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Ask just about anyone on the street to describe artificial intelligence and odds are, they’ll describe something resembling the futuristic science fiction robot they’ve seen in movies and television shows. However, according to Mathematician, Linguist and Artificial Intelligence Researcher Dr. András Kornai, artificial intelligence is a reality right now, and its impact can be seen every day.

“I’d say 35 percent of the total commerce taking place on Wall Street (right now) is driven by algorithms and it’s no longer driven by humans,” Kornai said. “This is not science fiction. (Artificial intelligence) is with us today.”

What we’ve seen so far in the application of algorithm-based artificial intelligence in the financial sector is just the tip of the iceberg, Kornai said. In fact, you don’t even have to own stock to be affected by it.

“I have designed algorithms that will (determine) your creditworthiness, meaning your creditworthiness is now determined by an algorithm,” he said. “We have substituted human-decision making capabilities in favor of better algorithms to pursue this, and we have given up a huge area of human competence, and money is just one aspect of it.”

Kornai points to advances in algorithm-based medical diagnostics, autonomous cars and military technology as some other areas where artificial intelligence is already at work and poised for further growth. While that growth is presented as a good thing, he believes the subtle infiltration of AI has many people missing the larger picture.

“We are seeing an uptick in medical decisions by algorithms and I’m not opposed to this, as it’s important to have the best possible information in the medical world. And in 10 or 15 years autonomous vehicles will be a big deal,” Kornai said. “In military technology, drones are generally human controlled, but there is intense research toward autonomous ground or air vehicles that will work even if someone is trying to cut off their communication. This is not the future, this is here now.”

According to Kornai, since algorithms are based on statistics, the problem with algorithm-based advances in those areas is the level of error that is inherent to the system. That built-in error may not be able to cause bodily harm, he said, but it can still cause havoc to humanity as a whole.

“A certain amount of error is built into the system in every level of AI. Things work on a statistical basis and they have errors but, on the whole, that’s innocent,” he said. “Algorithms are not capable of hurting people directly. But once it comes to money or it comes to your health or your legal standing, (the potential for errors) is becoming increasingly serious.”

In spite of most people’s image of the future of artificial intelligence, that danger is significantly different than the perils depicted on the big screen, Kornai said. To illustrate that point, he highlighted the gap between algorithmic AI and the state of robotics. While technology has already developed a chess algorithm that can beat the best chess players in the world, a ping-pong playing robot that can beat the world’s best table tennis player has yet to materialize.

“The primary worry is everyday, ubiquitous algorithms, the kind of algorithms that are already around us, posing huge damage,” Kornai said. “This isn’t the Terminator coming along and killing humans. That’s more science fictional.”

Looking to the future, Kornai sees AI making the biggest inroads in the business world. Again, he noted that use of those everyday algorithms may not be widely noticed, but their impact will be significant.

“In the business world today, it’s much easier to start a company and those companies will increasingly be driven by AI,” he said. “Eventually, AI will play a bigger role in the boardroom. It may not be visible to the man on the street, but it will be very visible to the Fortune 500.”

That said, however, there are still broader risks ahead as AI advances, and Kornai said he generally agrees with the concerns that have been voiced of late by Hawking, Gates, Musk and others. Those perils might not jibe with Hollywood’s idea of them, but the effects will still be notable.

“These guys see what’s going on and are doing some far-sighted (thinking). Far-sighted is not science fictional,” Kornai said. “Far-sighted is thinking ahead maybe 10, 15 or 25 years ahead. We’re not talking about affecting our grandchildren, but things that will affect us and increasingly affect our children and grandchildren.”

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“The nature of work, employment, jobs, and economics will have to change over the next 35 years, or the world will face massive unemployment by 2050. This was a key conclusion of the Future Work/Technology 2050 study published in the “2015−16 State of the Future.””

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These days, it’s not hard to find someone predicting that robots will take over the world and that automation could one day render human workers obsolete. The real debate is over whether or not the benefits do or do not outweigh the risks. Automation Expert and Author Dr. Daniel Berleant is one person who is more often on the side of automation.

There are many industries that are poised to be affected by the oncoming automation boom (in fact, it’s a challenge to think of one arena that will not in some minimal way be affected). “The government is actually putting quite a bit of money into robotic research for what they call ‘cooperative robotics,’” Berleant said. “Currently, you can’t work near a typical industrial robot without putting yourself in danger. As the research goes forward, the idea is (to develop) robots that become able to work with people rather than putting them in danger.”

While many view industrial robotic development as a menace to humanity, Berleant tends to focus on the areas where automation can be a benefit to society. “The civilized world is getting older and there are going to be more old people,” he said. “The thing I see happening in the next 10 or 20 years is robotic assistance to the elderly. They’re going to need help, and we can help them live vigorous lives and robotics can be a part of that.”

Berleant also believes that food production, particularly in agriculture, could benefit tremendously from automation. And that, he says, could have a positive effect on humanity on a global scale. “I think, as soon as we get robots that can take care of plants and produce food autonomously, that will really be a liberating moment for the human race,” Berleant said. “Ten years might be a little soon (for that to happen), maybe 20 years. There’s not much more than food that you need to survive and that might be a liberating moment for many poor countries.”

Berleant also cites the automation that’s present in cars, such as anti-lock brakes, self-parking ability and the nascent self-driving car industry, as just the tip of the iceberg for the future of automobiles. “We’ve got the technology now. Once that hits, and it will probably be in the next 10 years, we’ll definitely see an increase in the autonomous capabilities of these cars,” he said. “The gradual increase in intelligence in the cars is going to keep increasing and my hope is that fully autonomous cars will be commonplace within 10 years.”

Berleant says he can envision a time when the availability of fleets of on-demand, self-driving cars reduces the need for automobile ownership. Yet he’s also aware of the potential effects of that reduced car demand on the automobile manufacturing industry; however, he views the negative effect created by an increase in self-driving cars as outweighed by the potential time-saving benefits and potential improvements in safety.

“There is so much release of human potential that could occur if you don’t have to be behind the wheel for the 45 minutes or hour a day it takes people to commute,” Berleant said. “I think that would be a big benefit to society!”

His view of the potential upsides of automation doesn’t mean that Berleant is blind to the perils. The risks of greater productivity from automation, he believes, also carry plenty of weight. “Advances in software will make human workers more productive and powerful. The flipside of that is when they actually improve the productivity to the point that fewer people need to be employed,” he said. “That’s where the government would have to decide what to do about all these people that aren’t working.”

Cautious must also be taken in military AI and automation, where we have already made major progress. “The biggest jump I’ve seen (in the last 10 years) is robotic weaponry. I think military applications will continue to increase,” Berleant said. “Drones are really not that intelligent right now, but they’re very effective and any intelligence we can add to them will make them more effective.”

As we move forward into a future increasingly driven by automation, it would seem wise to invest in technologies that provide more benefits to society i.e. increased wealth, individual potential, and access to the basic necessities, and to slowly and cautiously (or not at all) develop those automated technologies that pose the greatest threat for large swaths of humanity. Berleant and other like-minded researchers seem to be calling for progressive common sense over a desire to simply prove that any automation (autonomous weapons being the current hot controversy) can be achieved.


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“Solve is a cross-disciplinary program led by MIT to convene the people and organizations that are addressing the world’s most pressing challenges in healthcare, energy, the environment, education, food & water, civil infrastructure and the economy.”

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Suggests a mechanism to be adopted for any
cryptocurrency that would alter the fee layer to
help fund a new public good.

From ABIS concept

In 2013, following a period of reflection and visioning, I imagined the possibility of completely altering the financial system as we know it. This vision, known as ABIS, will now see its first-ever implementation.

The implementation is now being issued in BCN’s GUI Wallet with the release of v. 1.0.8, where the transaction has been re-envisioned to allow the user new ways to explore the possibilities of transactions and realize greater giving potential, initially through two use cases involving unique forms of donations:

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  1. Random donations — a percent of the sum depending on the available outputs. The user will be able to select the approximate desired amount for donation: from 0.1% to 10%. If there is a change input close enough to the target, it will be used as a donation.
  2. Donation mining — the user who is mining in pools from the GUI Wallet will be be able to specify donation address and percentage of donation mining shares (0–100%) that will be contributed for any donation.

This wallet is now available for anyone around the world to utilize and can aid those seeking to facilitate voluntary donation processes, and it is possible that more use cases for further microgiving possibilities may be added to the graphical wallet in the future.

Social Dimensions and Notions of the Transaction Have Limited Wallet Design Universally.

Most wallet software is designed with certain assumptions about what transactions are. If most in society have developed an assumption about what a transaction is, the manifestation of what our cryptocurrency wallets become (and the format in which the graphical user interfaces are developed to facilitate transactions) will tend to follow such a trend.

If a transaction (in which one sends, or transfers resources) remains limited notionally only as an exchange of currency for goods, services, or other currency, there is a problem in terms of the capacity which we are allowing ourselves to develop and enjoy from decentralized systems.

Certainly, this problem has not solely been in Bytecoin (BCN) but can be seen in any other cryptocurrency wallets as well, and of course, in all currency systems. Legacy systems — those which utilize fiat currencies and rely heavily upon central banks — simply do not have the flexibility to transmit very small amounts efficiently. Cryptocurrency systems are better poised to handle small amounts, but how they handle them will differ depending on the type of cryptocurrency being utilized.

Up to this point, some technical challenges exist which have kept cryptocurrency and wallet developers from tackling the issue, as mentioned in the BCN developer’s blog post, ‘Future of Slacktivism: How 1,000,000 Likes Can Save Lives’. Thus, cryptocurrency wallets do not yet emulate natural giving systems to the degree that they could.

The problem is that, around the globe, we have not yet re-envisioned the transaction to allow the user new ways to explore a transaction’s full potential and offer the option of greater giving potential. However, we now have the means to do so.

The initiative taken by the Bytecoin community to address this issue has resulted in software that is arguably the first of its kind ~ resistant to financial censorship (utilizing BCN’s installable desktop graphic wallet, which has anonymity preferences for transactions which the user can alter on a sliding scale ranging from greater to lesser anonymity), and now, allowing compassionate options for any user, which allow small donations to be sent and received anywhere in the world without any need for an intermediary.

Because the entire concept is fully voluntary there are really a nearly infinite range of choices, essentially limited only by the technology, fees, and network limitations. The user is contemplating who to provide a micro-donation to and at what level and at what threshold the microdonation(s) will be broadcast, based on their wallet settings.

And I hope that we would in this model of giving become more like the bees that share pollen as they bounce from flower to flower (indeed, the acronym of the concept, ABIS, stands for “Ants, Bees, Information, and Systems”).

An interesting commentary from recent events comes from the transcript of Pope Francis’s remarks to US Congress on Sept. 24, 2015:

‘We have the freedom needed to limit and direct technology’; ‘to devise intelligent ways of… developing and limiting our power’; and to put technology ‘at the service of another type of progress, one which is healthier, more human, more social, more integral’

We have the tools now at our disposal, and these tools are vital to have, but even more vital is having compassion and the desire to extend what we have to others, and to build systems in ways which do not rely upon coercion, violence, and the perils of institutional power.

ABISprotocol
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Money is the primary mechanism for storing and exchanging value, especially in our daily purchases, and it’s heading rapidly into a faster, smarter and more mobile future. Nevertheless, the constant in the midst of change will remain levels of human trust in the proliferating forms of money. That’s because we have an ancient and abiding partnership with money and no relationship is ever sustainable without trust.

It’s a time of accelerated innovation in this field due to the rapid global expansion of digital banking, especially online and mobile financial services. However, while payments and transfer of money shift inexorably towards mobile devices as the consumer technology of choice, digital currencies expand in scope and number and online shopping begins to enter a golden age, cash is still the most successful and popular form of money ever. Its trust level, as public money backed up by a promise to pay from the government which minted and manufactured it, remains extremely high. This is evidenced by the way the Greeks turned to cash during their fiscal and monetary crisis which rocked the whole European Union, as well as by cash’s current 8.9% per annum average global growth rate. Cash is undoubtedly one of the most successful social technologies in history.

In short, the future of money will be mobile, faster in execution and settlement, and yet as heavily dependent on trust as ever. In my view, for that very reason, there’s unlikely to be a cashless world in this century. Nor is such a scenario desirable, unless you’re a fan of a Big Brother society largely dominated and dictated by multinationals more powerful than many national governments. A cashless world would subvert the economic freedom of citizens to choose the form of money and payment they want and, if that weren’t bad enough, it would lead inevitably to even further marginalisation of the world’s poor. Besides, cash is already universally trusted, instant in execution and mobile in nature (that is, just as portable as a smart phone).

That said, digital banking is here to stay and provides massive levels of convenience and efficiency. Financial institutions the world over are fiercely focused on developing omnichannel (“every channel”) strategies to provide seamless customer experiences across all their banking channels.

In addition, a great “money race” is now on to dominate the world’s vast payment markets between the global card brands, the banks, the technology providers (such as Apple and Samsung), the Internet giants (e.g. Google. Amazon, PayPal), the social media giants (including Facebook, WeChat and Twitter) and, of course, the major retailers.

Having sketched a broad context for understanding what’s happening in the world of money and payments, here are ten megatrends to consider. This will be followed by six additional movers and shakers to watch in the coming months and years.

Megatrend #1: The smart world is coming

The smart world of smart consumers, some wearing smart technologies like the Apple Watch, smart devices and smart homes, is on its way. This will take place within the Internet of Things (IoT ). Gartner forecasts that the 3.9 billion smart devices connected to Internet at the end of 2014 will increase to about 25 billion by 2020. A key device in the smart world is likely to be the phablet. It should become the dominant mobile device. The number of phablets is expected to increase from 27 million in 2012 to around 230 million by the end of 2015. Business Insider, for example, predicts phablets will outsell smartphones by 2017. Money will gain multiple new forms as it adapts to this new smart world. Old and new forms of money will co-exist, resulting in much greater choice and convenience for consumers.

Megatrend #2: e-commerce is rising, along with digital shopping

Fortune Magazine recently rated the Bank of Internet, an online bank, as the 56th fastest growing company in the world. Online buying is growing exponentially across the globe. For example, WWW Metrics (http://www.wwwmetrics.com) expects Australians to spend $10 billion more online in the next five years than they do currently. The ease and convenience of online shopping cannot be disputed. Although it will never completely replace high-street shopping or lead to the rise of ghostly and abandoned shopping malls, it will probably enjoy good year-on-year growth for a long period to come. This megatrend will increase the importance of digital money.

Megatrend #3: There is a shift to mobile internet and mobile commerce

Today, mobile devices outsell PCs and laptops in a game-changing shift to mobile-based internet. It is therefore not surprising that mobile shopping is growing at 4 x the rate of online shopping. For example, Finextra has reported that 37% of e-commerce originates from a tablet or smart phone. Global mobile purchases are expected to rise from $150bn in 2014 to $214bn in 2015. Mobile money is going to be a big part of the future.

Megatrend #4: Debit card use is on the rise

The rise of mobile commerce does not mean the demise of cards. Retail Banking Research (RBR) have reported that there are now 12 billion payments cards in the world, which were used last year to make 235 billion payments, totalling $20 trillion. The debit card is the king of these cards, representing 68% of the global card market. This share is expected to rise to 72% by 2020. By contrast, credit card share is predicted to decline from 23% to 20% by 2020. Prepaid cards, at the bottom of the scale, have a mere 5% of the market. It is clear that card payments will dwarf mobile payments for the foreseeable future. It will be a long time indeed before mobile payments get close to card payments and cash payments. Nevertheless, the future is very bright for mobile money.

Megatrend #5: In-store NFC payments are being outstripped by mobile commerce in the mobile payments space

Near Field Communication (NFC) based payments – often called “tap and go” or “wave and pay” — have a slow adoption rate but should pick up a head of steam within the next five to ten years. They’re unlikely to grow at the brisk rate at which mobile commerce is growing. Deloitte estimates that only 7% of smartphone users use mPay at POS (Point-of-Sale). By 2018, in-store NFC payments are forecast to reach only about 4.5% of card volume. For the near future, NFC won’t be used much by customers in retail stores with high Average Order Values, but more at coffee shops and fast food chains with lower Average Order Values. Nevertheless, by 2020 there could be 2.2 billion NFC enabled phones and there is a good chance NFC may become a dominant technology as a result of global EMV compliance, with Visa and MasterCard building NFC into the migration path.

Megatrend #6: The omnichannel, customer-centric world has arrived

What Steve Jobs did so well was to introduce the “zen” feel of consumer technology after decades of boring, inert computer hardware and software. Now, there’s no turning back. All channels must be intuitive, all channels must complement one another, there simply must be a seamless omnichannel experience. This is the key to retention of the digital customer. This means money will become more zen-like, especially in an era when Customer Owned Devices (CoDs) have given the connected consumer more power, compared to more static self-service banking through traditional ATMs. Self-service terminals gave the customer access to banking services after hours 24 x 7 but they are banked-owned devices. Now consumers do their banking on their own technology. They demand a personal, smooth, convenient level of service purged of any old-fashioned “clunky” technology experiences. Money cannot afford to look and feel old-fashioned. Thanks, Steve. (By the way, polymer banknotes used in Canada, Australia and being introduced into Britain from next year, may well be the new look of cash, given the increased longevity and security they provide for notes.)

Megatrend #7: The bank branch is being reconfigured

In this increasingly digital world, in which non-banks can provide money and financial services, banks need to resist disintermediation from these new players by redefining the relationship to their customers. I’ve already indicated that the smart banking experience is going to be paramount. Accordingly, banks are redesigning their branches, to provide a balance of digital and traditional services, employing customer-facing technology. Assisted self-service, including remote video banking and in-person assistance, is proving very popular in this new world. At the same time, respect is being shown for the role of Customer Owned Devices and the kind of experience they offer to customers. Banks are saving costs and improving efficiency through increased automation, especially deposit automation. Self-service automation now accounts for 2/3rds of branch transformation technology, according to RBR. The costs of cash are being pushed down through cash deposit acceptance and through recycling ATMs, which are enjoying phenomenal growth in China, for example. RBR states that automated deposit and recycling ATMs make up 40% of global shipments in our industry. The bank branch of the future must be highly automated, smart, offering both in-person teller assistance and video banking.

Megatrend #8: The ATM is evolving into an indispensable value-adding 24×7 customer touchpoint

As CEO of the ATM Industry Association since 2005, I can attest that there is no global movement away from the ATM. ATM shipments have been growing y-o-y since 2010 following the global economic crisis of 2008–9. In fact, the ATM is central to both branch transformation and the omnichannel approaches. It is a highly trusted customer touchpoint found in great locations. I foresee deployers focusing more and more on valued-added services at the ATM, from ticketing to bill payments, while deposit automation and recycling ATMs will continue to reduce the costs of cash on a global scale (cash handling can account for 30–40% of the total cost of operating a large ATM estate). Besides, ATMs are main distribution channel for cash (for example, in the UK 72% of cash is acquired through cash machines) and cash demand is growing (see Megatrend #9 below).

Megatrend #9: Global cash demand is rising at 3 x the rate of economic growth

In an ATM Industry Association study of growth in currency in circulation in thirty countries, representative of advanced and developing economies, over a five year period from 2009–2013, it was found that global cash demand is growing at an average of 8.9% p.a. This is 3 x the rate of global GDP during this time. The study was based on central bank statistics in these thirty countries in annual reports. This figure accords with a prediction by the leading retail banking research house, RBR, that annual cash withdrawal volumes will grow by 7.9% between 2013–2019. In the BRICS countries, which contribute 20% of world GDP with 40% of its population, currency grew y-o-y in this period at 11%, compared to 4.5% in the Eurosystem. If you want to get a feel for cash production in the world’s number one economy, check this out: in the USA, 6.2 billion banknotes were printed in 2014, about 24.8 million per day!

As mentioned earlier, recent turmoil in Greece pushed up demand for cash. For example, in May, 2015, €45 billion in banknotes was in circulation, which equates to just over €4,000 per citizen.

For years now, I have noticed a widening gap between fact and perception regarding cash. Despite being under threat from some governments and other agencies seeking to create a cashless society, as well as a largely hostile media, cash is holding its own as a dominant payment method in the brave new world of digital banking and shopping

Megatrend #10: Remittances and financial inclusion are growing in importance

Today, there are still 2 billion unbanked people. 38% of adults do not have access to basic financial services. That is why financial inclusion is going to be so important a tool for addressing the growing wealth gap between haves and have-nots, which is neither sustainable nor just. However, there is hope: mobile money! While 28% of US households are either unbanked or underbanked, mobile penetration is at 90% of households. Just look at how mobile phones transformed the landscape in Kenya. The renowned MPesa mobile money transfer and payment system gained 17 million users in just 8 years. Mobile phone owners who had never had a bank account in their lives could suddenly conduct secure, fast and convenient financial transactions.

Tellingly, cash in circulation continued to grow strongly during these years of exponential MPesa growth. Today cash transfers and use of vouchers are set to revolutionise global humanitarian aid as more effective than goods. In a time of migration crises, rising natural disasters and extreme weather events, giving cash and vouchers to people in need, trying to survive in an emergency, is the civilised way to go. Physical aid, hamstrung by tough logistics, seldom empowers those most in need in a timely fashion.

What’s also important to the world’s poor is the ability to send remittances. In 2014, there were $440 billion in recorded remittances. Now big names like PayPal are entering this growing remittance market. Money can mean survival. The world would be a much better place if we could take remittances and money transfers to a new level. That’s money in action.

Now think about the following innovations likely to further change the world of money in the near future.

Movers and Shakers #1: Samsung Pay is likely to become the leader in mobile payments within months of its launch

Samsung Pay is going to blow Apple Pay (sorry, Steve) out of the water and here’s why. It combines NFC and MST (Magnetic Secure Transmission) communication, so it can be used at 30 million merchant locations worldwide. Apple Pay is stuck in the slow-moving NFC space. In addition, Samsung is partnering with a network of big players, including global banks, card brands, PayPal, etc. Samsung Galaxy S6 is seen by many technology gurus as the world’s leading smartphone. Finally, the new payment app will be linked to smart TV through a partnership with PayPal to enable payments on the TV platform, using a secure virtual keypad, in thirty-two countries.

Sadly, Apple Pay has a high drop-out rate with 48% of 1st time users not using it again (source: Tremont Capital). While I see the Apple Watch making a major statement and becoming a status symbol among young smart consumers, Apple Pay is probably doomed to play second fiddle to Samsung Pay.

Movers and Shakers #2: PayPal is moving into retail stores and remittances

PayPal, which has 130m online accounts, has agreed to buy online money-transfer company Xoom Corp.for $890m. Xoom’s online service lets users send money internationally, often via mobile phone, charging $5-$10, as well as pocketing the difference in the exchange rates; the service may also be used to pay bills. At the same time, PayPal is also partnering with Discover Financial Services to enable PayPal payments at retail stores. Is PayPal going to become the world’s biggest “bank” of the digital age?

Movers and Shakers #3: Zapp is likely to become a successful domestic mobile payment solution in the UK

Zapp in the UK, introduced by VocaLink, which is part of LINK, the powerful national ATM network, is one to watch. The system will use NFC, which is widely deployed in the country, but will works on the ACH system, which means it will exclude interchange while enjoying fast settlement. It is available to 18 million UK account holders and is strongly supported by all the major banks and retailers. Sounds like a winning formula to me. Money, after all, has a strong national identity and dimension. It isn’t as intangible as it may seem, even in the electronic age.

Movers and Shakers #4: Digital currencies and blockchain technology are here to stay

There are now over 500 decentralised digital currencies in existence. Some central banks are even considering issuing a national digital currency as a back-up currency. There is also talk of future digital currencies which could be asset-based, such as linked to gold or property assets. In Greece after its monetary crisis, it was decided to install 1000 Bitcoin ATMs.

What is becoming clear to operators and to regulators is that the blockchain technology behind bitcoin, which is incredibly robust, has other potential applications, for example, programmable money and currency exchange. Expect to see digital currencies and blockchain technology revolutionise the nature and uses of money.

Movers and Shakers #5: Social media giants are expanding their role in the payments space

Facebook purchased What’s App, with its 500m subscribers for $22bn to add to its own users — 1.19 billion monthly active users, 874 million mobile users, and 728 million daily users. That’s a huge move and it has implications for the future of money. Users can now send or receive money in Facebook Messenger after adding a debit card to the Facebook account. Then you can open a chat with the friend you want to send money to, enter the amount you want to send, click next to your debit card and then click Pay.

Meanwhile, WeChat, with 600m active users, has a mobile payments app for customers to buy in-app items or services. It works for both in-store payments (where retailers will likely scan a QR code generated by your order inside WeChat) or for purely online purchases that’ll be delivered later.

Social media will completely change the face (excuse the pun) of money. They will make it more personal and intimate.

Movers and Shakers #6: Current C is a model of a mobile payment app from a retail consortium

Finally, don’t write off the major retailers. They, too, want a piece of the payments action. Merchant Customer Exchange (MCX) is a company created by a consortium of U.S. retail companies, including Walmart and 7-Eleven, with $1 trillion in annual sales. The consortium has developed a merchant-owned mobile payment system which works through a digital wallet and a smartphone app. To make a purchase, the user scans a QR code shown on the cashier’s screen, or has the cashier scan a QR code from the phone’s screen. The payment settles on the ACH system for speed and efficiency.

These 10 megatrends and 6 movers and shakers together sketch the picture of a battle of the titans for control of the ever-expanding global payments market as it gets transformed by the new digital options opening up for billions of increasingly connected consumers. When the dust settles, only the strongest, most trusted forms of money will still be standing.

Michael Lee’s second book on the future, Codebreaking our Future – deciphering the future’s hidden order, was published in 2014 (http://www.amazon.com/Codebreaking-our-future-Deciphering-futures/dp/1908984260). He is also author of a trilogy of science faction novels available on Amazon, Voyage of the Moon Dream, Heartbeat and Rocket Ride of the Secret Cosmonaut (http://www.amazon.com/Science-Faction-Trilogy-Cosmonaut-Heartbeat-ebook/dp/B00T31U4U8/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1443180236&sr=8-2&keywords=voyage+of+the+moon+dream)

Do you dream of pursuing your passion, but find yourself hindered by a daily work schedule? That might not be a problem in the future, at least not in the future envisioned by Google’s Larry Page, where humans are required to work less while having their needs met.

In a Fireside chat with Vinod Khosla, both Google founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin talked a lot about Google and the world surrounding it, with the entire chat (featured in the video below) lasting a bit over 40 minutes. Among the different topics was discussion about our working future.

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At the end of 2015, the US national debt will be 18.6 trillion dollars. With such a big number, it’s tempting to put it in perspective by comparing it with things more easily envisioned. 98e2c31e5c194d21be9fd3922dc45fde9207f454Alas, I can not think of anything that puts such an oppressive and unfair burden into perspective, except to this:

US debt represents a personal obligation of $60,000 for each American citizen. And it is rising quickly. Most of our GDP is used simply to pay down interest on that debt. Few pundits see a way out of this hole.

bretton_woods-aIn my opinion, that hole was facilitated in August 1971, when the US modified the Bretton Woods Agreement and unilaterally terminated convertibility of the US dollar to gold. By forcibly swapping every dollar in every pocket and bank account with the promise of transient legislators, individual wealth was suddenly based on fiat instead of something tangible or intrinsic.

Feds Meet: No interest rate hike

The benchmark interest rate set by the US Federal Reserve Board is currently between 0 and 0.25%. It has been at or near zero since 2006.

By now, Lifeboat readers know that 20 hours ago, the US Federal Reserve board decided to not hike the benchmark interest rate. The Fed did, however, signal that they still intend to raise interest rates at a future meeting—perhaps in October or December.

The announcement came just after US equity markets closed. But, in what has become a most odd news coverage of a non-event, the immediate reaction was to lift the Asian stock markets, which were still open during the announcement.

I am a frequent contributor to Quora. I field many questions on economics, politics, law, and even physics. You might be inclined to check out my credentials as pundit of macro-economics. Don’t bother…There are none! I am an armchair economist (this is the same as saying: “I am not an economist”). But I certainly follow these things closely, and have an informed opinion.

Today, I was asked this:
What would happen if the fed had raised interest rates?

The question asked specifically about the effect on other interest rates, but a more interesting exercise might be to speculate on the state of the economy. Here then, is a comon-sense response…

If we could freeze all other conditions and avoid the effects of public confidence, likely change in debt, debt rating, etc… If we ignore these things, then the direct result of raising the interest rate for a given national currency is to attract outside money. That is, we would see an increase in foreign conversion into dollars and a movement of US assets from stocks and bonds into currency or currency equivalents. This is a simple result of the higher payout that one would expect after a raise in interest rates.

In theory, the sift of international assets and investment into dollars does four things:

  • It strengthens the value of the dollar, thereby increasing the take-home potential of US workers and the number of things US residence buy from overseas (because a slightly higher fraction of organizations seek dollars)
  • It increases income for anyone tied to published interest rates, such as many senior citizens.
  • It increases interest payments from anyone tied to published interest rates. For anyone deeply in debt on instruments such as credit cards or home equity, this can have a devastating impact—causing minimum payments to rise by many times the interest rate hike.
  • It increases US national debt, because so much of the economy is built on forward loans in the form of Treasury notes. With an interest rate increase, the US must pay more on both new debt and the financing of massive outstanding debts.

This is all theoretical, of course. In practice, one of the first effects is for individuals and institutions to wonder: “How can the US possibly pay out on debt at an increased rate?”. [possible answer]*

One very obvious effect is that many individuals will further lose confidence in the American economy or the will of American’s to honor the national debt. Because of this, the effect of raising the interest rate (for the first time in 9 years) is not easy to predict. Despite massive uptake on US debt, the Chinese and energy producing nations have limits to what they can believe. A subtle switch in their investment activity (or the determination to move away from a dollar-based reserve) will have massive repercussions, especially for the US.

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* Some pundits argue that US debt and payments can continue to grow, because the ability to accommodate these things are protected by these things:

  • a recovering economy
  • increased activity from the new investors
  • need for producer nations to seize on a massive consumer market
  • need for producer nations to invest their gains

But, a growing number of economists, investors, analysts, credit bureaus, and citizens don’t buy this argument! They point out that it kicks-the-can down the road and foists untenable debt on future generations. They would prefer that the US reign in spending and pay down debt.

In this regard, being the world’s reserve currency has helped hook the US on debt, and it has ballooned out of control. Transitioning to a firmly capped currency that is not controlled by legislation or a reserve board would help the country avoid massive debts (those that exceed the willingness of bond holders to finance) and to do what it must do.

In my take, the real question is not “What if the Fed has raised interest rates?” The real question is:

Does the U.S. have the courage to link its currency to something durable
— and beyond control of transient political winds and a debt pyramid?”

Sure, we must still honor the excess of the past 40 years. But with gold, or Bitcoin, at least we will have solid underpinnings and incentives to spend within our means.

Philip Raymond is a member the New Money Systems Board
at Lifeboat. He is Co-chair of Cryptocurrency Standards
Association and editor at A Wild Duck.

This short post is not about Bitcoin. It’s about a new method of organizing and arbitrating communications that is at the heart of Bitcoin

We hear a lot about the blockchain. We also hear a lot of misconceptions about its purpose and benefits. Some have said that it represents a threat to banks or to governments. Nonsense! It is time to form a simple, non-political, and non-economic explanation…

What is a Blockchain?

The blockchain is a distributed approach to bookkeeping. It offers an empowering, efficient and trusted way for disparate parties to reach consensus. It is “empowering”, because conclusions built on a blockchain can be constructed in a way that is inherently fair, transparent, and resistant to manipulation.

This is why blockchain-backed systems are generating excitement. Implemented as distributed and permissionless, they take uncertainty out of accounting, voting, legislation or research, and replace it with trust and security. Benefits are bestowed without the need for central authority or arbitration. The blockchain not only solves a fundamental transaction challenge, it addresses communication and arbitration problems that have bedeviled thinkers since the ancient Egyptians.

Related:

—Philip Raymond, CRYPSA Co-chair
Cryptocurrency Standards Association