dad, yes, they do but they fail frequently anyway!

Homer: Son, Why? Why? Why?

Bart: Dad, to this end and question, Andy relentlessly argues that they DO NOT observe a Womb-to-Tomb Management Prescription by His Excellency George W. Rutler, S.T.D. (Doctor of Sacred Theology).

Homer: Son, Can you simplify into a couple of words the aforementioned Management Prescription by said Doctor of Sacred Theology?

Bart: Dad, yes, I can readily activate that while George W. Rutler, S.T.D. observes verbatim, “… we [and they and everyone else in the Earth] need a great Dose of Reality [most urgently]…”

Homer: Son, The Creator has spoken as there are, in all truth, so many Ivy-League and Oxbridge postdoctorals that are both myopic and narrow minded in a world in which must-do-for-ever updatedness is abjectly rejected.

Bart: Dad, touché!

Homer: Son, Do Toyota and other global corporations of gran repute from the Far East apply, say and for instance, embrace Servant Leadership (ISBN: 978–0761513698) in order to further underpin their collective efforts towards Quality Assurance and Continuous Process Improvement?

Bart: Dad, yes, they keep the WHOLE FASHIONABLE FAD about Leadership immeasurably overestimated when remarkable Harvard University Leadership Professor Prof. Barbara Kellerman, PhD., among zillion others, has indicated that “…The End of Leadership…” (ISBN: 978–0062069160) has terrifyingly and UNIVERSALLY failed because of rampant lack of ETHICS and absence of LUCRATIVE BUSINESS OUTCOMES. How can you Kaizen something, that is: “…change for the better…”, if you daily violate ethics and your end results are ineffectual, ludicrous, madly-in-love with bankruptcy and decay?

Homer: Son, And the (a) “5S” ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5S_%28methodology%29 ) and (b) the “5 Whys” ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_Whys ) ?

Bart: Dad, with the great advent of exponential technologies ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_Technology ) since the Fall of the Iron Wall and the lost of “…corporate decorum,…” they simply DO NOT SUFFICE and seem to be necessary a must-do re-birth, overhaul and re-engineering APPROACH to structurally fix those. All of the preceding while in the face of entire Earth flows and overflows a FORCEFUL ZEITGEIST characterized by elites into propelling destroyed à-la-ganters “…ethics…” and imposing their anti-values, in order to make their status quo fatter and more obese, not Lean!

Homer: Son, but in Fukushima, managers there did their very best, didn’t they?

Bart: Dad, Not, they didn’t! That were un-coped-with black swans.

Homer: Son, Why not?

Bart: Dad, Andy argues that organizations from Fukushima part of the world ARE RISK ADVERSE AND ARE UTTERLY AGAINST BEST-IN CLASS WESTERN MODALITIES (chiefly those practices from the West’s western-most region in the Northern Hemisphere) of Risk Management. Andy assures that he has strongly observe this too frequently, not only while working with Mitsubishi Motors and Toyota Motors, but also closely working with the INSURANCE COMPANY called Tokyo Marine Group ( http://www.tokiomarinehd.com/en/group/index.html ).

Homer: Son, And what’s wrong with hating risks before and after they create devastations?

Bart: Dad, those sages from the Far East are nice, but they only concentrate on the “…Line of Production…”, “…Supply Chain…”, “ Workshop Benches,” “…Other Primary, Secondary and tertiary Functions of the Core Business,…” and the inner-most environment of the Factory, the Head-Office or the Throughputting Façades, EXPONENTIALLY IGNORING AND HENCE LACKING TO MANAGE MANY OTHER WASTES, DEFECTS, RISKS, THREATS, BLACK SWANS, BLACK-BOX EVENTS, DOWNSIDE FUTURES, SPUTNIKS, KNOWN UNKNOWNS, UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS, STEMMING FROM THE OUTER-MOST ENVIRONMENT.

Homer: Son, They loves their façades as they feel untouchable for the external environment and the outter-most external environment?

Bart: Dad, touché!

Homer: Son, So you mean to say that the seamless integration of Continuous Process Improvements, Kaizen, Toyota Production System, Agile, Lean, Lean Production, Six Sigma, Extreme Project Management, Servant Leadership, so fort is NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTERMEASSURE MANY OTHER WASTES, DEFECTS, RISKS, THREATS, BLACK SWANS, BLACK-BOX EVENTS, DOWNSIDE FUTURES, SPUTNIKS, KNOWN UNKNOWNS, UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS, STEMMING FROM THE OUTER-MOST ENVIRONMENT?

Bart: Dad, Andy, under his White Swan book and other publications, has been indefatigable to say that Flawness must be a hugely studied science and that issues must be dealed with preemptively before they happen through the systems approach and with the applied omniscience perspective in due place, IN ORDER TO AVOID, and by way of just one meager example, “… AUTO RECALLS SURPASS 60 MILLION IN 2014, NEARLY TWICE THE PREVIOUS U.S. RECORD …” ( http://bit.ly/1Clgyap ). ANDY INSISTS AND INSISTS ON THAT POTENTIAL DISRUPTION IS A POTENTIAL DISRUPTION FROM WHEREVER IT COMES AND THAT THOSE CAN BE FUNDAMENTALLY SOLVED AND PROFITED FROM, EARLY, AS PER HIS WORDS, NUMBERS, FACTS, AND STATS.

Homer: Son, Under his Disruption Potential, Does Andy’s White Swan Idea include, say, the disasters both by Fukushima and Sony Corporation to cite just two instances?

Bart: Dad, A quick answer is an IRONCLAD YES. THE LONGER ANSWER INCLUDES THE FOLLWING CASES WHOSE WHITE SWAN TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT WAS NEVER EVER INSTITUTED:

EXTREMELY SHORT LISTS BY BART ENSUES NOW:

(#1 of #14)_ Takata air bags. (http://read.bi/1GLoul9).

(#2 of #14)_ Mazda Recalls 100,000 Cars for Defect in Tire Pressure Sensor.

(#3 of #14)_ Toyota Gas Pedal

(#4 of #14)_ General Motors Co. ignition switches

(#5 of #14)_ GM alone has recalled nearly 27 million cars and trucks in the U.S. this year, a record for any single automaker. Defective GM ignition switches in small cars have been linked to at least 42 deaths and 58 injuries.

(#6 of #14)_ Honda Motor Co., the third-largest Japanese automaker, has recalled 5.4 million vehicles to replace Takata air bags.

(#7 of #14)_ Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV said Dec. 19 that it would accede to a NHTSA request and expand an existing air-bag recall. That will add 2.89 million vehicles to the recall total for the U.S. when reflected in the government database.

(#8 of #14)_ With the focus on more and quicker recalls, 2014 will probably signify a period of elevated safety fixes, Steinkamp said. The average number of recalled vehicles per year from the 2004 through last year was 16.1 million, according to NHTSA data. “…It’s a landmark year; it’s the start of a new era,…” said by Neil Steinkamp, a managing director at Stout Risius Ross who studies warranty and recall issues.

(#9 of #14)_ Virgin Galactic Crash (http://on.wsj.com/1sO9FWK)

(#10 of #14)_ Nasa’s Antares rocket explosion (http://ti.me/1tfXndg)

(#11 of #14)_ Even Airliners Weaponized Into Skyscrapers and the Pentagon (http://bit.ly/JsvuKR)

(#12 of #14)_ Sony “Rogue State”-sponsored Cyberhack (http://nyti.ms/1wPlRLX)

(#13 of #13)_ Boston Marathon bombings ( http://bit.ly/1m8zZqx )

(#14 of #14)_ Suzuki Motor to recall 453,000 mini vehicles in Japan (http://bit.ly/1Cr0Zev)

THE LONG LIST IS WITHIN THE WHITE SWAN BOOK AT: http://amzn.to/1AvY2tK

EXTREMELY SHORT LISTS BY BART ENDS NOW.

Homer: Son, Why are so many tragedies there?

Bart: Dad, Mostly because DoD, NASA, Virgin Galactic, Sony, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Honda, GM, Takata, Fiat-Chrysler think that your corporate theaters of operations can be TOTALLY CLEAR AND FREE OF DISRUPTION POTENTIAL BY ONLY AND ONLY APPLYING CONTINOUS PROCESS IMPROVEMT, QUALITY ASSURANCE, KAIZEN, TOYOTA PRODUCTION SYSTEM, PROCESS REENGINEER, etc. In each corporate theater of operations within the global marketplace, every corporation is waging war to be world’s marketplace #1, with the utter purpose not to incurr in Chapter Seven ( http://bit.ly/1AvSjnM ), thus outright bankruptcy.

Homer: Son, Why does Apple manufacture IPhones in Japan with a U.S. name and domicile?

Bart: Dad, Because, after all and with all and all, Japanese and German manufacturing is the world’s least worst, except for the quality assurance used in manufacturing U.S., French and Israeli weapons? Weapons is a fancy word for “…tools to carry on with applied politics through other means …!…”

Homer: Son, How do you make the case against the defects and shortcomings in Japanese approaches not only to manufacture, but also to manage the corporate theater of operations from a Womb-to-Tomb stance?

Bart: Dad, I greatly value Japanese execs and sages but they focus only on throughputting(*) the Known Inputs Into Desirable Outputs inside their premises, without considering the Non-Existential and Existential Risk of the External Environment (outside their industrial façade) at large as we do in the White Swan’s Tranformative and Integrative Risk Management Services.

(*) Throughputting is a Latin word in its ING-form stemming from Latin language, whose meaning is exactly this: Modus Operandi (MO). In all order and in all correction, to assert to modus-opendai X is exactly identical to throughput X.

Yes, they Kaizen within and beyond and from the Assembly Line to HHRR and many other administrative facilities and operations. However, in Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, we consider and implement, as a major sub-chapter, every possible and most updated tool(s) by Quality Assurance and Continuous Improvement, most of the times to a “Shock and Awe” practical level for the sake of corporate lucre in sustainability.

Briefly, this is what I can add to this point.

Homer: Son, Are you sure you are not with the Discrete and Secretive Scotch Rite?

Bart: Not, thank you, Dad.

Homer: Son, What Do Suzuki, General Electric, and Toyota have in Common?

Bart: Dad, As per the downsides, Toyota is better known by the “…gas pedal…” error, constructed by “…throwing and throwing…” layers and layers of Knowledge Complexity (that is: heavy and undue involvement with the unknown Science of Complexity) to a single sub-subsystem, the gas pedal. Many American and Canadian lives were lost in the process.

The scientific forensics party, to become amenable to the U.S. Congress, was performed and solved by NASA. Toyota could have resorted, but to the despair of U.S. congressmen, to Japan’s NASA, JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency).

In accordance to its disadvantages, the massive disruption by The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, that was jointly built and jointly managed by General Electric, Boise, and Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO).

Now, we have the recall by Suzuki. Suzuki Motor Corp, as per Reuters, on Thursday (September 19, 2014) issued a recall of 453,225 minivehicles in Japan to fix a defect in the blower fan motor of the air-conditioning unit that has resulted in three fires so far.

I have vast experience with Kaizen and Toyota Production System even before ANdy became extremely knowledgeable with two of his most salient clients, Toyota Motors and Mitsubishi Motors.

ONE. If you add complexity to your subsystems without fully knowing the upsides and downsides, the above will happen, unless to an important degree.

SECOND. These disruptions also happen when there is either or both Low Morale and Low Moral with Flawed Ethics. When in the corporate theater of operations there is SOLEMNITY, you immediately get a nice spinoff: High Morale, Optimal Morality, and Fundamental Ethics.

THIRD. Kaizen, Toyota Production System (TPS), and Lean Six Sigma, in my personal, opinion need to incorporate other problem-solving methodologies, quite amenable to the Fortune-100 Victors of the West.

When Andy carefully and in a most detailed and sequential fashion proved to Toyota’s Chairman, CEO and Production Director (Mr. Noda) TPS to be limited and constrained and blinded to Manage Risks, both from within the Assembly Line and from outside the Factory Facade, they got furious and Mr. Noda start crying like a little child.

However, the Patrician Patriarch at the helm of the Chair stayed extremely calmed and relaxed and issued a directive to contract Andy and do his (a) Beyond-Kaizen Method, and (b) Beyond TPS Method, right, as every mensurable outcomes (numerical goals and narrative objectives) were not achieved, but superseded in the audited actuality.

Homer: Son, you really love work harder than a workaholic, do you not?

Bart: Dad, you are 10% right. In fact, I just carry on with my pass times. However, seen from the outside enjoying my solving-wicked-problem pass times, clients and colleagues say that I look more, along the lines of an indefatigable Extraterrestrial Tesla Device ( http://bit.ly/1iLbOOo ).

Homer: Son, What does Sony (Global) Corporation operating in the totally of the Globe knows about Crisis Management ( http://bit.ly/1JFFlYQ ) ?

Bart: Dad, Exactly NOTHING! And Sony does know know, either, that as it operates multinationally, that it is entrenched with realpolitik world’s geopolitics and world history and world geography and world culture and ubiquitous world connectivity! SONY — LIKE TOYOTA, MITSUBISHI, SUZUKI, MAZDA, HONDA AND, AMONG MANY OTHERS, TOKYO MARINE (Insurance) — KNOWS ZERO ABOUT EXTREMELY-HOLISTIC BEYOND INSURANCE RISK MANAGEMENT, EXACTLY AS PER THE DICTUMS OF WHITE SWAN “…TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT…”

Homer: Son, So, I deduct from your saying that Nippons believe, as a close pride society, that their management style is untouchable and infinitely better than any SERIOUS MANAGEMENT (PROBLEM-SOLVING) IN THE WEST? Please also tell me a bit about the famous Noda Story.

Bart: Dad, EXACTLY. They proudly think of themselves best-in-class worldwide and in some extents and areas, yes, in fact, they are. ABOUT THE FACTUAL NODA STORY? This is a real-life story extremely summarized. I made a granularity-of-detail executive presentation to Toyota’s Board of Directors, including Mr. Noda (the Production Director). With the largest and smallest minuteness, step by step, sub-step by sub-step, I outright proved to Toyota Chairman, CEO, Production Director, CFO and others in the Board that using Kaizen to Manage Risks Holistically as per the Western state-of-the-art understanding was beyond ineffectual and inconsequential.

Of course and due to extreme Japanese nationalism and single mindedness, Mr. Noda assumed that I was too stupid to know something substantive about Kaizen and Toyota Production System and the American Professors who taught them their “stuff” through long consultative years.

When I first knocked the Toyota front-office door, I had spent twenty (20) years studying every advancement in business, management, and industry, clearly acknowledging every upside and every downside. In fact I was first introduced to a full-scope indoctrination in Japanese methodologies (ISBN: 978–0075543329 and ISBN: 978–0915299140) by Royal Dutch Shell.

Through Shell I was also greatly trained into Mr. William E. Conway’s “… Right Way to Manage …” (ISBN: 978–0963146458). Via them we observe quality assurance by the U.S. Navy, Los Alamos Lab, Hitachi. Thenceforth, a doctor in science taught me about what Quality, Reliability, Safety and Security meant for NASA. In a congruent and coherent and cohesive way, you will find those and other proprietary items within the White Swan “Transformative and Integrative Risk Management.”

In Shell, like as it is Mr. Jiddu Krishnamurti, there are no folly regionalism but frinctionless globalization and globalization smartification, thus embracing any useful approach, regardless of geography, story, race, ethnicity or else, AS LONG AS IT FURTHER UNDERPINS THE GLOBAL STRATEGIC BOTTOM-LINE, PERIOD!

I was heavily researching not just Toyota’s advancements and others by the Corporate Miracle of Japan of the 1980s, but absolutely everything regarding the countermeassuring of any form (including its many synonyms) of, direct or indirect, disruptions, both in the West and the Far East.

As Japan was topnotch and nobody in the West was doing something meritorious (as per Noda’s schema), he found it stupid and time-wasting and not lucrative to even consider the methodologies, even those by NASA and way beyond that, that I was ruthlessly researching, nation by nation, industry by industry. Ergo, as my amazing father and Napoleon Bonaparte stated, “ … I only have one counsel or you — be a master …” to the strategic surprise (Sputnik Moment) of Toyota, Noda, and Mitsubishi Motors.

Mr. Noda was extremely infuriated with me but, despite him, the Chairman hired me and carried on with emotional evenness, that of a Wise and Sage Patriarch. Mr. Noda gave me a positive nickname that I will not release at this or other time.

Other considerations pertaining to Kaizen and its evolution way beyond that, I will be commenting about in due time.

Homer: Son, Who is Taiichi?

Bart: Dad, Do you mean Mr. Taiichi Ohno?

Homer: Son, yes, tell me about him!

Bart: Dad, I will give you an info capsule. Taiichi Ohno (1912 – 1990) was a Japanese businessman and is considered to be the father of the Toyota Production System, which became Lean Manufacturing in the U.S. In the book The Perfect Engine (ISBN: 978–0743203814), it is commented the ensuing excerpt:

“ … When Taiichi Ohno visited the Ford Motor plant at River Rouge in the early fifties, he was truly humbled. Ford Motor’s quality and productivity were several times better than Toyota’s. The operational lead time, or total elapsed time for converting raw materials into a Model T, was only three days. Mr. Ohno worked diligently over the next twenty years to develop a version of Ford’s miracle that came to be known as the Toyota Production System …”

Homer: Son, being from the Far East and besides Lean Manufacturing, Do they observe and copy Sun Tzu’s Art of War?

Bart: Dad, Not, they don’t. Remember they are a tough small island that besieged and ruled in China, a huge country, that is to say: China, Germany’s world’s client number 1. IN FACT, THEY OBSERVE AGILE AND LEAN MANUFACTURING AND THEIR OWN 1645’S BOOK OF FIVE RINGS ( HTTP://BIT.LY/1ZAI0PG), BY MEANS OF WHICH IT IS FORCEFULLY MANDATED TO «INVESTIGATE AFFAIRS THOROUGHLY THROUGH» PRACTICE RATHER THAN TRYING TO LEARN THEM BY MERELY READING.

Homer: Bart, that sound very tough, isn’t it?

Bart: Dad, in fact, it is harshly tough without a fail.

Homer: Bart, do they watch the waves or the currents underneath?

Bart: Dad, they watch the waves, and both the currents underneath and the undercurrents closer to the sea bed!

Homer: Bart, Can you please explain the differences between Currents and Undercurrents?

Bart: Dad, I was reading The Economist and a notion came to my mind.

We have all have heard the Chinese adage,

“… Don’t look at the waves but the currents underneath …”

Currents are “ … Dynamic Driving Forces …” that eject sequences of so-called “…Trends…” While Undercurrents are Counter-“ … Dynamic Driving Forces …” that eject sequences of so-called “…Counter-Trends…”

As per the onset and in-progress Disruptional Singularity (coined by the signatory at http://amzn.to/1wfx4At), and using the terms “current” and “undercurrent” as linguistic wilds-cards, we have several CONCURRENT Global Currents and Worldly Undercurrents going on, around this Globe.

In extremely-holistic (beyond-insurance) risk management, we always know that small risks and medium-size risks and even large risks end up compounding together into devastation if we stay like innocent bystanders.

And as they compound, they make the Diruptional Singularity a reality.

Considering Media and Political Agendas, Which one is the “Current,” Ebola or ISIS?

Considering Media and Political Agendas, Which one is the “Undercurrent,” ISIS or Ukraine?

And there are also Forefronts and Foregrounds, such as the global massive sovereign indebtedness, nation-state-promoted cyberattacks, or reserve currencies waged into wars by the Central Bankers in the most important world economies.

Proper jobs and correct employment will never come back as industrial investors prefer to invest on bots and superautomation than humans. For the sake of their shares values and dividends, they will make frequent pacts with Satan with the utter purpose to be superricher yet. You see, they need to take with their wife about 25 millions to collaborate with the fight against Ebola to underpin their own P.R. agenda.

We have our concentration GLUED to the Waves, and not the Currents, Undercurrents, Counter-Currents, and Counter-Undercurrents underneath!

Currents are Dynamic Driving Forces that reshape this as-of-now Present (Continuum) and near-term Future.

Undercurrents are Counter-” Dynamic Driving Forces” that reshape this as-of-now Present (Continuum) and near-term future.

And so on and on. Every Force has a Counter-Force.

In order not to get your mind brainwashed, socially-engineered, or brain-controlled, you are going to have to REFLECT HARD AND SUBTLE and UNCONDITIONALLY AUDIT all those currents and counter-current underneath.

Homer: Bart, are you sure you are not the ruler mastermind of the Priory of Zion (http://bit.ly/16Hlppe)? THEN, TO KAIZEN OR NOT TO KAIZEN, TO FUKUSHIMA OR NOT TO FUKUSHIMA?

Bart: Dad, Again and again and again.

SHAKESPEARE: TO KAIZEN OR NOT TO KAIZEN, TO FUKUSHIMA OR NOT TO FUKUSHIMA?

I have extensively worked with Toyota and Mitsubishi Motors, as I have with many Western Corporation of a global scale, including Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon-Mobile. I also develop my own proprietary problem-solving methodology to manage every risks, in advance and otherwise, by the Internal Environment, even duly assuring Quality Control and Continuous Improvements along with womb-to-tomb Corporate Strategy, and External Environment, called Transformative and Integrative Risk Management.

The accomplished Japanese eliminating operational wastes and flaws in the products and manufacturing processes and further eternally improving those are the Monarchy in the Galaxy. But as they apply heavy Quality Assurance to Nuclear Plants like Fukushima, they never preemptively think of the flaws and threats stemming from the external environment, sometimes even from the external environment outside of the facade of the plant, factory or whatever installation.

It is like the Japanese are always fixated on the Henry Ford’s Assembly Line, ignoring other company’s crucial assets, both tangible and intangible.

Under Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, every form of advanced Quality Assurance and Continuous Improvement is as CRUCIAL as any internal or external threat, regardless whether they stem from the manufacturing process or NOT, including so-called Black-Swan events.

Japanese managers and engineers are hugely remarkable and respected people. However, I need to operate Womb-to-Tomb, early on.

To better understand the idea put forward, you need to read the White Swan.

Homer: Bart, Should I understand that Transformative and Integrative Risk Management has well established operational sub-chapters for both Continuous Improvement and Quality Assurance?

Bart: Dad, yes, you are accurate. But the scale, magnitude, and granularity of details incessantly considered by Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is mind-boggling for top Doctors in Rocket Science and yourself!

Homer: Bart, Really? Why is that? Can you elaborate about a hugely ignored ‘scientific knowledge’-laden, not out-foolish Thomas Paine’s so-called “common sense” that is forgotten and ignored by the corporate theaters of operation within the Top-10 Fortune 500?

Bart: Dad, well, the corporate theaters of operation within the Top-10 Fortune 500 constantly and continuously ignored some extremely useful and for-lucre methods by the Los Alamos National Laboratory ( http://www.lanl.gov/ ) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ( https://www.llnl.gov/ ).

I will give you a concrete example. The savant over Procter & Gamble asked Los Alamos National Laboratory for a Process Engineering (Quality Assurance Method), sponsored by the gray matter and genes and synapses of Los Alamos National Laboratory scientists, but always dovetailed and customized to the needs, requirements and specifications of Procter & Gamble and its rampantly victorious corporate theater of operations.

Homer: Bart, Hugely Interesting and What Else? Is that your best?

Bart: Dad, no, no, that is not my best as I have spoken, pertaining to all-encompassing quality assurance approaches, of other as high standards and even higher as those available and observed by White Swan “Transformative and integrative Risk Management,” such as those of the world-class Military Spheres of Influence.

TO THIS END, I COULD ELLABORATE A LITTLE.

QUALITY ASSURANCE IN MILITARY AERONAUTIC INDUSTRIES! THIS IS A WORLDWIDE REAL-LIFE PRIORITIZED (TOP-DOWN) BRIEF LIST OF MILITARY ACHIEVEMENTS CONCERNING QUALITY ASSURANCE. ENSUING:

THE BEST Quality Assurance In Military Aeronautic Equipment Is And By American Manufacturer(S).

THE SECOND Best Quality Assurance In Military Aeronautic Equipment Is And By European Manufacturer(S).

THE THIRD Best Quality Assurance In Military Aeronautic Equipment Is And By Israeli Manufacturer(S).

THE FOURTH Best Quality Assurance In Military Aeronautic Equipment Is And By Russian Manufacturer(S).

THE FIFTH Best Quality Assurance In Military Aeronautic Equipment Is And By Chinese Manufacturer(S).

THE SIXTH Best Quality Assurance In Military Aeronautic Equipment Is And By Iranian Manufacturer(S).

NB_1: The writeup is based on evidence. Lack of information cannot allow the inclusion of Japan and India and their immeasurable achievements.

NB_2: However: Remember That Dedicated People Learn Fast And Change (UPGRADE) To Warp Speed!

Homer: Bart, What else do Nippons and Fortune-500 Top-10s lack to comprehend as a hardcore scientific truism while we are are experiencing a light-speed multi-eon age, way beyond millennials, exponential technologies, other societal and demographic and economic current imperatives?

Bart: Dad, that can be stated simply. I will tell you some things that Kaizen, Toyota Production Systems, Agile, Lean Manufacturing, Continuous Improvement, Juran’s Prescription, Six Sigma, Los Alamos’ Process Engineering and many other approaches, without forgetting that applied Systems Reliability allow America to upgrade its technological hotbeds when it made a quantum leap from Henry Ford’s knowledge base to moonshotting the Apollo Program into Moon-landing!

Homer: Bart, What are those considerations in the preceding paragraph that almost all Nippons and Fortune-500 Top-10s are failing to consider?

Bart: Dad, for instance, Paul Valéry (1932) wrote,

“… All the notions we thought solid, all the values of civilized life, all that made for stability in international relations, all that made for regularity in the economy … in a word, all that tended happily to limit the uncertainty of the morrow, all that gave nations and individuals some confidence in the morrow … all this seems badly compromised. I have consulted all augurs I could find, of every species, and I have heard only vague words, contradictory prophecies, curiously feeble assurances. Never has humanity combined so much power with so much disorder, so much anxiety with so many playthings, so much knowledge with so much uncertainty …”

AND:

Charles Dickens (1798) wrote,

“ …It was the best of times, it was the worst of times … it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair …”

AS WELL:

COMMENTARY BY BART: As per my evidence-based research and perpetual verification in real time, the only Singularity that there will be is not the Technological Singularity, but what I call the Disruptional Singularity. However, if every citizen in the world gets his, her act together the soonest, there is hope for a better world at a later time.

IF YOU THINK THIS IS FLAWED, SEE THE MASSIVE SECRET REPORTS OF THE N.I.C. ( NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL at http://1.usa.gov/1gloStR) TO THE INCUMBENT OF THE WHITE HOUSE.

THIS TOO:

Prof. Michio Kaku, Ph.D. indicates:

“… By the end of the twentieth century, science had reached the end of an era, unlocking the secrets of the atom, unraveling the molecule of life, and creating the electronic computer. With these three fundamental discoveries, triggered by the quantum revolution, the DNA revolution, and the computer revolution, the basic laws of matter, life, and computation were, in the main, finally solved .… That epic phase of science is now drawing to a close; one era is ending and another is only beginning .… The next era of science promises to be an even deeper, more thoroughgoing, more penetrating one than the last .… Clearly, we are on the threshold of yet another revolution. HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history. COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS. Almost daily, the headlines herald new advances in computers, telecommunications, biotechnology, and space exploration. In the wake of this technological upheaval, entire industries and lifestyles are being overturned, only to give rise to entirely new ones. But these rapid, bewildering changes are not just quantitative. They mark the birth pangs of a new era .… FROM NOW TO THE YEAR 2020, SCIENTISTS FORESEE AN EXPLOSION IN SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY SUCH AS THE WORLD HAS NEVER SEEN BEFORE. IN TWO KEY TECHNOLOGIES, COMPUTER POWER AND THE DNA SEQUENCING, WE WILL SEE ENTIRE INDUSTRIES RISE AND FALL ON THE BASIS OF BREATHTAKING SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES. SINCE THE 1950S, THE POWER OF OUR COMPUTERS HAS ADVANCED BY A FACTOR OF ROUGHLY TEN BILLION. IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE .… BY 2020, MICROPROCESSORS WILL LIKELY BE AS A CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL AS SCRAP PAPER, SCATTERED BY THE MILLIONS INTO ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING US TO PLACE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING AROUND US, INCLUDING THE NATURE OF COMMERCE, THE WEALTH OF NATIONS, AND THE WAY WE COMMUNICATE, WORK, PLAY, AND LIVE…” [171]

AND AS WELL:

Nanotechnology and life by Ray Kurzweil (as of May 2009)!

“…Nanotechnologies are broad concept, it’s simply refers to technology where the key features in measuring the small number of nanometers. A NANOMETER IS THE DIAMETER OF FIVE CARBON ATOMS SO IT’S VERY CLOSE TO THE MOLECULAR LEVEL AND WE ALREADY HAVE NEW MATERIALS AND DEVICES THAT HAD BEEN MANUFACTURED AT THE NANOSCALE. IN FACT, CHIPS TODAY, THE KEY FEATURES ARE 50 OR 60 NANOMETERS SO THAT IS ALREADY NANOTECHNOLOGY. The true promise of nanotechnology is that ultimately we’ll be able to create devices that are manufactured at the molecular level by putting together, molecular fragments in new combinations so, I can send you an information file and a desktop nanofactory will assemble molecules according to the definition in the file and create a physical objects so I can e-mail you a pair of trousers or a module to build housing or a solar panel and WE’LL BE ABLE TO CREATE JUST ABOUT ANYTHING WE NEED IN THE PHYSICAL WORLD FROM INFORMATION FILES WITH VERY INEXPENSIVE INPUT MATERIALS. You can… I mean, just a few years ago if I wanted to send you a movie or a book or a recorded album, I would send you a FedEx package, now I can e-mail you an attachment and you can create a movie or a book from that. On the future, I’ll be able to e-mail you a blouse or a meal. So, that’s the promise of nanotechnology. Another promise is to be able to create devices that are size of blood cells and by the way biology is an example of nanotechnology, the key features of biology are at the molecular level. SO, THAT’S ACTUALLY THE EXISTENCE PROOF THAT NANOTECHNOLOGY IS FEASIBLE BUT BIOLOGY IS BASED ON LIMITED SIDE OF MATERIALS. EVERYTHING IS BUILT OUT OF PROTEINS AND THAT’S A LIMITED CLASS OF SUBSTANCES. WITH NANOTECHNOLOGY WE CAN CREATE THINGS THAT ARE FAR MORE DURABLE AND FAR MORE POWERFUL. One scientist designed a robotic red blood cell it’s a thousand times more powerful than the biological version so, if you were to replace a portion of your biological red blood cells with this respirocytes the robotic versions. You could do an Olympic sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath or sit at the bottom of your pool for 4 hours. If I were to say someday you’ll have millions or even billions of these nanobots, nano-robots, blood cell size devices going through your body and keeping you healthy from inside, I might think well, that sounds awfully futuristic. I’d point out this already in 50 experiments in animals of doing exactly that with the first generation of nano engineered blood cell size devices. One scientist cured type 1 diabetes in rats with the blood cell size device. Seven nanometer pores let’s insulin out in the controlled fashion. At MIT, there’s a blood cell size device that can detect and destroy cancer cells in the bloodstream. These are early experiments but KEEP IN MIND THAT BECAUSE OF THE EXPONENTIAL PROGRESSION OF THIS TECHNOLOGY, THESE TECHNOLOGIES WILL BE A BILLION TIMES MORE POWERFUL IN 25 YEARS AND YOU GET SOME IDEA WHAT WILL BE FEASIBLE …” [199]

Homer: Bart, Does ISO standards suffice?

Bart: Dad, the provisions by International Organization for Standardization ( http://www.iso.org/iso/home.html ) are a good starting point, but not sufficiently optimal for Google X, DARPA, NASA, plain-vanilla Google, Amazon and other ground-breaking organizations, obsoleting New Frontiers frequently. Nonetheless, ISO standards are considered buy they do not intellectually castrate today’s winners-take-it-all!

Homer: Bart, What is updatedness? Does it affect Kaizen, TPS, Lean Manufacturing and the like?

Bart: Dad, your question demand that you memorize a Maxim for Life! Tis:

“… Everything is somewhat related related to everything else…” The “…somewhat…” is there to underlying mean that withing the “…fabrics…” of Cosmos’ Dark Matter and Dark Energy, everything is connected in discrete modes.

SO, YOU ASK HOW TO UNDERSTAND REAL-WORLD ZEITGEIST AND UPDATEDNESS, FLUIDLY?

TO THIS UTTER PURPOSE:

Austrian-American Peter Ferdinand Drucker (ISBN: 978–0060851149) strongly argues, as I have verified in my 33-year-old continual evidence-based research, that people’s schemas (understandings of the world), belief systems, worldviews, and most cherished notions and truisms, as well as Weltanschauung, have a median and in average — as per the 1990’s standards — of twenty (20) years of obsolescence per each person.

Factual proof, available and to this Bart, strongly indicates that such obsolescence has exponentially widened with the elapse of time while technological breakthroughs and scientific discoveries are more prevalent and obvious.

To-this-end details are to be found in the White Swan book.

WE NOW HAVE, FOR INSTANCE:

1.- A Russian Submarine in sovereign waters of Sweden. Along with some deep military provocations to other areas of the former Warsaw Act. France is asking Germany an emergency loan of 80 billion Euros.

2.- A great potential not to an Ebola epidemic, but pandemic. Ebola is decimating some African regions.

3.- ISIS (so-called Islamic States), with potentials to reach the Indian Ocean and Eurabia.

4.- Israel/Palestine Conflict.

5.- Ukraine’s lost of Crimea.

6.- Russia wanting to remind the world that there are a Galatic Superpower, not only in perilous Eastern Europe, Europe in General, and the World at large. Some reports argue that Russia will have a military presence in the Seven Seas, including a Military Base domiciled in the Arctic and Antarctic. Remember?

7.- Cold War II.

8.- Arms Race II.

9.- Space-Age War to Conquer the Outer Space, with novel players such as India.

10.- The Global Existential Risk of the Weather and the Environment.

11.- The Universal Deflation of the Advanced Economies of the Planet.

12.- The Universal Surplus of Corrupted Politicians and Universal Lack of Employment.

13.- If we get lucky, we can also get into M.A.D. WWIII.

13.- So forth.

N.B.: Dad, remember that if you think that the geopolitical tensions in the China South Sea do not affect the business operations of for-lucre multinationals around the world, I must tell you that these corporate warriors, Fortune 500, Sony Corporation and otherwise, has ludicrous planned and executed Strategies and Strategizing ones.

Then, Dad, the right question is, How can we fundamentally Kaizen the thirteen items above?

Homer: Bart, all of what you tell me sounds most complicated, son!

Bart: Dad, it is not complicated, but most complex. I will try to explain why with a message to all MANAGERS, regardless of their Professional Lines of Practices and the Core Business of their respective firms.

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY’ SIR MARTIN REES, PH.D. (BRITISH ASTRONOMER ROYAL) FORCEFULLY SUGGEST TO MANAGERS TO BECOME PRACTICALLY AND PRACMATICALLY FLUENT AND COGNIZANT IN THE “…SCIENCE OF COMPLEXITY …” (ISBN: 978–0671872342) AND TO FURTHER ILLUSTRATE CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, BENEFITS AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS, HE WROTE:

“ … Science is emphatically not, as some have claimed, approaching its end; it is surging ahead at an accelerating rate. We are still flummoxed about the bedrock nature of physical reality, and the complexities of life, the brain, and the cosmos. New discoveries, illuminating all these mysteries, will engender benign applications; but will also pose NEW ETHICAL DILEMMAS AND BRING NEW HAZARDS …. BUT THERE IS A DARK SIDE: NEW SCIENCE CAN HAVE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES; IT EMPOWERS INDIVIDUALS TO PERPETRATE ACTS OF MEGATERROR; EVEN INNOCENT ERRORS COULD BE CATASTROPHIC. THE ‘DOWNSIDE’ FROM TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY TECHNOLOGY COULD BE GRAVER AND MORE INTRACTABLE THAN THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR DEVASTATION THAT WE HAVE FACED FOR DECADES. AND HUMAN-INDUCED PRESSURES ON THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT MAY ENGENDER HIGHER RISKS THAT THE AGE-OLD HAZARDS OF EARTHQUAKES, ERUPTIONS, AND ASTEROID IMPACTS …”

Homer: Bart, it seems to me that the External Environment has been immeasurably underestimated by these Kaizen-centric and ‘Six Sigma’-focused corporations, being now elucidated to me that the external threats are not abstract, but formidably dangerous to the totality of the “…business as usual…” as IF the for-lucre affairs are carried on within the indoors of the Internal Environment.

So, Bart, you have upped so much White Swan “…Transformative and Integrative Risk Management…” ( http://amzn.to/1wUhrDq ) to a point of superseding and ruling, by a nonlinear order of explosive magnitude, functions such as Systems Quality Assurance, Systems Reliability, Systems Safety, Systems Security, among other amenities about which Andy holds under Fort Knock’s proprietary secret of his sole own.

I CAN SEE THAT “…TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT…” (PROBLEM-SOLVING METHODOLOGY) HAS TAKEN BALKANIZED FUNCTIONS, REFINED THEM, UPDATED THEM AND UPGRADED THEM AND BROUGHT THEM INTO A SEAMLESS MONOLITHIC INTEGRATION, ACTING AS THE MILKY WAY’S BERLUSCONI TO GUARANTEE SUSTAINED BUSINESS SUCCESS. HAVING ACKNOWLEDGED THAT, DOES “…TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT…” TAKE OVER OTHER FUNCTIONS?

Bart: Dad, I see that you are beginning to understand. “…TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT…” also takes charge, from Alpha to Omega, of the entire planned and executed Corporate Strategy, directly reporting to the CEO, Chairman, and Board of Directors.

Homer: Bart, What type of professional c-level executives are we going to need to institute the preceding?

Bart: Dad, Infinitely beyond the Black-Belt Senseis.

IN ALL SPECIFICITY, SEE THE FOLLOWING:

In any management undertaking today, and given the universal volatility and rampant and uninterrupted rate of change, one must think and operate in a fluid womb-to-tomb mode.

The manager must think and operate holistically, both systematically and systemically, at all times.

In the twentieth-one century, How top managers must be, in order to succeed?

The manager must also be: i) Multidimensional, ii) Interdisciplinary, iii) Cross-disciplinary (or Interdisciplinary), iv) Multifaceted, v) Cross-functional, vi) Multifarious, vii) Multi-specializing, viii) Multimodal, ix) Cross-Referential, x) Multitasking, xi) Cross-pollinating, xii) Cross-fertilizing, xiii) Cross-sectional and xiv) Longitudinal.

THAT IS, THE MANAGER MUST NOW BE AN EXPERT STATE-OF-THE-ART IN-ALL-PRACTICALITY (A) GENERALIST AND (B) ERUDITE.

An expert state-of-the-art in-all-practicality generalist and erudite INCLUDES, as per 1999’s SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation) CEO, Mr. Roger Brown, observed that my notion comprises of:

(I.-) A Knowledgist,

(II.-) A Champion, and

(III.-) A Braingainer.

ALSO:

THIS EXPERT STATE-OF-THE-ART IN-ALL-PRACTICALITY GENERALIST AND ERUDITE MUST ALSO CONJOINTLY INCLUDE A STRONG BONDING TO:

(A.-) Science,

(B.-) Punditry,

(C.-) Nerdiness,

(D.-) Wizardry. — (“… Any sufficiently advanced technology is virtually indistinguishable from magic…” —Arthur C. Clarke).

ERGO, THIS IS THE NEWEST SPECIALIST AND SPECIALIZATION.

Homer: What is therefore your own definition for Kaizen, Bart?

Bart: Dad, this is it:

“… Kaizen, Japanese for “improvement” or “change for the best”, refers to philosophy or practices that focus upon continuous improvement of processes in manufacturing, engineering, business management or any process. It has been applied in healthcare, [.…] psychotherapy, [.…] life-coaching, government, banking, and other industries. When used in the business sense and applied to the workplace, kaizen refers to activities that continually improve all functions, and involves all employees from the CEO to the assembly line workers. It also applies to processes, such as purchasing and logistics, that cross organizational boundaries into the supply chain. [.…] By improving standardized activities and processes, kaizen aims to eliminate waste (see lean manufacturing). Kaizen was first implemented in several Japanese businesses after the Second World War, influenced in part by American business and quality management teachers who visited the country. It has since spread throughout the world [.…] and is now being implemented in environments outside of business and productivity …”

Homer: And how about Six Sigma defined, Bart?

Bart: Dad, this is it:

“ … Six Sigma is a set of techniques and tools for process improvement. It was developed by Motorola in 1986, coinciding with the Japanese asset price bubble which is reflected in its terminology [.…] Jack Welch made it central to his business strategy at General Electric in 1995. Today, it is used in many industrial sectors …. Six Sigma seeks to improve the quality of process outputs by identifying and removing the causes of defects (errors) and minimizing variability in manufacturing and business processes. It uses a set of quality management methods, including statistical methods, and creates a special infrastructure of people within the organization (“Champions”, “Black Belts”, “Green Belts”, “Yellow Belts”, etc.) who are experts in these methods. Each Six Sigma project carried out within an organization follows a defined sequence of steps and has quantified value targets, for example: reduce process cycle time, reduce pollution, reduce costs, increase customer satisfaction, and increase profits. These are also core to principles of Total Quality Management (TQM) as described by Peter Drucker and Tom Peters (particularly in his book “In Search of Excellence” in which he refers to the Motorola six sigma principles) …”

Homer: Why is leadership so spoken against by Leadership Specialist and Harvard University Prof. Barbara Kellerman, PhD., author of The End of Leadership (ISBN: 978–0062069160), Bart?

Bart: Dad, while in a society there is Universal Drunk Sodom and Universal Cocained Gomorrah, you will never have REAL MORALITY, by any rational measure. AND IF YOU DO NOT HAVE OPTIMAL MORALITY IN PLACE, THERE ARE TWO THINGS THAT YOU WILL NEVER HAVE.

FIRST, YOU WILL NEVER HAVE AN OPTIMAL AND FUNCTIONAL ETHICAL STANDING TO CONDUCT BUSINESS CORRECTLY THAT ARE FISCALLY SOUND.

SECOND, NEITHER MANAGERS, NOR EMPLOYEES, NOR THEIR RESPECTIVE ORGANIZATIONS WILL NEVER ACHIEVE THE NECESSARY FUNCTIONAL OUTCOMES TO NURTURE AND SUSTAIN THE FINANCIALS OF THE ORGANIZATION IN QUESTION.

“FIRST” AND “SECOND” IS ALL OVER THE PLACE GLOBALLY, BOTH IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND PUBLIC SECTOR, AS WELL AS THE NGO SECTOR.

Homer: So, to the best of their abilities, How far and wide angle goes the Grand View of BlackBelts in tackling with real world operational and non-operational problems, Bart?

Bart: Dad, my evidence-based research show a calculus of about 270 degrees within the mean of top-performing BlackBelts.

Homer: Having said that, Bart, What those BlackBelts need to get the missing and remaining 90 degrees back into the top performing?

Bart: Dad, what it takes is to understand and to prepare for the forthcoming White Swan book’s excerpt. Please see it here!

IT LITERALLY GOES LIKE THIS:

1.-) “…HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]…” [226]

2.-) “…COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS…” [226]

3.-) “… BEGINNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE IN THE KNOWN WORLD AT THE TIME OF CHRIST, STUDIES HAVE ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD’S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013 …” [226]

4.- ) “…KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING BY EVERY FOURTEEN MONTHS…” [226]

5.-) “…MORE THAN THE DOUBLING OF COMPUTATIONAL POWER [IS TAKING PLACE] EVERY YEAR…” [226]

6.-) “…The flattening of the world is going to be hugely disruptive to both traditional and developed societies. The weak will fall further behind faster. The traditional will feel the force of modernization much more profoundly. The new will get turned into old quicker. The developed will be challenged by the underdeveloped much more profoundly. I worry, because so much political stability is built on economic stability, and economic stability is not going to be a feature of the flat world. Add it all up and you can see that the disruptions and going to come faster and harder. No one is immune — not me, not you, not Microsoft. WE ARE ENTERING AN ERA OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION ON STEROIDS. Dealing with flatism is going to be a challenge of a whole new dimension even if your country has a strategy. But if you don’t have a strategy at all, well, again, you’ve warned…” [226]

END OF THE INFORMATION CITED BY BART.

Homer: Don’t you find the solutions to this age esoteric, Bart?

Bart: Dad, No, and it is funny that you mentioned it. I once met a Scots executive who told me that beyond-insurance risk management methodology by DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), NASA, Boeing, Lockheed Martin (L.M.‘s motto, “… What’s impossible today won’t be tomorrow …” ) and Royal Dutch/Shell Group, practicing Systems Approach with the Non-Theological Applied Omniscience Problem-Solving Method since the late 1970’s, was “…esoteric…” I still treasure his aesthetic e-mail.

TO THE DISMAL AND UNCOMFORT OF SAID SCOTS EXECUTIVE, LET US SEE THE FOLLOWING:

Most-Honorable Mr. Willy Brandt (18 December 1913 – 8 October 1992) — was a German politician and Chancellor of Germany:

“…Those who adhere to the past won’t be able to cope with the future…”

Homer: Bart, Can you tell me one (1) thing BlackBelts and Senseis are missing in full-scope Quality Assurance and Continuous Improvements in the twentieth-one century?

Bart: Dad, Certainly! I will tell you six (6) examples below. In each example, BlackBelts and Senseis have to do SOMETING EXTRA and way beyond out-of-the-box foolishness.

BY WAY OF EXAMPLE:

If you are into Toyota Production System and you are the Sony Corporation, you need to know a lot of Five Rings (ISBN: 978–1935785972).

If you are into Continuous Process Improvement and you are General Electric, you ALSO need to know a lot of Niccolo Machiavelli’s The Prince (ISBN-13: 978–0226500447).

If you are into Juran’s Prescription and you are Jack Ma’s (http://bit.ly/1Ds2Mla) Alibaba Group (http://bit.ly/1uzDRIv), you ALSO need to know a lot of Sun Tzu’s The Art Of War (ISBN: 978-1454911869).

If you are into Six Sigma and you are Motorola, you ALSO need to know a lot of Joseph Fouché’s Portrait of a Politician (ISBN: 978–1165614356).

If you are into Kaizen and you are Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) and Mercedes-Benz, you ALSO need to know a lot of Frederick The Great On The Art Of War (ISBN: 978–0306809088).

If you are into Lean Manufacturing and you are DARPA or NASA, you ALSO need to know a lot of Napoleons Art of War (ISBN: 978–1566196956).

Homer: Bart, Really? I did not know that!

Bart: Dad, they are and will never be as open as I am. In the final analysis to be and to come, they will be instituting the Extra Miles above.

Homer: Son, How did you get to learn about the subject matter here?

Bart: Dad, The problem with you is that you forget it all. When I was 25 I was fully introduced and indoctrinated on worldwide Royal Dutch Shell’s scenario-planning methodology by Shell’s nationalized company Maraven. That introduction and indoctrination came through the kind deeds and executive decision of and by Maraven President, Dr. Carlos Castillo and the high-ranking strategic planners under his command. The view and application of scenario-planning methodology by Maraven, as well as the training to me, included all theoretical and practical quality-assurance and continuous-improvement prescriptions by: Dr. W. Edwards Deming, Dr. Joseph Juran, Mr. Bill Conway, U.S. Navy, Kaizen and Hitachi. With serious quality assurance and continuous improvement, one must exercise (like in scenario planning) great foresight and learning in advance in order to eliminate forthcoming “defects” or “flaws,” leaving leeway to countermeasure unknonwables. All of my Maraven training included all of the preceding. Maraven was a created and an acculturated full-scope petroleum company by Shell and then under the absolute tutelage and management control of state-owned PDVSA (Citgo’s parent company). Maraven was affluently applying scenario-planning methodology as it was exactly conceived, designed and practiced by Pierre Wack (an unconventional French oil executive who was the first to develop the use of scenario planning in the private sector, at Royal Dutch Shell’s London headquarters in the 1970s.) Wack is the father of scenario planning in the private sector. For more details on this noted Guru, go to the Economist at http://www.economist.com/node/12000502 .
Homer: Son, where is the repository of this Fenchman?
Bart: Dad, Wack’s public writings are meager and kept under the intellectual copyrighted ownership of Shell. Wack’s methodological heir was Honorable Mr. Peter Schwartz, a previous Shell executive, the former Chairman of Global Business Network (www.gbn.com) and author of the groundbreaking book on scenario planning: “…The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World…” (ISBN-13: 978–1863160995). Wack and Schwartz are the greatest proponents of 3-scenario analysis. In my case, I institute “…hazard-scenario planning…” and the number of plausible and implausible outputted “outlooks” (scenarios) are only limited by the designated budget by the Client. I am going to explain what “ouput” means in Systems Engineering. You have the Systems Transformational “Box,” throughputting (marshaling) “…known inputs…” into “…desirable outputs…” (outcomes). BUT, FOR A LONG TIME UNTIL YEAR 1999, I HAD A REVOLTING QUESTION: WHERE DOES THE EXACT AND MOST UNDERLYING GENESIS OF SCENARIO PLANNING REALLY COME FROM? When I study contemporary authors I always wonder if I can find the actual “root” philosopher, scientist and thought leader that first brought about an idea, notion, maxim, theory or approach. For instance, great American self-help author Napoleon Hill got his first name and success tenets after and from (respectively) Napoleon Bonaparte. I research the works by the original ones first and then I might check out the works by the contemporary versions afterwards.

Homer: Son, and the U.S. Industrial-Military Complex’s involvement with this Dr. Strangeloves’ thinking thing?

Bart: Dad, COMING BACK TO THE MAIN SUBJECT MATTER, I finally founded that scenario planning was developed by the U.S. during the 1950’s and as great existential challenges were threatening the country’s National Security doctrine as a direct result of the Cold War (1947–1991). In consequence, I knew the exact and primordial, in-all-truth root and understood that DoD (1789 — present), DARPA (1958 — present), NASA (1958 — present) and Military-Industrial Complex (1961 — present) and other agencies and private contractors (including Skunkworks ones) were the founding fathers of advanced scenario-planning methodology. Many scientists and engineers worked extremely hard at it, including NASA’s Dr. Wernher von Braun ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wernher_von_Braun ) and the plethora of elitist scientists collaborating with him. But the gravest inflection point came by the Sputnik Crisis (also known as the “Sputnik Moment”). From this point onward, one find the salient research by RAND Corporation’s polymath futurist Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983). To give you an idea on Kahn’s intellectual mind-set style, please check these clear-eyed assertions by him: “…I’m against ignorance…I am against the whole cliché of the moment…I’m against fashionable thinking…I’m against sloppy, emotional thinking…” (http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/h/herman_kahn.html). United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld argued, “…Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don’t know…” But many years before “… unknown unknowns…” by Rumsfeld, Khan was the ultimate pioneer in superseding “…the unthinkable…” This by Khan is one of the pillars of Transformative and Integrative Risk Management and The Future of Scientific Management, Today! He did offer a theoretical body and practical mode of approaching its theory. The most important global institutions of the world, into profit or not, are into stern “unthinkable” discerning, beginning with those of us into advanced beyond-insurance risk management and strategy. Wikipedia’s citation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Kahn) on “…the unthinkable…” polymath futurist is extremely educational. An excerpt of this citation indicates, “…Herman Kahn was a founder of the Hudson Institute and one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally come to prominence as a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND Corporation. He became known for analyzing the likely consequences of nuclear war and recommending ways to improve survivability, making him an inspiration for the title character of Stanley Kubrick’s classic black comedy film satire Dr. Strangelove. His theories contributed to the development of the nuclear strategy of the United States.…Kahn’s major contributions were the several strategies he developed during the Cold War to contemplate ‘the unthinkable’ – namely, nuclear warfare – by using applications of game theory. (Most notably, Kahn is often cited as the father of scenario planning. During the mid-1950s, the Eisenhower administration’s prevailing nuclear strategy had been one of ‘massive retaliation’, enunciated by Secretary of State John Foster Dulles. According to this theory, dubbed the ‘New Look’, the Soviet Army was considerably larger than that of the United States and therefore presented a potential security threat in too many locations for the Americans to counter effectively at once. Consequently, the United States had no choice but to proclaim that its response to any Soviet aggression anywhere would be a nuclear attack…Kahn considered this theory untenable because it was crude and potentially destabilizing. He argued that New-Look theory invited nuclear attack by providing the Soviet Union with an incentive to precede any conventional localized military action somewhere in the world with a nuclear attack on U.S. bomber bases, thereby eliminating the Americans’ nuclear threat immediately and forcing the United States into the land war it sought to avoid.…In 1960, as Cold War tensions were near their peak following the Sputnik crisis and amidst talk of a widening ‘missile gap’ between the United States and the Soviet Union, Kahn published On Thermonuclear War, the title of which clearly alluded to On War, the classic 19th-century treatise by the German military strategist Carl von Clausewitz.…Kahn rested his theory upon two premises, one obvious, one highly controversial. First, nuclear war was obviously feasible, since the United States and the Soviet Union currently had massive nuclear arsenals aimed at each other. Second, like any other war, it was winnable.…Whether hundreds of millions died or ‘merely’ a few major cities were destroyed, Kahn argued, life would go on – as it had, for instance, after the Black Death in Europe during the 14th century, or in Japan after the limited nuclear attack in 1945 – contrary to the conventional, prevailing doomsday scenarios. Various outcomes might be far more horrible than anything hitherto witnessed or imagined, but some of them nonetheless could be far worse than others. No matter how calamitous the devastation, Kahn argued that the survivors ultimately would not ‘envy the dead’ and to believe otherwise would mean that deterrence was unnecessary in the first place. If Americans were unwilling to accept the consequences, no matter how horrifying, of a nuclear exchange, then they certainly had no business proclaiming their willingness to attack. Without an unfettered, un-ambivalent willingness to ‘push the button’, the entire array of preparations and military deployments was merely an elaborate bluff.…The bases of his work were systems theory and game theory as applied to economics and military strategy. Kahn argued that for deterrence to succeed, the Soviet Union had to be convinced that the United States had second-strike capability in order to leave the Politburo in no doubt that even a perfectly-coordinated massive attack would guarantee a measure of retaliation that would leave them devastated as well: «…At the minimum, an adequate deterrent for the United States must provide an objective basis for a Soviet calculation that would persuade them that, no matter how skillful or ingenious they were, an attack on the United States would lead to a very high risk if not certainty of large-scale destruction to Soviet civil society and military forces…».…Superficially, this reasoning resembles the older doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) due to John von Neumann, although Kahn was one of its vocal critics. Strong conventional forces were also a key element in Kahn’s strategic thinking, for he argued that the tension generated by relatively minor flashpoints worldwide could be dissipated without resort to the nuclear option…”

Homer: Son, Do you have closing remarks about the preceding?

Bart: You bet it, Dad. Given all of the prior and to the end of all of the encompassed in the totality of this dialogue with you, Dad, I understand and summon the following:

1.- Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence, government agencies and entities, NGOs, business enterprises and supranationals. Nonetheless, scenario planning as per Wack and Khan is breathtaking but in itself does not suffice in contemporary times.

2.- Along with item “1.-” there is also the concomitant application of 2.1.- Systems Theory, 2.2.- Game Theory, 2.3.- Wargaming Theory and 2.4.- Many other modes of practical strategic thinking and strategic execution. By example, Game Theory and Wargaming Theory ? both under the Systems Thinking Approach ? are extremely well addressed by Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, PhD. You may wish to explored his book: “The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future” (ISBN-13: 978–0812979770). To me Napoleon Bonaparte is the greeters Systems Thinker ever beyond any military campaign. If you are hesitant about it, please ask systems engineers, physicists, other scholars and managers, as well as prominent historians. 80% of the teaching by Bonaparte are taught in all U.S. Military Academies. In my case and as per my own experience, NASA-beloved Leonado Da Vinci’s publications can be an over-learning device for the prepared mind.

3.- With “1.-” and “2.-” in place, there is also the application of Compound Forecasting without the ruling out the vast computing calculation and transformation of narrative data and numerical data. I have many reasons to state that I use 70% of Qualitative Analytics and 30% of Quantitative Analytics. Algorithms don’t outsmart the biological brain yet. By year 2000, before the Dawn of Strong Big Data, the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) CEO, Mr. Roger Brown and me were experimenting in seizing an optimal computerized reading pertaining to the “success likelihood” of a major business initiative to be jointly launched by our respective interests. This was another way of “futuring” that resulted exceedingly interesting.

4.- In addition to all posited in “1.-”, “2.-” and “3.-”, it is, too, highly advisable the concurrent implementation of other practical methodologies of and by 4.1.- Futures Studies and 4.2.- Foresight Research.

5.- All numbered items above and in a rogue yet subtle search and recursive exploration of the totality of the whole (by holistic means), everything there must be seamlessly integrated and instituted in accordance with Systems Thinking with the Systemic and Systematic Applied Omniscience Perspective as it is understood both by Applied Engineers and Physicists. All stakeholders institutes all the approaches hereby in order to avoid disruption potentials. One of the world’s best and more authoritative example is NASA and everything by it. For decades, NASA has been developing beyond-insurance risk management technologies and services for its own initiatives, projects and missions, as well as for august global corporations. In the Summer of 2013, an American group of oil-and-gas that operate globally asked NASA for a “Space-Age Risk Management” service to them as it was made official in a NASA Press Release at http://www.nasa.gov/centers/johnson/news/releases/2013/J13-014.html Kindly please remember that Risk Management is neither taking calculated risks in Wall Streets, nor managing “challenges” by insurance and reinsurance companies. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management is, in all actuality, OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT PER SE to greatly exploit upsides and downsides before they happen. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management or “…Transformative and Integrative Risk Management…” is, by far, much more than Beyond-”…Sarbanes–Oxley Act…” Risk Management. You see, “reinsurance” is a fancy term that equates to amounts of “…insurance purchased by and for insurance companies…” If a tiny or gargantuan insurance company instituted Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, said insurance company would not need at all to buy any reinsurance “protection” or so-called “cover.”

6.- There are many leading government agencies and entities, NGOs and global corporations that, since many years now, practice everything above in parallel (simultaneously). This is under universal practice by agencies and business enterprises into Aerospace and Defense. Institutions ? that I have worked with that practice avant-garde “scenario planing” and Transformative and Integrative Risk Management ? encompass: Toyota, Mitsubishi, World Bank, Shell, Statoil, Total, Exxon, Mobil, PDVSA/Citgo, GE, GMAC, TNT Express, GTE, Amoco, BP, Abbot Laboratories, World Health Organization, Ernst Young Consulting, SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation), Pak Mail, Wilpro Energy Services, Phillips Petroleum Company, Dupont, Conoco, ENI (Italy’s petroleum state-owned firm), Chevron, and LDG Management (HCC Benefits).

7.- Many professional futurists and other scientists and entrepreneurs have formidable notions and idea but lack the direct experience in managing a dangerous corporate theater of operations (framework). To find out more about relentless Scenario-Planning Methodology and Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, you are most welcome to consider the interview at http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC (republished by the Lifeboat Foundation and Forward Metrics).

Homer: Son, A rhetoric question: How do you manage to be the top brain behind the Bilderberg Group (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilderberg_Group )?

Homer: Bart, What else do I not know, Bart?

Bart: Dad, that the direct incumbents of systematically applying Kaizen, Toyota Production System, Lean Manufacturing, Agile, Extreme Project Management, Six Sigma, Process Engineer and the like, as well as cradle-to-grave Strategists and so-called Futurists, are blinded powerless and intellectually castrated to deal with all of the ensuing:

A.- Black Swans,

B.- Gray Swans,

C.- Sputnik Moments,

D.- Negative Risks (the opposite of Positive Risks),

E.- Downside Futures, and

F.- Black-Box Events. PERIOD!

ABSOLUTE END.

Authored By Copyright Mr. Andres Agostini

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

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