Machine learning is taking medical diagnosis by storm. From eye disease, breast and other cancers, to more amorphous neurological disorders, AI is routinely matching physician performance, if not beating them outright.
Yet how much can we take those results at face value? When it comes to life and death decisions, when can we put our full trust in enigmatic algorithms—“black boxes” that even their creators cannot fully explain or understand? The problem gets more complex as medical AI crosses multiple disciplines and developers, including both academic and industry powerhouses such as Google, Amazon, or Apple, with disparate incentives.
This week, the two sides battled it out in a heated duel in one of the most prestigious science journals, Nature. On one side are prominent AI researchers at the Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University of Toronto, Stanford University, Johns Hopkins, Harvard, MIT, and others. On the other side is the titan Google Health.
A robot controlled by a neural network algorithm that was trained in a video game-like simulation is better able to navigate difficult terrain in real life.
Now Karlin, Klein and Oveis Gharan have proved that an algorithm devised a decade ago beats Christofides’ 50 percent factor, though they were only able to subtract 0.2 billionth of a trillionth of a trillionth of a percent. Yet this minuscule improvement breaks through both a theoretical logjam and a psychological one. Researchers hope that it will open the floodgates to further improvements.
“This is a result I have wanted all my career,” said David Williamson of Cornell University, who has been studying the traveling salesperson problem since the 1980s.
The traveling salesperson problem is one of a handful of foundational problems that theoretical computer scientists turn to again and again to test the limits of efficient computation. The new result “is the first step towards showing that the frontiers of efficient computation are in fact better than what we thought,” Williamson said.
Recently, researchers from the Institute of Intelligent Machines developed a new wavelength selection algorithm based on combined moving window (CMW) and variable dimension particle swarm optimization (VDPSO) algorithm.
CMW retained the advantages of the moving window algorithm, and different windows could overlap each other to realize automatic optimization of spectral interval width and number. VDPSO algorithms improved the traditional particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm.
This new algorithm, which is called VDPSO-CMW, could search the data space in different dimensions, and reduce the risk of limited local extrema and over fitting.
A team of researchers affiliated with a host of institutions in Korea and one in Estonia has found a way to use math to study paintings to learn more about the evolution of art history in the western world. In their paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the group describes how they scanned thousands of paintings and then used mathematical algorithms to find commonalities between them over time.
Beauty, as the saying goes, is in the eye of the beholder—and so it is also with art. Two people looking at the same painting can walk away with vastly different impressions. But art also serves, the researchers contend, as a barometer for visualizing the emotional tone of a given society. This suggests that the study of art history can serve as a channel of sorts—illuminating societal trends over time. The researchers further note that to date, most studies of art history have been qualitatively based, which has led to interpretive results. To overcome such bias, the researchers with this new effort looked to mathematics to see if it might be useful in uncovering features of paintings that have been overlooked by human scholars.
The work involved digitally scanning 14,912 paintings—all of which (except for two) were painted by Western artists. The data for each of the paintings was then sent through a mathematical algorithm that drew partitions on the digital images based on contrasting colors. The researchers ran the algorithm on each painting multiple times, each time creating more partitions. As an example, the first run of the algorithm might have simply created two partitions on a painting—everything on land, and everything in the sky. The second might have split the land into buildings in one partition and farmland in another.
The Solar Mapper uses artificial intelligence algorithms that compile data extracted from satellite images. It can estimate site solar potential and indicate the most suitable technology.
Humans are innately able to adapt their behavior and actions according to the movements of other humans in their surroundings. For instance, human drivers may suddenly stop, slow down, steer or start their car based on the actions of other drivers, pedestrians or cyclists, as they have a sense of which maneuvers are risky in specific scenarios.
However, developing robots and autonomous vehicles that can similarly predict human movements and assess the risk of performing different actions in a given scenario has so far proved highly challenging. This has resulted in a number of accidents, including the tragic death of a pedestrian who was struck by a self-driving Uber vehicle in March 2018.
Researchers at Stanford University and Toyota Research Institute (TRI) have recently developed a framework that could prevent these accidents in the future, increasing the safety of autonomous vehicles and other robotic systems operating in crowded environments. This framework, presented in a paper pre-published on arXiv, combines two tools, a machine learning algorithm and a technique to achieve risk-sensitive control.
Scientists at the University of Hawaii’s Mānoa Institute for Astronomy (IfA) have used AI to produce the world’s largest 3D catalog of stars, galaxies, and quasars.
The team developed the map using an optical survey of three-quarters of the sky produced by the Pan-STARRS observatory on Haleakalā, Maui.
They trained an algorithm to identify celestial objects in the survey by feeding it spectroscopic measurements that provide definitive object classifications and distances.
The blockchain revolution, online gaming and virtual reality are powerful new technologies that promise to change our online experience. After summarizing advances in these hot technologies, we use the collective intelligence of our TechCast Experts to forecast the coming Internet that is likely to emerge from their application.
Here’s what learned:
Security May Arrive About 2027 We found a sharp division of opinion, with roughly half of our experts thinking there is little or no chance that the Internet would become secure — and the other half thinks there is about a 60% probability that blockchain and quantum cryptography will solve the problem at about 2027. After noting the success of Gilder’s previous forecasts, we tend to accept those who agree with Gilder.
DecentralizationLikely About 2028–2030 We find some consensus around a 60% Probability and Most Likely Year About 2028–2030. The critical technologies are thought to focus on blockchain, but quantum, AI, biometrics and the Internet of things (IoT) also thought to offer localizing capabilities.
Immersion Highly Likely About 2031–2032 The experts show good agreement on a 70% probability that immersive capabilities will arrive about 2031–2032. They also suggest a variety of technologies will make this possible: blockchain, VR and AR, gaming, AI, IoT and a useful brain-computer interface.
EMERGING INTERNET TECHNOLOGIES
The Blockchain Revolution George Gilder’s latest book, Life After Google, is a landmark forecast on what he calls the “cryptocosm.” Like his earlier book, Microcosm, which forecast the Information Technology Revolution caused by microchips, followed by Telecosm, which forecast today’s explosion of wireless technology, the cryptocosm extends major advances in blockchain technology into all spheres of the Internet.
Gilder thinks the cryptocosm will produce a web that overthrows the top-down monopolies of Google, Facebook, Amazon and the other tech giants that have created a web that is insecure, clumsy and destined to fail. Using stunning examples of brilliant technological advances by pioneering entrepreneurs, Life After Google promises an Internet that is secure, private, decentralized and controlled by users rather than the tech giants.
In Gilder’s terms:
“Google is hierarchical. Life after Google will be heterarchical. Google is top-down. Life after Google will be bottom-up. Google rules by the insecurity of the lower layers in the stack. A porous stack enables the money and power to be sucked up to the top. In Life after Google, a secure ground state in the individual, registered and timestamped in a digital ledger, will prevent this suction of hierarchical power.”
A telling sign is that China is leading the blockchain revolution. In October of 2019, Premier Xi Jinping called on the nation to “seize the opportunity of blockchain technology as a new security architecture for the Internet.” In April 25, 2020, China launched its national blockchain platform, the Blockchain Service Network (BSN). In time, Xi plans to replace their national currency and other currencies around the globe with new digital systems.
Advanced Gaming
Related breakthroughs are underway as gaming technology becomes vividly immersive, interactive, intelligent and 3 dimensional — creating the famed Metaverse pioneered a
few years ago by Second Life. Nintendo’s Animal Crossing, Facebook’s Horizon, Epic Games’ Fortnite, Minecraft, and other contenders are blazing a path that seems likely to move virtual reality from expensive headsets into everyday life on the web. There were 2.6 billion people playing games globally in 2017, producing revenue of $100 billion.
Jacob Novak, CEO Genvid Technologies, expects the web to become “a mix of game engines, interactivity and video… game engines will be the primary way people will have interfaces with the Internet.”
Travis Scott, a celebrated gamer in Fortnite, thinks “As VR and AR evolve, we’ll be able to build truly immersive virtual worlds.”
Virtual Reality
After years of sluggish growth in VR, we are seeing the convergence of the Internet, high-resolution graphical interfaces, greater computing power, motion sensors, 3D modeling, digital games, and social networking. We also see the rise of augmented reality (AR) – digital information laid over the real-world environment. Experts think these diverse virtual environments will converge into a virtual metaverse. TechCast expects VR to reach mainstream adoption about 2023 + 3/- 1 years and the market will reach about US$550 billion when it hits saturation level about 2030.
VR is also finding its way into business applications. Here’s how Kevin Cardona, head of innovation at BNP Paribas, said it benefits their company: “We are truly convinced that we need to invest in the technology because it will help us to be a company active in 50 countries around the world with clients all over the world.”
Here are other prominent forecasts:
Facebook’s Mark Zuckerberg thinks “Immersive 3D is the obvious next thing after video.”
Heather Bellini, an executive at Goldman Sachs, thinks: “VR and AR will be as transformative as the smartphone.”
Jim Blascovich and Jeremy Bailenson, authors of Infinite Reality, expect a future where “your avatar fills in for you at virtual meetings while you do something more important.”
COLLECTIVE INTELLIGENCE OF TECHCAST EXPERTS
After giving the TechCast experts this background information on leading technologies, we asked them to estimate the prospects for security, decentralization and immersion on the Internet. Results are summarized below.
Security
The most striking feature of our data shows dramatically different views on the prospects for improving security. One group of 8 responses averages less than a 20% probability this will happen, and another group of 9 responses averages more than an 80% probability. A similar bi-modal distribution shows 10 people with an average “most likely year” of about 2027, while another group of 8 averages much later than 2040. The good news is that both groups seem to agree that blockchain and quantum cryptography are the likely technologies to make this happen, with the help of AI.
With such starkly divided opinion, additional insight seems needed to reconcile this impasse. Both cannot be correct. Yes, George Gilder’s claim is hard to accept, but he has been proven correct on similar forecasts. That’s why The Economist called him “America’s foremost technology prophet.”
Here’s how Gilder sums up his forecast in Life After Google: “Some thousands of companies you’ve never heard of are investing billions in that effort [to fix the lack of security on the internet]. Collectively they will give birth to a new network whose most powerful architectural imperative will be security of transactions… So fundamental will security be to this new system that it’s very name will be derived from it. It will be the cryptocosm…”
Marc Andreessen, the billionaire who invented the first web browser, endorsed Gilder’s forecast for blockchain when he told The Washington Post: “This is the big breakthrough. This is the thing we’ve been waiting for… [Gilder] should get the Nobel prize… Hundreds or thousands of applications and companies that could get built on top [of this]…”
Looking over this evidence, we are more impressed by Gilder and his supporters. Our best forecast is that blockchain and quantum cryptography, along with a dash of AI, are likely to introduce a secure form of Internet about 2027. It may also require tougher laws, and it may not be perfect as some glitches are always possible, of course. But TechCast thinks it is coming and long overdue. Serious doubts are normal, of course, but we think the doubts may be what Arthur C. Clarke attributed to “failures of imagination and will.”
Decentralization
The possibility of decentralizing the web into a bottom up system that is no longer dominated by the big tech giants seems more plausible to our respondents. There remains a wide distribution of estimates in the bar charts below, but not a bi-polar distribution. Although many think there is zero probability this will happen, other responses form a fairly normal distribution averaging about 60%. Timing is also less divided, suggesting that these changes are likely to arrive about 2028–2030. The responsible technologies are thought to focus on blockchain, but quantum, AI, biometrics and the Internet of things (IoT) also thought to offer localizing capabilities. I suspect George Gilder would largely agree with this forecast.
The need to decentralize control is gaining some traction. Dfinity is building what it calls the internet computer, a decentralized technology spread across a network of independent data centers that allows software to run anywhere on the internet, rather than in server farms that are increasingly controlled by large firms. It’s planning a public release later this year. However, a free-for-all internet could make it difficult to hold app makers accountable. It could also require a decentralized form of governance which could lead to infighting. It’s not the first to try to remake the internet, so can it succeed where others have failed? Read the full story.
Immersion
Unlike Security and Decentralization, our experts tend to agree on the feasibility of sensory immersion in the Internet. The bar charts show a distribution centered around 70% probability and a most likely year of 2031–2032 when immersion arrives. They also suggest a variety of technologies will make this possible: blockchain, VR and AR, gaming, AI, IoT and a useful brain-computer interface. Gilder would be proud of these results.
Despite pockets of doubt and uncertainty, we think this study tells a compelling story about evolution of the Internet. The continuing advance of computer power, possibly using quantum, nanotech and photonic technologies, is likely to make complex blockchain platforms feasible over the coming decade. Along with applications of quantum crypto and AI, a new generation of Web systems is likely to greatly improve security and move control from tech companies to individuals. Some confusion and security failures will remain, of course, but glitches will be accepted by a younger cohort of users. The development of richer Internet experiences using VR/AR/XR, biometrics, AI, the IoT and holograms is very likely to bloom into the Metaverse long anticipated. Obviously, many other trends will also play important roles in the new Internet, as noted in our experts’ comments.
The strategic implications should be formidable. The status and control of the large tech companies is likely to shift to users, and the Internet service providers (Verizon, Comcast, etc.) may face competition from satellite systems flooding the air with cheap and abundant access. Apple and Elon Musk are launching satellites even now and expect to envelop the Earth with high-capacity broadband in a year or two. In addition to fierce competition from these new sources, the entire supply chain of ICT equipment and services will be disrupted by an advanced generation of suppliers. Users should gain more sophisticated and immersive capabilities that are needed for the high-tech society ahead.
CONCLUSION
This is small study, but TechCast thinks it illustrates the power of using collective intelligence to provide authoritative strategic analyses of hot topics. This study outlines the new Internet architecture that promises to revolutionize life online. The normal doubts are there, of course, but this authoritative analysis strongly indicates that we should see a different Internet emerge during this decade that is secure, decentralized and immersive.
