Lorraine Luk | The Wall Street Journal
“While the company has automated more manufacturing processes for components and established some lights-out, or workerless, factories, replacing dexterous human hands that pack tiny flexible parts into the tight structure of consumer electronics remains challenging” Read more
Amir Mizroch | Wall Street Journal
“Facebook’s AI research is currently being used in image tagging, predicting which topics will trend, and face recognition. All of these services require algorithms to sift through vast amounts of data, like pictures, written messages, and video, to make calculated decisions about their content and context. Facebook has a big advantage over university campuses who have toiled for decades in the field. It can vacuum up the reams of data required to ‘teach’ machines to make correlations.” Read more
Scott Andes & Mark Muro | Brookings Institute
“The substantial variation of the degree to which countries deploy robots should provide clues. If robots are a substitute for human workers, then one would expect the countries with much higher investment rates in automation technology to have experienced greater employment loss in their manufacturing sectors…Yet the evidence suggests there is essentially no relationship between the change in manufacturing employment and robot use.” Read more
Posted in evolution, homo sapiens, robotics/AI | 1 Comment on Robotic EQ
Can an emotional component to artificial intelligence be a benefit?
Robots with passion! Emotional artificial intelligence! These concepts have been in books and movies lately. A recent example of this is the movie Ex Machina. Now, I’m not an AI expert, and cannot speak to the technological challenges of developing an intelligent machine, let alone an emotional one. I do however, know a bit about problem solving, and that does relate to both intelligence and emotions. It is this emotional component of problem solving that leads me to speculate on the potential implications to humanity if powerful AI’s were to have human emotions.
Why the question about emotions? In a roundabout way, it has to do with how we observe and judge intelligence. The popular way to measure intelligence in a computer is the Turing test. If it can fool a person through conversation, into thinking that the computer is a person, then it has human level intelligence. But we know that the Turing test by itself is insufficient to be a true intelligence test. Sounding human during dialog is not the primary method we use to gauge intelligence in other people or in other species. Problem solving seems to be a reliable test of intelligence either through IQ tests that involve problem solving, or through direct real world problem solving.
As an example of problem solving, we judge how intelligent a rat is by how fast it can navigate a maze to get to food. Let’s look at this in regards to the first few steps in problem solving.
Fundamental to any problem solving, is recognizing that a problem exists. In this example, the rat is hungry. It desires to be full. It can observe its current state (hungry) and compare it with its desired state (full) and determine that a problem exists. It is now motivated to take action.
Desire is intimately tied to emotion. Since it is desire that allows the determination of whether or not a problem exists, one can infer that emotions allow for the determination that a problem exists. Emotion is a motivator for action.
Once a problem is determined to exist, it is important to define the problem. In this simple example this step isn’t very complex. The rat desires food, and food is not present. It must find food, but its options for finding food are constrained by the confines of the maze. But the rat may have other things going on. It might be colder than it would prefer. This presents another problem. When confronted with multiple problems, the rat must prioritize which problem to address first. Problem prioritization again is in the realm of desires and emotions. It might be mildly unhappy with the temperature, but very unhappy with its hunger state. In this case one would expect that it will maximize its happiness by solving the food problem before curling up to solve its temperature problem. Emotions are again in play, driving behavior which we see as action.
The next steps in problem solving are to generate and implement a solution to the problem. In our rat example, it will most likely determine if this maze is similar to ones it has seen in the past, and try to run the maze as fast as it can to get to the food. Not a lot of emotion involved in these steps with the possible exception of happiness if it recognizes the maze. However, if we look at problems that people face, emotion is riddled in the process of developing and implementing solutions. In the real world environment, problem solving almost always involves working with other people. This is because they are either the cause of the problem, or are key to the problem’s solution, or both. These people have a great deal of emotions associated with them. Most problems require negation to solve. Negotiation by its nature is charged with emotion. To be effective in problem solving a person has to be able to interpret and understand the wants and desires (emotions) of others. This sounds a lot like empathy.
Now, let’s apply the emotional part of problem solving to artificial intelligence. The problem step of determining whether or not a problem exists doesn’t require emotion if the machine in question is a thermostat or a Roomba. A thermostat doesn’t have its own desired temperature to maintain. Its desired temperature is determined by a human and given to the thermostat. That human’s desires are a based on a combination of learned preferences from personal experience, and hardwired preferences based on millions of years of evolution. The thermostat is simply a tool.
Now the whole point behind an AI, especially an artificial general intelligence, is that it is not a thermostat. It is supposed to be intelligent. It must be able to problem solve in a real world environment that involves people. It has to be able to determine that problems exists and then prioritize those problems, without asking for a human to help it. It has to be able to socially interact with people. It must identify and understand their motivations and emotions in order to develop and implement solutions. It has to be able to make these choices which are based on desires, without the benefit of millions of years of evolution that shaped the desires that we have. If we want it to be able to truly pass for human level intelligence, it seems we’ll have to give it our best preferences and desires to start with.
A machine that cannot chose its goals, cannot change its goals. A machine without that choice, if given the goal of say maximizing pin production, will creatively and industriously attempt to convert the entire planet into pins. Such a machine cannot question instructions that are illegal or unethical. Here lies the dilemma. What is more dangerous, the risk that someone will program an AI that has no choice, to do bad things, or the risk that an AI will decide to do bad things on its own?
No doubt about it, this is a tough call. I’m sure some AIs will be built with minimal or no preferences with the intent that it will be simply a very smart tool. But without giving an AI a set of desires and preferences to start with that are comparable to those of humans, we will be interacting with a truly alien intelligence. I for one, would be happier with an AI that at least felt regret about killing someone, than I would be with an AI that didn’t.
Kyle Vanhemert | WIRED
“Your computer isn’t a person, but as psychological studies have shown, you often can’t help but treat it like a one. “ Read more
— NewsWeek
Despite his millions, the world of Moscow property development left Nikolay Gurianov “really bored.” Two motorbike crashes later, he reckoned it was time to move on, find a new business and swap two wheels for four.
He asked a marketeer: “What is the most interesting business that isn’t property, oil, armaments, diamonds, drugs or slavery?” And so began his career in IT—and a switch to Aston Martins.
In 2002, he set up Braintree, a technology outfit that helped Russian firms “optimise databases.” But databases too failed to ignite Gurianov. Drifting, he lit on artificial intelligence (AI). At last, here was a challenge fit for both intellect and wallet. Read more
Steve Lohr | The New York Times
“The company and its partners say that technology, economics and policy changes are coming together to improve the odds of making the IBM venture a workable reality. They point to improvements in artificial intelligence, low-cost cloud computing and health policy that will reward keeping patients healthy instead of the fee-for-service model in which more treatments and procedures mean more revenue.” Read more
Posted in biotech/medical, business, economics, education, engineering, environmental, futurism, government, innovation, robotics/AI, sustainability | Leave a Comment on Galactic Public Archives Presents: “New Narratives: Innovation for Jobs” the series
‘New Narratives: Innovation for Jobs’ is a series by i4j (Innovation for Jobs) and the GPA exploring perspectives on important topics that will impact the future of work, jobs and employment.
About i4j: (iiij.org/i4j) Innovation for Jobs conferences bring together individuals from the public and private sectors to discuss the changing economy. “We engage in initiatives creating structures for developing shared language across silos. The starting point for any innovation is the creation of shared language, enabling stakeholders and change agents to interact horizontally.”
This film was created at the Mountain View 2015 i4j Conference. What are your hopes and fears about the future of meaningful work?
Vint Cerf at i4j: Employment Disruption Does Not Need to be Destruction
About Vint Cerf:
Vinton G. Cerf is vice president and Chief Internet Evangelist for Google. He contributes to global policy development and continued spread of the Internet. Widely known as one of the “Fathers of the Internet,” Cerf is the co-designer of the TCP/IP protocols and the architecture of the Internet. He has served in executive positions at MCI, the Corporation for National Research Initiatives and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and on the faculty of Stanford University. Vint Cerf served as chairman of the board of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) from 2000–2007 and has been a Visiting Scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory since 1998. Cerf served as founding president of the Internet Society (ISOC) from 1992–1995. Cerf is a Fellow of the IEEE, ACM, and American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the International Engineering Consortium, the Computer History Museum, the British Computer Society, the Worshipful Company of Information Technologists and a member of the National Academy of Engineering. He currently serves as Past President of the Association for Computing Machinery, chairman of the American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN), chairman of StopBadWare and recently completed his term as Chairman of the Visiting Committee on Advanced Technology for the US National Institute of Standards and Technology. President Obama appointed him to the National Science Board in 2012. Cerf is a recipient of numerous awards and commendations in connection with his work on the Internet, including the US Presidential Medal of Freedom, US National Medal of Technology, the Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering, the Prince of Asturias Award, the Tunisian National Medal of Science, the Japan Prize, the Charles Stark Draper award, the ACM Turing Award, Officer of the Legion d’Honneur and 21 honorary degrees. In December 1994, People magazine identified Cerf as one of that year’s “25 Most Intriguing People.”
David Nordfors and Vint Cerf at i4j: Innovation Ecosystems Disrupting Unemployment
About David Nordfors:
David Nordfors is CEO and co-founder of IIIJ and the chair of the i4j Summit. He was previously co-founder and Executive Director of the Center for Innovation and Communication at Stanford University. He was one of the World Economic Forum Innovation 100 in 2009, and has served on WEF Global Agenda Councils. He serves on advisory boards of the Poynter Institute, Discern Investment Analytics and Black & Veatch. He is an adjunct professor at IDC Herzliya in Israel, a visiting professor at Tallinn University, the Tecnologico de Monterrey, and the Deutsche Welle Akademie. He was advisor to the Director General at VINNOVA, the Swedish Agency for Innovation Systems, where he co-initiated the national Swedish Incubator System and set up a bi-national R&D fund between Sweden and Israel for mobile applications. He was Director of Research Funding of the Knowledge Foundation, KK-stiftelsen, administering an endowment of $300MUSD, building a funding framework underwriting over a hundred innovation initiatives between universities and industry. He initiated and headed the first hearing about the Internet to be held by the Swedish Parliament. He has a Ph.D. in physics from the Uppsala University and did his postdoc in Theoretical Chemistry in Heidelberg, Germany.
Marjory Blumenthal at i4j: Our Blindspots in Forecasting the Future of Work
About Marjory Blumenthal:
Marjory Blumenthal is the Executive Director of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). She joined PCAST after a decade combining academic leadership at Georgetown University with research and advisory activities (including as a RAND adjunct) aimed at understanding Internet and cybersecurity technology trends and policy implications. At PCAST, she manages the Council and its program of analyses yielding policy recommendations to the President and the Administration, and she fosters the implementation of PCAST recommendations. This work spans the broad landscape of science and technology, addressing implications for the economy, society, and government programs. It engages PCAST’s approximately 20 distinguished scientists and engineers from industry and academia plus hundreds of experts consulted for study-projects and the Council’s regular meetings. Working under tight time constraints, in May 2014 she produced the PCAST report, Big Data and Privacy: A Technological Perspective. Between July 1987 and August 2003, Marjory was the Executive Director of the National Academies’ Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, producing over 60 influential reports that frequently addressed the evolution of the Internet and/or cybersecurity. Marjory did her undergraduate work at Brown University and her graduate work at Harvard University.
John Hagel at i4j: The (Painful) Big Shift to Meaningful Work
About John Hagel:
John Hagel is a consultant and author who specializes in the intersection of business strategy and information technology. In 2007, Hagel, along with John Seely Brown, founded the Deloitte Center for the Edge, a research center based in Silicon Valley. Hagel is also involved with a number of other organizations, including the World Economic Forum, the Santa Fe Institute, and the Aspen Institute. He is credited with inventing the term “infomediary” in his book, NetWorth with Marc Singer, published by the Harvard Business School Press in 1999. He has published a series of seven books including the best-selling business books, Net Gain, Net Worth, Out of the Box, The Only Sustainable Edge and, most recently, The Power of Pull.
Esther Wojcicki at i4j: Educating for the Unforeseen Jobs of the New Economy
About Esther Wojcicki:
Esther Wojcicki is an educational innovator using journalism courses as a vehicle for training youth in problem-based project-oriented learning, developing skill sets for the innovation economy. Applying this method, she has headed the development of what has become the largest high school journalism program in the U.S involving 600 students, at the Palo Alto High School. She was the 1990 Northern California Journalism teacher of the year, the 2002 California State Teacher Credentialing Commission Teacher of the Year, was recognized for inspiration and excellence in scholastic journalism advising by the National Scholastic Press Association in 2008, and was awarded the Gold Key Award by Columbia University Scholastic Press in 2009. She has served on the University of California Office of the President Curriculum Committee. She served as the Google educational consultant, co-designing the Google Teacher Academy and Google Faculty Institute. She holds a B.A. degree from UC Berkeley in English and Political Science, and a M.A. in Educational Technology from San Jose State University. She also has a Master’s from the Graduate School of Journalism at Berkeley and an advanced degree in French and French History from the Sorbonne, Paris. She has worked as a professional journalist for multiple publications and now blogs regularly for HuffingtonPost.
Curt Carlson at i4j: The Practice of Innovation
About Curt Carlson:
Curt Carlson was SRI’s President and CEO from 1998 to 2014. During this time SRI’s revenue more than tripled and SRI became a global model for the systematic creation of high-value innovations, such as HDTV, Intuitive Surgical, Siri (now on the iPhone), and other world changing advances. Mayfield Ventures partner, David Ladd, said, “SRI is now the leading company in the world at converting its technology into commercial value”. Carlson is a pioneer in the development and use of innovation best practices and an evangelist for innovation, education, and economic development, sharing best practices with government agencies, businesses, and foundations around the world. His insights on R&D and value creation led to creation of the Five Disciplines of Innovation process, used by companies, universities, and government agencies in the United States, Sweden, Finland, Chile, Malaysia, Japan, Brazil, and Taiwan. They are applying these innovation practices for growth, prosperity, and job creation. Before joining SRI, Carlson worked at RCA, GE, and the Sarnoff Corporation, which became part of SRI in 1987. In 1977 he started and helped lead the high-definition television (HDTV) program that became the U.S. standard and won an Emmy Award in 1997. Another team started by Carlson won an Emmy for satellite broadcast image quality in 2001.
He has helped form more than two-dozen new companies. Carlson was named a Fellow of the National Academy of Inventors in 2012. In 2006, Carlson won the Otto Schade Prize for Display Performance and Image Quality from the Society for Information Display with Roger Cohen. He served on President Obama’s National Advisory Council on Innovation and Entrepreneurship. He is a member of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Singapore National Research Foundation and Taiwan’s Scientific Advisory Board. In addition he serves on the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Engineering Advisory Council and has served on the Air Force Science Advisory Board, the Defense Science Board, various National Laboratory Review Panels, and the National Academy of Engineering Committee on Manufacturing, Design, and Innovation.
He has been on numerous commercial boards, including Nuance Communications, Pyramid Vision Technologies, Sensar, and Sarif. He was a member of the General Motors’ Science and Technology Advisory Board. Carlson has received honorary degrees from the Malaysian Technical University (MTU), Stevens Institute of Technology, Kettering University, and Worcester Polytechnic Institute, where he is a trustee.
With William Wilmot, Carlson wrote Innovation: The Five Disciplines for Creating What Customers Want, published by Random House and selected by BusinessWeek as one of the top 10 business books for 2006. Carlson received his B.S. degree in physics from WPI and was named in Who’s Who Among Students. He is a member of Tau Beta Pi and Skull. His M.S. and Ph.D. degrees were from Rutgers University. Carlson has published or presented numerous technical publications and holds fundamental patents in the fields of image quality, image coding, and computer vision.
Robin Chase at i4j: New Labor Systems can Save the Climate
About Robin Chase:
Robin Chase is a transportation entrepreneur. She is founder and former CEO of Zipcar, the largest carsharing company in the world; Buzzcar, a service that brings together car owners and drivers in a carsharing marketplace in France; and GoLoco, an online ridesharing community. She is also Executive Chairman of Veniam, a vehicle communications company building the networking fabric for the Internet of Moving Things. She is on the Boards of the Massachusetts Department of Transportation, the World Resources Institute, and Tucows. She also served on the National Advisory Council for Innovation & Entrepreneurship for the US Department of Commerce, the Intelligent Transportations Systems Program Advisory Committee for the US Department of Transportation, the OECD’s International Transport Forum Advisory Board the Massachusetts Governor’s Transportation Transition Working Group, and Boston Mayor’s Wireless Task Force. Robin lectures widely, has been frequently featured in the major media, and has received many awards in the areas of innovation, design, and environment, including Time 100 Most Influential People, Fast Company Fast 50 Innovators, and BusinessWeek Top 10 Designers. Robin graduated from Wellesley College and MIT’s Sloan School of Management, was a Harvard University Loeb Fellow, and received an honorary Doctorate of Design from the Illinois Institute of Technology.
Mikko Kosonen at i4j: A Vision for Sustainable Wellbeing
About Mikko Kosonen:
Mikko Kosonen has been the President of the Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra since 2008. He worked for Nokia between 1984 and 2007, his last two positions being Senior Vice President of Strategy and Business Infrastructure and Senior Advisor. Kosonen has served as a board member with a number of companies and institutions, including Itella Corporation, Kesko, Kuntien Tiera Oy, Telia-Sonera, Fifth Element Oy, Technology Academy Finland and the Foundation for Economic Education.Mikko Kosonen completed his PhD in International Business at the Helsinki School of Economics in 1991. He was awarded Honorary Professorship of Budapest Business School in 2012. He has published several books and articles on strategic management, most recently Fast Strategy – How Strategic Agility will help you stay ahead of the game (2008) and New Deal at the Top – Harvard Business Review (2007), both with Professor Yves Doz.
Steve Jurvetson at i4j: Going Long on the Future of Work?
Steve Jurvetson is a Managing Director of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, a venture capital firm. He was the founding VC investor in Hotmail (MSFT), Interwoven (IWOV), Kana (KANA), and NeoPhotonics (NPTN). He also led the firm’s investments in other companies which were then acquired for $12 billion in aggregate. Current Board positions include SpaceX, Synthetic Genomics, and Tesla Motors (TSLA). Previously, Steve was an R&D Engineer at Hewlett-Packard, where seven of his communications chip designs were fabricated. His prior technical experience also includes programming, materials science research (TEM atomic imaging of GaAs), and computer design at HP’s PC Division, the Center for Materials Research, and Mostek. He has also worked in product marketing at Apple and NeXT Software. Steve also holds an MS in Electrical Engineering from Stanford. He received his MBA from the Stanford Business School, where he was an Arjay Miller Scholar. He also serves on the Advisory Boards of SRI International, STVP, and the Stanford Engineering Venture Fund and is Co-Chair of the NanoBusiness Alliance. He was honored as “The Valley’s Sharpest VC” on the cover of Business 2.0 In 2005, Steve was honored as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum and a Distinguished Alumnus by St. Mark’s, where he was the 2010 Commencement Speaker.
Astro Teller at i4j: Innovation Requires Inspired Workers (Systematizing Innovation)
About Astro Teller:
Dr. Astro Teller currently oversees Google[x], Google’s moonshot factory for building magical, audaciously impactful ideas that can be brought to reality through science and technology. Before joining Google, Astro was the co-founding CEO of Cerebellum Capital, Inc, an AI-based investment management firm. Previously, Astro was the co-founding CEO of BodyMedia, a leading wearable body monitoring company. Prior to BodyMedia, Dr. Teller was co-founding CEO of SANDbOX AD, an advanced development technology incubator. Dr. Teller holds a BS in computer science and an MS in symbolic and heuristic computation, both from Stanford, and a Ph.D. in artificial intelligence from Carnegie Mellon, where he was a recipient of the Hertz fellowship. Through his work as a scientist, inventor and entrepreneur, Dr. Teller holds many U.S. and international patents related to his work in hardware and software technology. Astro is also a successful novelist and screenwriter, with a new book out entitled “Sacred Cows.”
Astro Teller at i4j: Innovation that Works Can’t Wait for Miracles
You Won’t Be Automated: Innovation for Jobs
Tyler Hayes | Fast Company
“The inherently robotic system begs to be humanized and explained. The first question Taylor had to ask himself was if what Tocchini was attempting was even possible. Could he translate design intention into an algorithm that was always producing new and relevant results—something that satisfied a broad range of needs and desires?” Read more
Steve Lohr | The New York Times
“Many data quants see marketing as a low-risk — and, yes, lucrative — petri dish in which to hone the tools of an emerging science. ‘What happens if my algorithm is wrong? Someone sees the wrong ad,’ said Claudia Perlich, a data scientist who works for an ad-targeting start-up. ‘What’s the harm? It’s not a false positive for breast cancer.’…These questions are spurring a branch of academic study known as algorithmic accountability.” Read more