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Join me for a quick review of the spikes & dips in the Bitcoin exchange rate. This time, it’s all about one very simple chart…

The chart below shows a history of BTC price spikes, dips and recovery. Click to enlarge, then start at the top—and move down.

  • Consider the percent-pullback after each spike (red label)
  • Think about the stellar rebound after each drop (green label)

This is why I do not get too worked up over the plunge in the BTC exchange rate. There are no fundamental flaws in Bitcoin math or mechanisms. The market need for the benefits conveyed by Bitcoin is terrific, and the most popular arguments against Bitcoin are severely flawed. Skeptics and Critics typically say something like this:

“Even if blockchain currencies are beneficial and inevitable, Bitcoin can be displaced by another, better cryptocurrency.”

—OR—

“A viable crypto may emerge—but it will be one that is backed by a tangible asset or issued/sanctioned by government.”

These arguments are false. They are made by individuals who don’t yet fully appreciate the mechanism and its relationship with trust, money, government and free markets.

What Bitcoin currently lacks is education, familiarity, standards, simple commercial tools (built upon clear analogies), definitive best practices, a widespread understanding of multisig & security, and limited recourse for certain commercial & retail transactions. But Bitcoin is still an infant, just like the early TV or the early telephone. All of these are under development—without a hint of significant obstacles. Even the messy process of democracy among the various stakeholders is heading toward harmony (miners, developers, vendors, exchanges and consumers).

Of course, I am bullish on Bitcoin, and this may color my analysis. But, I try hard to keep an open mind. There have been moments in its history where I have questioned the market need or the potential for a setback in politics, legislation, or the mechanism itself. Those doubts are in the past. Bitcoin has demonstrated the elegance and value of the blockchain—and the ability to evolve beyond the blockchain with SegWit and Lightning Network. It has achieved a fluid, robust and growing two-sided market.

No one holding assets likes to see a big price pullback. It’s natural to look at the market as if we each got in at the peak—and then tally the “losses”. But I, for one, am not glancing toward the exit. I see the future and I sleep well at night. I am comfortable participating in the Bitcoin era.

Philip Raymond co-chairs CRYPSA, hosts the Bitcoin Event and is keynote speaker at Cryptocurrency Conferences. He sits on the New Money Systems board of Lifeboat Foundation and is a top writer at Quora. Book a presentation or consulting.

Join me for a quick review of the spikes & dips in the Bitcoin exchange rate. This time, it’s all about one very simple chart. [continue below graphic]…

The chart below shows a history of BTC price spikes, dips and recovery. Click to enlarge, then start at the top—and move down.

      • Consider the percent-pullback after each spike (red label)
      • Think about the stellar rebound after each drop (green label)

The table at right illustrates why I do not get too worked up over the plunge in the BTC exchange rate. There are no fundamental flaws in Bitcoin math or mechanisms, the market need for benefits conveyed by Bitcoin is terrific, and popular arguments against Bitcoin are severely flawed. Skeptics and Critics typically say this:

“Even if blockchain currencies are beneficial and inevitable, Bitcoin can be displaced by another, better cryptocurrency.”

—Or—

“A viable crypto may emerge—but it will be one that is backed by a tangible asset or issued/sanctioned by government.”

These arguments are false. They are made by individuals who don’t yet fully appreciate a distributed, consensus mechanism and, especially, its relationship with trust, value, government and free markets.

What Bitcoin currently lacks is education, familiarity, standards, simple commercial tools (built upon clear analogies), definitive best practices, a widespread understanding of multisig & security, and limited recourse for certain commercial & retail transactions. But Bitcoin is still an infant, just like the early TV or the early telephone. All of these are under development—without a hint of significant obstacles. Even the messy process of democracy among the various stakeholders is heading toward harmony (miners, developers, vendors, exchanges and consumers).

Of course, I am bullish on Bitcoin, and this may color my analysis. But, I try hard to keep an open mind. There have been moments in its history where I have questioned the market need or the potential for a setback in politics, legislation, or the mechanism itself. Those doubts are in the past. Bitcoin has demonstrated the elegance and value of the blockchain—and the ability to evolve beyond the blockchain with SegWit and Lightning Network. It has achieved a fluid, robust and growing two-sided market.

No one holding assets likes to see a big price pullback. It’s natural to look at the market as if we each got in at the peak—and then tally the “losses”. But I, for one, am not glancing toward the exit. I see the future and I sleep well at night. I am comfortable participating in the Bitcoin era.

Philip Raymond co-chairs CRYPSA, hosts the Bitcoin Event and is keynote speaker at Cryptocurrency Conferences. He advises The Disruption Experience in Singapore, sits on the New Money Systems board of Lifeboat Foundation and is a top writer at Quora. Book a presentation or consulting engagement.

If you are reading this on January 16, 2018, then you are aware that Bitcoin (and the exchange rate of most other coins) fell by 20% today. Whenever I encounter a panic sell-off, the first thing that I do is try to ascertain if the fear that sparked the drop is rational.

But what is rational fear? How can you tell if this is the beginning of the end, or simply a transient dip? In my book, rational fears are fundamental facts like these:

  • A new technical flaw is discovered in the math or mining
  • A very major hack or theft has undermined confidence
  • The potential for applications that are fast, fluid and ubiquitous
    has dropped, based on new information*

Conspicuously missing from this list is “government bans” or any regulation that is unenforceable, because it fails to account for the design of what it attempts to regulate. Taxes, accounting guidelines, reporting regulations are all fine! These can be enforced. But banning something that cannot be banned is not a valid reason for instilling fear in those who have a stake in a new product, process, or technology.

Rule of Acquisition #1:

Drops triggered by false fears present buying opportunities

At times like this, you must make a choice: If you can’t afford to stay in the market and risk a bigger drop, then cash out and live with it. But if you believe in crypto and the potential for a digital future that dis-intermediates your earning, spending and savings, then this drop in dollar value presents opportunity.

This downturn will pass, because the cryptocurrency fundamentals have not changed or been undermined by recent events. There is no new technical flaw or hack. The potential for cash transactions and future applications get rosier every day (let’s assume that Bitcoin will finally add Lightning Network and that miners will stop fighting with developers)*

The current 20% drop is not a big deal. It takes us back to an exchange rate that we saw just one month ago in early December. It was triggered by saber rattling in South Korea. But, let’s face it: Governments have as much influence over trading or spending cryptocurrency as they do over the mating of squirrels in your backyard. Do you think fewer squirrels would mate, if the government banned them from mating?

If you can answer that question—and if you can afford to stay in the game—then relax. 1 BTC has the same value today as it had yesterday and the day before. It is worth exactly one bitcoin. The current dip in exchange rate with other currencies was sparked by fear; and that fear is misguided or irrational.

[click below for perspective]…

* Bitcoin has a serious limitation in transaction throughput and transaction cost. The problem is serious and it frustrates users, developers, miners and vendors. But it is not new, and the consensus about its likelihood of being corrected has not suddenly changed. These limitations are unrelated to today’s large drop in exchange value.

Philip Raymond co-chairs CRYPSA, publishes A Wild Duck and hosts the New York Bitcoin Event. He is keynote speaker at the Cryptocurrency Expo in India this month. Click Here to inquire about a presentation or consulting engagement.

Yesterday was D-Day in the Bitcoin world: On Tuesday, Aug 1st 2017, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) forked off of Bitcoin (BTC). For anyone with control over their wallet and private keys, they now have an equal amount of BTC and BCH.

I have a Bitcoin wallet. Yet, I don’t have any new Bitcoin Cash—and I have no one to blame but myself. Will I ever get the BCH associated with my pre-fork coins? I think that it is likely, though certainly not assured. If not, it will still be my fault. After all, I had fair warning from the company that I trust as custodian of my assets.

A Cryptocurrency Mantra:
“Woe be the person who trusts decentralized cash to a custodian”

I trust Coinbase for good reason. I left my BTC in my Coinbase wallet and vault throughout the fork. Let me tell you how I view the risks of failing to remove my coins before August 1…

  1. Coinbase was clear in warning that BTC withdrawals would be frozen before and after a fork. No problem…I had no immediate need to access my coins.

2. Coinbase warned they had no plan to support BCH—not even for withdrawal after a fork.

I accepted this 2nd warning, even though their reasoning and motives were terribly weak. But, today, I feel very sore. I need a morning after pill! Bitcoin still trades at the level of the past week—about $2700 US/BTC. But my non-existent BCH holdings have significant value! It was briefly as high as $750 per coin, and is now trading at $475. This means that even if I have no desire to save or spend the new coin, I no longer have the option to liquidate my forked asset. I lost a slam-dunk opportunity to capture 17½%.

We’re not talking about a theoretical gain or a gain that assumes liquidation at a momentary spike. We’re talking about right now—a missed opportunity to pocket thousands of dollars!

Am I angry? Not really. I am disappointed at my lack of initiative. I have only myself to blame. For the record—I don’t believe that I have a reasonable legal claim against Coinbase. After all, they warned me! But, I believe that they will give me my forked coins—eventually. They have already acknowledged to conspiracy theorists that they will not keep the forked BCH, in the event that they create a conversion mechanism. In that case, they will allow withdrawal by the owner of the associated BTC. Now that they see dramatic fractional value, how could they not complete the fork?!

Where Does This Leave Me?

I’m not poorer today than I was yesterday, and I still have the same value in Bitcoin. But, I missed a zero-risk opportunity to gain 17½% overnight. It was staring me in the face and I passed it up. At least I draw comfort in my confidence that Coinbase will complete the fork. Please, Coinbase: Complete the fork!

Philip Raymond owns Bitcoin, but has no Bitcoin Cash. He co-chairs CRYPSA and Bitcoin Event, is columnist & board member at Lifeboat Foundation, editor at WildDuck, and keynote speaker at Digital Currency Summit in Johannesburg. He is a leading author at Quora.