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By — Gizmag

Research conducted at the East Tennessee Sate University suggests that brain-computer inte...

By enabling users to communicate and control devices with their thoughts, brain-computer interfaces (BCI) hold almost a scary amount of potential. While they have achieved feats such as directing the flight of a quadcopter and helping victims of paralysis to communicate, sufferers of brainstem stroke with “locked-in” syndrome have so far been beyond reach. But now, a researcher at East Tennessee Sate University (ETSU) has demonstrated BCIs may in fact give brainstem stroke patients a voice again, with very specific brainwaves serving as a typing finger for a virtual keyboard.

“We have significant research showing that BCI is beneficial to ALS patients [amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, a neurodegenerative disorder that results in muscle wasting],” says Dr Eric Sellers, associate professor of Psychology at ETSU and leader of the study. “But until now there were no studies that looked specifically at patients with a brainstem stroke to see if it worked for them as well.”

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FUTURISM UPDATE (December 25, 2014) — Mr. Andres Agostini, Amazon, LinkedIn

0 wall FOR LBF VERY TOP

WHITE SWAN BOOK: NASA Is 3-D Printing Tools In Space Like Crazy http://www.popsci.com/3-d-printed-tools-space

WHITE SWAN BOOK: Mathematicians Make a Major Discovery About Prime Numbers http://www.wired.com/2014/12/mathematicians-make-major-discovery-prime-numbers/

BBC NEWS: China’s Alibaba spent $160m fighting fake goods https://lnkd.in/eKuwCg2

THE MOSCOW TIMES: Russia to Help Firms Refinance Massive Foreign Loans as Sanctions Take Toll https://lnkd.in/e6C3BBg

CORRECTLY FORESEEING? at https://lnkd.in/e2_8KMz

REUTERS: Russia says NATO turning Ukraine into ‘frontline of confrontation’ https://lnkd.in/eRYRhHV

DW: Japanese scientist Obokata fails to recreate ‘provocative’ STAP stem cells and resigns https://lnkd.in/eDjPcwK

WHITE SWAN BOOK: The Taiwan Navy Just Unveiled A Stealth Missile Warship Dubbed The ‘Carrier-Killer’ http://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-navy-stealth-missile-warship-corvette-2014-12#ixzz3MrZmjlyo

BY MR. ANDRES AGOSTINI

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

http://www.LINKEDIN.com/in/andresagostini

http://www.AMAZON.com/author/agostini

http://www.appearoo.com/aagostini

Luke Thu — conversations.nokia.com

Like many young stargazers, James Parr was ten years old when he first had fantasies of going to space.

Thirty years later, the stars have aligned and James is finally realizing his dream. But not as you’d imagine. Working with Microsoft and the biggest names in space exploration, James has created the first ever 3D-printed automated robotic observatory.

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Imagine there existed a proof that the most reluctantly accepted feature of Einstein’s gravitation theory – that c is no longer a global but only a local constant – was unnecessary: Would that not be wonderful?

The proof was greeted with planet-wide neglect: c-global exists in the Schwarzschild metric of general relativity since 2008 and so in the more fundamental equivalence principle since 2012. It hence also holds true for the full Einstein equation – only the pertinent transform has yet be written down to enable direct unification with quantum mechanics: a holy grail.

Hence most everyone is bound to be working on this in physics? The answer is no given the embarrassment of riches that is implicit. This professional modesty is a sympathetic human trait when you look at it in a detached mood. However, the result in question has also an applied side to it. In light of the latter, a prestigious collective activity has ceased to be safe.

Such collisions of interest do usually sort themselves out spontaneously with time. Here, bad luck for once wills that the unsafe collective activity – the re-ignition of a Nobel-decorated experiment at twice its former world-record energy – has been scheduled to start in only ten weeks’ time.

Since many thousand scientists are involved, it is difficult to launch the requisite public debate within the few weeks that are left: This is an ocean-liner, not a boat. And: should the public be involved in the learned discussion about the difference between a globally constant speed of light c and a merely everywhere locally constant speed c ? I must be kidding!

But there is one point every child can ask and understand: “Does there exist a public Safety Report for the experiment in question (the “LHC” experiment at CERN)?” The answer is: “yes but”: Such an official report exists (LSAG) but it stems from early 2008 – before the safety-relevant new result was published.

This fact is known to the scientific community and to the media, but is being treated as a taboo topic. Europe – with Germany in the leading role payment-wise – thrives on the world-wide public credit granted: “They would not go ahead if they were not convinced it is safe.”

In the case of the Eniwetak catastrophe, a timely Safety Report would have been the rescue. This time around, the risk is infinitely higher due to the black-hole danger implicit in c-global.

We obviously need a public arbitration process in order to save time. There is one world-renowned public hero who has a vested interest in the LHC experiment getting started at twice world-record energy on schedule: Stephen Hawking.

I offer the world a public debate with my famous younger colleague as a substitute for the lacking safety report – to enable the experiment to proceed on time if he wins the debate.

I predict that Stephen Hawking will accept the offer as a bet because he is a sportsman. And because his courage spares CERN the trouble of having to renew its safety report in the short time span left before the scheduled start. A positive response will be a Christmas present to all.

EXTREMELY-PREEMPTIVE LUCID FORESEEING!

0000

Let us stop the universal guesswork to make decisions by ignoramuses of supine ignorance, beginning with the elitist “…intellectuals…”, specially those postdoctorals from the Ivy-league and Oxbridge.

You do not make (throughput to output) decisions to be instituted in the past, but in the Continual Present, whose Continuum is hugely connected to the Future.

Through this article, in a subtle and even in a forceful and dramatic way, you will notice, if you pay careful attention, how the DOTS are connected in amazing ways. Here, to an ultimate degree, the ensuing Maxim is extremely observed: “… everything is related to everything else …”

ALL CONTAINED HERE IS A VERY BRIEF LITERAL EXCERPT OF ANDRES AGOSTINI’S WHITE SWAN BOOK:

LET US GET STARTED:

The American Heritage Dictionary’s Introduction (fourth edition, 2000) by Joseph P. Pickett, Executive Director, literally indicates, to further illustrate the reader, [54]:

“…This Fourth Edition of The American Heritage Dictionary combines the best of traditional making with key innovations that afford new ways of looking at our language… This edition has nearly 10,000 new words and senses that reflect the rapid pace of change in the English language today. Technological innovations in computing and communications along with advances in the sciences have been especially rich sources of development in the lexicon (for example, bit map, domain name, and raster in computing; dark matter, photonics, and yoctosecond in science). Medicine and medical research continue to produce an astonishing array of new terms for chemicals and substances (endostatin, leptin, transfatty acid), for disorders and infectious agents (Asperger’s syndrome, erectile dysfunction, hantavirus), for treatment (cocktail, molecular knife, xenotransplant), and for a variety of creations and discoveries (designer gene, enteric nervous system, microsleep) .… In addition, continuing social change in postindustrial society has given rise to expressions that describe new business practices (buyback, microcredit, reverse mortgage), a changing workplace (face time, job-share, mommy track), and evolving political positions and governmental policies (family leave, term limit, workfare). New sports terms have arisen (clap skate, five hole, skyboard), as have words for new educational practices (charter school, distance learning, homeschool). The names of foods from other cultures continue to be adopted (baba gannouj, garam masala, quesadilla). A host of new cultural developments has produced a host of new compound cords (assisted living, poetry slam, shock jock). And English speakers continue to be an exuberance force in creative coinage (bloviate, newbie, wannabe) .… To ensure accuracy in the coverage of our rapidly changing vocabulary, we have worked closely with distinguished consultants in a wide variety of specialized fields, including anthropology, astronomy, genetics, immunology, philosophy, and physics, to name but a few. We have also gone to great lengths to make our biological and geographic entries as timely as possible. Many new biographical entries have been added, especially in the areas of sports, music, film-making, and literature. To the geographic entries we have added new country names, such as Myanmar and the Republic of Congo, and newly prominent places such as Kosovo …”

AND ALSO FOR INSTANCE:

WHAT DO LUMINARIES SAY OF UTILITY HAVE TO SAY HERE?

ALSO #1 of #24:

Napoleon Bonaparte, to this end, asserted,

“…I have only one counsel for you — be master [.…] No longer it is question simply of education, NOW IT BECOMES A MATTER OF ACQUIRING [HARD] SCIENCE …” Brackets are of the author.

ALSO #2 of #24:

Dr. Carl Sagan, PhD. wrote,

“…We live in a society exquisitely dependent on science and technology, in which hardly anyone knows about science and technology…”

ALSO #3 of #24:

Prof. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, PhD.,

“… We live in a high-tech age with archaic guesswork guiding life and death decisions …”

ALSO #4 of #24:

Harvard Business School professor Clay Christensen, Ph.D. indicated,

“… Change is hard, failure is much harder, and would you rather be sick or would you rather be dead?…”

ALSO #5 of #24:

In a June 2012 feature, Jeff Bezos told the Wall Street Journal:

“ … We humans have become so technologically sophisticated that in certain ways we’re dangerous to ourselves. It’s going to be increasingly important over time for humanity to take a longer-term view of its future …”

ALSO #6 of #24:

Jacob Bronowski advised,

“ … We are a scientific civilization .… that means a civilization in which knowledge and its integrity are crucial. Science is only a Latin word for [organized] knowledge .… knowledge is our destiny …”

OTHER STUPIDS, DO THEY NOT UNDERSTAND THIS?:

(1.-) “.. Science…” is Organized Knowledge.

(2.-) “… Wisdom …” is Organized Life.

ALSO #7 of #24:

Professor Stephen Hawking, Ph.D. warned:

” … Mankind must colonize other planets to survive [….] THE LONG-TERM SURVIVAL OF THE HUMAN RACE IS AT RISK AS LONG AS IT IS CONFINED TO A SINGLE PLANET [.…] SOONER OR LATER, DISASTERS SUCH AS AN ASTEROID COLLISION OR NUCLEAR WAR COULD WIPE US ALL OUT. BUT ONCE WE SPREAD OUT INTO SPACE AND ESTABLISH INDEPENDENT COLONIES, OUR FUTURE SHOULD BE SAFE [….] There isn’t anywhere like the Earth in the solar system, so we would have to go to another star […] The primitive forms of artificial intelligence we already have, have proved very useful. But I think the development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race [….] We are pushing the boundaries of what is possible through technology – without it I would not be able to speak to you today …”

ALSO #8 of #24:

FINANCIAL TIMES (December 2, 2014, 6:13 pm) posits, “ … Prof. Stephen Hawking warns on rise of the machines … The astrophysicist Stephen Hawking has warned that artificial intelligence ‘could outsmart us all’ and is calling for humans to establish colonies on other planets to avoid ultimately a ‘near-certainty’ of technological catastrophe … ’ … By contrast, according to Moore’s Law, computers double their speed and memory capacity every 18 months. The risk is that computers develop intelligence and take over. Humans, who are limited by slow biological evolution, couldn’t compete, and would be superseded,’ he said … Both PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel and Elon Musk, the entrepreneur behind the electric car Tesla and SpaceX, the private space flight company, have warned of the dangers of complacency over the consequences of unconstrained advances in artificial intelligence … Google is making a push into ‘…quantum computing …’ and has established an ethics committee to monitor the work of DeepMind, the artificial intelligence start-up it bought for £400m (US$625.84) earlier in the year. Consumers are coming into increasing contact with “smart” machines, including flying drones and prototypes of self-driving cars … A recent paper from researchers at the Oxford Martin School at Oxford university has warned governments to plan for the risk of ‘robo-wars’ in which autonomous weapons can identify and decide to kill targets without human intervention … But he also warned that there was potentially a more destructive element to technology. ’ … We face a number of threats to our survival, from nuclear war, catastrophic global warming, and genetically engineered viruses; the number is likely to increase in the future, with the development of new technologies, and new ways things can go wrong, …’ he said. … ’ … We need to expand our horizons beyond planet Earth if we are to have a long-term future, spreading out into space, and to other stars, so a disaster on Earth would not mean the end of the human race. Establishing self-sustaining colonies will take time and effort, but it will become easier as our technology improves …’ …” FINANCIAL TIMES at https://lnkd.in/eB2Mn8z

ALSO #9 of #24:

Albert Einstein observed,

“ … It has become appallingly obvious that our technology has exceeded our humanity …”

ALSO #10 of #24:

Cambridge University’ Sir Martin Rees, Ph.D. (British Astronomer Royal) noticed,

“ … Science is emphatically not, as some have claimed, approaching its end; it is surging ahead at an accelerating rate. We are still flummoxed about the bedrock nature of physical reality, and the complexities of life, the brain, and the cosmos. New discoveries, illuminating all these mysteries, will engender benign applications; but will also pose NEW ETHICAL DILEMMAS AND BRING NEW HAZARDS …. BUT THERE IS A DARK SIDE: NEW SCIENCE CAN HAVE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES; IT EMPOWERS INDIVIDUALS TO PERPETRATE ACTS OF MEGATERROR; EVEN INNOCENT ERRORS COULD BE CATASTROPHIC. THE ‘DOWNSIDE’ FROM TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY TECHNOLOGY COULD BE GRAVER AND MORE INTRACTABLE THAN THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR DEVASTATION THAT WE HAVE FACED FOR DECADES. AND HUMAN-INDUCED PRESSURES ON THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT MAY ENGENDER HIGHER RISKS THAT THE AGE-OLD HAZARDS OF EARTHQUAKES, ERUPTIONS, AND ASTEROID IMPACTS …”

ALSO #11 of #24:

Charles, Prince of Whales, observed:

“ … The strategic threats posed by global environment and development problems are the most complex, interwoven and potentially devastating of all the challenges to our security. Scientists …. do not fully understand the consequences of our many-faceted assault on the interwoven fabric of atmosphere, water, land and life in all its biological diversity. Things could turn out to be worse than the current scientific best guess. IN MILITARY AFFAIRS, POLICY HAS LONG BEEN BASED ON THE DICTUM THAT WE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE WORST CASE. WHY SHOULD IT BE SO DIFFERENT WHEN THE SECURITY IS THAT OF THE PLANET AND OUR LONG-TERM FUTURE? …” [229]

ALSO #12 of #24:

Prof. Daniel Berleant, Ph.D. observes,

“… Will we destroy ourselves in a matter of years, decades, or centuries, or will we last indefinitely? Many people see our increasing power over nature, coupled with self-destructive tendencies, leading us to destroy ourselves [.…] Perhaps we will transcend both technology-enabled self-destruction and normal evolution …”

ALSO #13 of #24:

And a Sephardi Hebrew, gave me an Arab adage that argues,

“… The one who foretells the future correctly, lies even if he is telling the truth …”

ALSO #14 of #24:

However, as a counterpoint Lockheed Martin argues:

“… What’s impossible today won’t be tomorrow …”

ALSO #15 of #24:

Subsequently, the hugely-ignored Chinese proverb indicates,

“…Don’t look at the waves but the currents underneath…”

ALSO #16 of #24:

Nevertheless, the Panchatantra (body of Eastern philosophical knowledge) establishes,

“… Knowledge is the true organ of sight, not the eyes … ”

ALSO #17 of #24:

And Antonio Machado argues,

“… An eye is not an eye because you see it; an eye is an eye because it sees you …”

ALSO #18 of #24:

Prof. Michio Kaku, Ph.D. indicates,

“… By the end of the twentieth century, science had reached the end of an era, unlocking the secrets of the atom, unraveling the molecule of life, and creating the electronic computer. With these three fundamental discoveries, triggered by the quantum revolution, the DNA revolution, and the computer revolution, the basic laws of matter, life, and computation were, in the main, finally solved .… That epic phase of science is now drawing to a close; one era is ending and another is only beginning .… The next era of science promises to be an even deeper, more thoroughgoing, more penetrating one than the last .… Clearly, we are on the threshold of yet another revolution. HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history. COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS. Almost daily, the headlines herald new advances in computers, telecommunications, biotechnology, and space exploration. In the wake of this technological upheaval, entire industries and lifestyles are being overturned, only to give rise to entirely new ones. But these rapid, bewildering changes are not just quantitative. They mark the birth pangs of a new era .… FROM NOW TO THE YEAR 2020, SCIENTISTS FORESEE AN EXPLOSION IN SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY SUCH AS THE WORLD HAS NEVER SEEN BEFORE. IN TWO KEY TECHNOLOGIES, COMPUTER POWER AND THE DNA SEQUENCING, WE WILL SEE ENTIRE INDUSTRIES RISE AND FALL ON THE BASIS OF BREATHTAKING SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES. SINCE THE 1950S, THE POWER OF OUR COMPUTERS HAS ADVANCED BY A FACTOR OF ROUGHLY TEN BILLION. IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE .… BY 2020, MICROPROCESSORS WILL LIKELY BE AS A CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL AS SCRAP PAPER, SCATTERED BY THE MILLIONS INTO ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING US TO PLACE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING AROUND US, INCLUDING THE NATURE OF COMMERCE, THE WEALTH OF NATIONS, AND THE WAY WE COMMUNICATE, WORK, PLAY, AND LIVE…” [171]

ALSO #19 of #24:

University of Oxford’s Professor Nick Bostrom, Ph.D. (Faculty of Philosophy & Oxford Martin School AND Director, Future of Humanity Institute AND Director, Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology), argues,

“ … The ethical issues related to the possible future creation of machines with general intellectual capabilities [automation stemming from computing or ven supercomputing] far outstripping those of humans are quite distinct from any ethical problems arising in current automation and information systems. Such superintelligence [, that of Strong Artificial Intelligence,] would not be just another technological development; IT WOULD BE THE MOST IMPORTANT INVENTION EVER MADE, and would lead to explosive progress in all scientific and technological fields, as the superintelligence would conduct research with superhuman efficiency [….] SUPERINTELLIGENCE MAY BE THE LAST INVENTION HUMANS EVER NEED TO MAKE. [….] TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS IN ALL OTHER FIELDS WILL BE ACCELERATED BY THE ARRIVAL OF ADVANCED ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. [….] The foreseeable technologies that a superintelligence is likely to develop include MATURE MOLECULAR MANUFACTURING, whose applications are wide-ranging: a) very powerful computers, b) advanced weaponry, probably capable of safely disarming a nuclear power, c) space travel and von Neumann probes (self-reproducing interstellar probes), d) ELIMINATION OF AGING AND DISEASE, e) fine-grained control of human mood, emotion, and motivation, f) uploading (neural or sub-neural scanning of a particular brain and implementation of the same algorithmic structures on a computer in a way that perseveres memory and personality), g) reanimation of cryonics patients, h) fully realistic virtual reality. [….] ARTIFICIAL MINDS CAN BE EASILY COPIED. [….] EMERGENCE OF SUPERINTELLIGENCE MAY BE SUDDEN. [….] ARTIFICIAL INTELLECTS ARE POTENTIALLY AUTONOMOUS AGENTS. [….] ARTIFICIAL INTELLECTS NEED NOT HAVE HUMANLIKE MOTIVES. [….] ARTIFICIAL INTELLECTS MAY NOT HAVE HUMANLIKE PSYCHES …” Brackets are of the author.

ALSO #20 of of #23: Willy Brandt (18 December 1913 – 8 October 1992) was a German politician and Chancellor of Germany: “…Those who adhere to the past won’t be able to cope with the future…”

ALSO #21 of #24:

Asserted on October 15, 1980 by the Most-Honorable Mr. Willy Brandt (18 December 1913 – 8 October 1992) — was a German politician and Chancellor of Germany—:

“… At the beginning of the 1980s the world community faces much greater dangers than at any time since the Second World War. It is clear that the world economy is now functioning so badly that it damages both the immediate and longer-run interests of all nations [….] The problems of poverty and hunger are becoming more serious; there are already 800 million absolute poor and their numbers are rising; shortages of grain and other foods are increasing the prospect of hunger and starvation [….] Between 20 and 25 million children below the age of five die every year in developing countries [….] A number of poor countries are threatened with the irreversible destruction of their ecological systems while many more face growing food deficits and possibly mass starvation. IN THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF [….] A COLLAPSE OF CREDIT WITH DEFAULTS BY MAJOR DEBTORS, OR BANK FAILURES [….] [AND] AN INTENSIFIED STRUGGLE FOR INFLUENCE OR CONTROL OVER RESOURCES LEADING TO MILITARY CONFLICTS …”

ALSO #22 of #24:

Asserted on October 15, 1980 by the Most-Honorable Mr. Willy Brandt (18 December 1913 – 8 October 1992) — was a German politician and Chancellor of Germany—:

“…Are We Nearing Armageddon? …” (Formulated on October 10, 2015).

ALSO #23 of #24:

Communicated in 1989 by the Most-Honorable Dr. Helmut Kohl (full name Helmut Josef Michael Kohl) — (born April 3, 1930) is a German conservative politician and statesman. He was Chancellor of Germany from 1982 to 1998 (West Germany between 1982 and 1990):

“…The crucial thing is what comes out at the end [….] A successful industrial nation, meaning a nation with future, can not be organized as a collective holiday resort [….] The visionaries of yesterday are the realists of today [….] The new poverty is an invention of the socialist Jet-set …”

ALSO #24 of #24:

Asserted by the Most-Honorable Dame Jane Morris Goodall (http://read.bi/1AZ9i03 AND http://nyti.ms/16OSSy9), the world’s foremost expert on chimpanzees and reported by the New York Times:

“ … 3 OF JANE GOODALL’S DEVASTATING PREDICTIONS FOR 2050 ARE ALREADY COMING TRUE [….] When she was asked by the New York Times recently whether the Earth would be a better or worse place by 2050, chimpanzee expert, UN Messenger of Peace, and author of a book titled “Reason For Hope,” Jane Goodall had a surprisingly bleak response: ’ … I see the world in 50 years, perhaps 100, as a dark place,…’ Jane Goodall said. […] What’s terrifying about Goodall’s vision isn’t how dystopian it sounds, but rather how prescient it’s already proven to be. [….] From the spread of deadly, antibiotic-resistant superbugs to the destruction of habitats that are home to critical life-prolonging drugs, Goodall was right on the money. […] Here are three main predictions Goodall made that are already coming true: 1. PEOPLE WILL BE FLEEING THEIR HOMES: ‘… Environmental refugees,…’ Goodall told the Times, ‘… will have fled their destroyed homelands, flooded by the rising seas or buried by the encroaching deserts. Many people will be starving as they fight for access to water and land ….’ [….] LAST YEAR, MORE THAN 22 MILLION PEOPLE, MANY OF WHOM LIVE IN THE WORLD’S LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, WERE DISPLACED BY NATURAL DISASTERS. A large portion of these countries have the double burden of being located in climate change hotspots — places along the equator, the coast, and elsewhere where the effects of global warming will be magnified. […] As the world gets warmer, the lives of the people who reside here will become bleaker: If they do not move, rising floodwaters and warmer temperatures will leave them more susceptible to pests and disease. The economic value of their lands will decrease and they will become poorer. Those who do migrate away will also struggle — these people will have to take on new, possibly different jobs for which they may lack the proper training or education. [….] 2. INFECTIONS WILL BE HARDER TO CONTROL: ‘… Medical science will be unable to cope with new infections,…’ Goodall said, ‘… as bacteria build up resistance to more and more antibiotics and the tropical forests where so many medical cures are sourced are destroyed …’ […] CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION TOM FRIEDEN SOUNDED THE ALARM BELLS IN 2013 BY SAYING WE’D SOON BE IN A ‘… POST-ANTIBIOTIC ERA…’ SINCE THEN, NEWBORNS IN INDIA HAVE BEGUN DYING AT ALARMING RATES FROM INFECTIONS THAT WERE ONCE CURABLE. The same deadly ‘…superbugs…’ responsible for these deaths are spreading rapidly around the globe. [….] They’ve already come to the United States, fueled in part by our country’s overuse of antibiotics on farmsand in hospitals. LAST YEAR, 23,000 AMERICANS DIED FROM BACTERIAL INFECTIONS THAT DIDN’T RESPOND TO ANTIBIOTICS. Certain strains of ‘… nightmare bacteria…’ kill up to half of the patients they infect, and cases are becoming increasingly common across 42 states. [….] Several diseases the US has kept in check with antibiotics (at least until now) have also developed antibiotic-resistant strains, including gonorrhea and tuberculosis. [….] MULTI-COUNTRY OUTBREAKS OF VIRAL DISEASES LIKE EBOLA HAVE ALSO PROVEN DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. MORE THAN 19,000 PEOPLE HAVE BEEN SICKENED BY EBOLA WORLDWIDE; MORE THAN 7,000 HAVE DIED. [….] Scientists suspect the two-year-old child who was Ebola’s patient zero became infected after coming into contact with a fruit bat. The likelihood of people getting animal diseases increases as humans are forced to move into new areas (often destroying animal habitats in the process). Scientists suspect these were driving factors behind the emerging diseases including the 2011 SARS outbreak and the recent US monkeypox outbreak. [….] 3. CONTINUED DEFORESTATION WILL HAVE DEVASTATING IMPACTS. [….] GOODALL ALSO PREDICTED THE DESTRUCTION OF THE RAINFOREST, WHICH HAS ONLY ACCELERATED SINCE SHE INITIALLY SPOKE ABOUT IT TO THE NEW YORK TIMES IN 2012. Each year, we lose a chunk of rainforest the size of Panama (18 million hectares, up from 13 million in 2010) to deforestation, the vast majority of which is caused by logging and farming.[.…] The loss of these lush forests won’t just affect the animals and plants who live there or the people who live in their immediate vicinity. We get a large portion of our medicines, including the drugs we use to fight deadly diseases like cancer, from the rainforest. The popular cancer drug Taxol, for example, was originally isolated from the seeds of the Cowtail Pine, a small tree that grows only in deep, partially-shaded soils like the kind fostered by the giant trees and sheltered canopies of the rainforest. [….] ’ … Mother Nature is resilient,” Goodall told the Times, “but the time is fast approaching when she will be battered beyond her ability to restore herself. We must make a choice …’ …”

SIGNIFICANTLY AS WELL, TO BE BARED IN MIND:

British people insist that as per the Rosicrucian Englishmen, Shakespeare was really Francis Bacon. Having said that, and coming back to the hard-core subject, Sir Francis Bacon (1561 −1626) wrote,

“… Men have abandoned universality [of knowledge], or philosophia prima, which cannot but cease and stop all progression [pursued through arbitrarily established specialization and even super-specialization]. For no perfect discovery can be made upon a flat or a level; neither is possible to discover the more remote and deeper parts [, both subtle and dramatic,] of any science if you stand but upon the level of the same science, and ascend not to a higher science [towards true non-theological omniscience] …” Brackets of the Author.

CONCLUSION:

Austrian-American Peter Ferdinand Drucker (ISBN: 978–0060851149) strongly argues, as I have verified in my 33-year-old continual evidence-based research, that people’s schemas (understandings of the world), belief systems, worldviews, and most cherished notions and truisms, as well as Weltanschauungs, have a median and in average — as per the 1990’s standards — of twenty (20) years of obsolescence per each person. This obsolescence is insanely grave for the viability of Earth.

Factual proof, available and to the possession of this Author, strongly indicates that such obsolescence has exponentially widened with the elapse of time while technological breakthroughs and scientific discoveries are more prevalent and obvious.

If you don’t understand this, get ready to be Strategically Surprised beyond your most-colossal nightmares. Something(s) seismic and tectonic FORCES will happen globally between 2014 and early 2016. You have been warned!

To-this-end details are to be found in the White Swan book. The reader has seen 0.001% of such a book.

HOWEVER, THERE IS FUNDAMENTAL COPING AVAILABLE FOR THE ONE PAYING ATTENTION. SAID COPING MUST BE INSTITUTED BEFORE THE FACTS, NOT AFTER THE FACTS. I CAN HELP!

ABSOLUTE END.

Authored By Copyright Mr. Andres Agostini

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

http://www.LINKEDIN.com/in/andresagostini

http://www.AMAZON.com/author/agostini

https://www.FACEBOOK.com/agostiniandres

http://www.appearoo.com/aagostini

http://connect.FORWARDMETRICS.com/profile/1649/Andres-Agostini.html

@AndresAgostini

@ThisSuccess

@SciCzar

N.B.: IT IS ARGUED IN MY LINKEDIN PROFILE MY GARGANTUANEST INCLINATION IN WOMB-TO-TOMB THINKING THROUGH SYSTEMS APPROACH AND THE NON-THEOLOGICAL OMNISCIENCE PERSPECTIVE.

FUTURISM UPDATE (December 24, 2014) — Mr. Andres Agostini, Amazon, LinkedIn

0 wall FOR LBF VERY TOP

WHITE SWAN BOOK: The arithmetic of Asia’s future growth http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/12/16/china/arithmetic-asias-future-growth

WHITE SWAN BOOK: IBM’s Watson supercomputing system to be applied to PTSD
http://triblive.com/usworld/nation/7422654-74/watson-ibm-medical#ixzz3MkyvLzCs

WHITE SWAN BOOK: An affordable holodeck for civil engineers http://www.kurzweilai.net/an-affordable-holodeck-for-civil-engineers

WHITE SWAN BOOK: Saudi Oil Minister Says Russia Doesn’t ‘Deserve Market Share’ http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-oil-minister-hints-russia-doesnt-deserve-market-share-2014-12#ixzz3MlTGAfKg

WHITE SWAN BOOK: China’s Nicaragua’s canal. Digging for truth Chinese construction is due to start—but of what? Versus Canada’, The U.S. and Panama’s Canal https://lnkd.in/etc9mh2

BY MR. ANDRES AGOSTINI

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

http://www.LINKEDIN.com/in/andresagostini

http://www.AMAZON.com/author/agostini

http://www.appearoo.com/aagostini

by — 3Dprint.com

3D Printed Air Duct

It’s not every day that you have the FAA looking over your shoulder while you are designing a complex part for 3D printing. It’s also not every day that you have to design a part which, no matter how basic it might sound, must be failsafe, for not only flying, but also in working seamlessly with all the other rigorously tested parts of an aircraft that is going to fly all over the world on charitable medical missions.

Read more

MR. ANDRES AGOSTINI’S ARTICLES ON LINKEDIN

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LINKEDIN: Homer Simpson on NASA and Bart Simpson on Book Of Five Rings and the Noda Secret https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/homer-simpson-nasa-bart-book-five-rings-amazon-com-author-agostini-1

LINKEDIN: SELLING! Getting Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Fortune-500s to Uninterruptedly Buy From You! https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/selling-mr-andres-agostini-amazon-com-author-agostini-3?trk=prof-post

LINKEDIN: CORRECTLY FORESEEING? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141203020027-34427457-correctly-foreseeing?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: A Chat with StarTrek Captain James T. Kirk, the A.I. Incumbent? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141202005900-34427457-a-chat-with-startrek-captain-james-t-kirk-the-a-i-incumbent?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: How Come Artificial Intelligence is Burning Your Hands? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141126011822-34427457-my-date-questions-answered-by-a-female-robot?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: The Swiss Prescription! https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141127021523-34427457-the-swiss-prescription?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: Getting Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Fortune-500s to Uninterruptedly Buy From You! Amazon, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway Corporation, Mitsubishi Motors, Honda, Daimler-Chrysler’s Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, Royal Dutch Shell Oil Company, Google, Xerox, Exxon-Mobil, Boeing, Amazon, Procter & Gamble, NASA and DARPA, Lockheed Martin, RAND Corporation and HUDSON Institute, Northrop Grumman Corporation, GEICO, Microsoft, etc. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141119210301-34427457-getting-apple-amazon-microsoft-to-buy-from-you?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: Marilyn Monroe in London and Continuous Performance Improvement https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141018220154-34427457-the-beautiful-london-secretary-and-continuous-performance-improvement?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: Dr. Strangeloves, the Military-Industrial Complex, Royal Dutch Shell, Skunkworks, and Omniscient: Futuring, Strategizing and Advanced Planning and Execution via Scenario-Planning Methodology by Top Global Corporations and The Technically-Minded Practitioners and Incumbents! https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20141018015730-34427457-dr-strangeloves-the-military-industrial-complex-royal-dutch-shell-skunkworks-and?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: The Advice Bill Gates Gave Us 15 Years Ago… And Made Him a Superbillionaire in the Process! https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20140927125400-34427457-the-advice-bill-gates-gave-us-15-years-ago-and-made-him-a-superbillionaire-in-the-process?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: The 24 Commandments of Resiliency! https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/20140906214412-34427457-the-22-commandments-of-resiliency?trk=mp-reader-card

LINKEDIN: Is Kaizen a Panacea, Six Sigma a Pandora and Black Swan a Sputnik? https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/kaizen-panacea-six-sigma-pandora-black-swan-sputnik?trk=prof-post

FUTURISM UPDATE (December 23, 2014) — Mr. Andres Agostini, Amazon, LinkedIn

a Amazon and Lifeboat

WHITE SWAN BOOK: Russia humbled as Google now worth more than entire country http://ow.ly/G9svL

WHITE SWAN BOOK: British offshore wind farms’ output is soaring. More are needed, but costs must come down http://econ.trib.al/N658U6g

WHITE SWAN BOOK: The End of Tolerance? Anti-Muslim Movement Rattles Germany https://lnkd.in/egqtE5P

WHITE SWAN BOOK: Panic Over Ruble Subsides as Oil Prices Grow http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/panic-over-ruble-subsides-as-oil-prices-grow/513712.html

WHITE SWAN BOOK: Batteries Are the New Peaker Plants http://www.engineering.com/ElectronicsDesign/ElectronicsDesignArticles/ArticleID/9252/Batteries-Are-the-New-Peaker-Plants.aspx

WHITE SWAN BOOK: South Korea nuclear plant operator says hacked, raising alarm http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/22/us-southkorea-nuclear-idUSKBN0K008E20141222

WHITE SWAN BOOK: New chemical analysis of ancient Martian meteorite provides clues to planet’s history of habitability http://phys.org/news/2014-12-chemical-analysis-ancient-martian-meteorite.html

WHITE SWAN BOOK: Generation Putin. What to Expect From Russia’s Future Leaders http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142488/sarah-e-mendelson/generation-putin

BY MR. ANDRES AGOSTINI

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

http://www.LINKEDIN.com/in/andresagostini

http://www.AMAZON.com/author/agostini

http://www.appearoo.com/aagostini

Homer Simpson on NASA and Bart Simpson on Book Of Five Rings and the Noda Secret!THE HANSDS OF THE SWAN IN COREL DRAW

Homer: Son, it has been said that Kaizen is “good change.”

Bart: Dad, good change, Do you mean the throttle?

Homer: Son, What do you mean by throttle?

Bart: Dad, the gas pedal gone lunatic!

Homer: Son, lunatic how?

Bart: Dad, the gas pedal set into out-of-controlness in order to harm the automobile and the driver and passengers in said automobile.

Homer: Son, that is impossible as Kaizen through its doppelgänger (a) Toyota Production System (TPS) and (b) “…Thinking People System…” were in place to preclude what you suggest.

Bart: Dad, I don’t suggest anything as the victims and casualties are in the news and in court and cementeries.

Homer: Son, Really? I didn’t know that. Why do you think this happened?

Bart: Dad, the gas pedal is a subsystem to which huge technical complexity was added, layer after layer, device after device, until the technical complexity superseded the totality of knowledge level of Toyota, worldwide.

Homer: Son, Oh my big “G.” So, Drew says that?

Bart: Dad, yes he does!

Homer: Son, And beyond Drew and Andy who else underpins that?

Bart: Dad, Well, the flaw was so complex that it actually was lucidly identified and elucidated by NASA and never by JAXA.

Homer: Son, JAXA? Is that the detergent ambiword played around by the Illuminati?

Bart: Dad, no, no, no! JAXA is not a Protecter & Gamble detergent but Japan’s NASA.

Homer: Son, and what happened to the instituted “good change” pertaining to the murdering gas pedal?

Bart: Dad, you see, regardless of how tough your Quality Assurance methodology, neither Kaizen nor TPS is instrumented and operationalized with the Systems Approach and the non-theological applied Omniscience perspective, thus bringing about White Swan “Transformative and Integrative” Best Practices!

Homer: Son, Are suggesting that this carmaker is myopic when manufacturing?

Bart: Dad, To a great extent, that carmaker does beautifully, but as the 360-degree flow of processes and contents are not thoroughly pursuited by them, ignorantly and unfailingly they give birth to Black Swans, Blacks Swans that show up frequently and out the blue.

Homer: Son, What does Australian black rara avis have to do with this?

Bart: Dad, You got it all wrong again. But Black Swan I mean to say the incessant fostering of the frequent impact of the dramatic highly improbable (ISBN: 978-0812973815 AND AT http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory )

Homer: Son, Is there a Structural Counterpoint to this stupid Black Swan stuff and Suboptimal Kaizen and TPS? Please, son, tell me if there is a fundamental solution to such simpletonness?

Bart: Dad, Yes there is, but I will not tell you the Secret, by means of which Toyota Production Director, San Noda, kindly baptized Andy with a newer name. THE COUNTERPOINT-plus, so to speak, is: “… The White Swan’s Beyond Eureka and Sputnik Moments: How To Fundamentally Cope With Corporate Litmus Tests and With The Impact of the Dramatic Highly Improbable And Succeed and Prevail Through Transformative and Integrative Risk Management! …” ( ASIN: B00KMY0DLK AND at http://amzn.to/1zi1RDY )

Homer: Son, where did the Noda Secret took place and why?

Bart: Dad, at a long meeting of Andy with the chairman, CEO, CFO and Director of Production of Toyota, through which Andy made a lengthy and most-detailed explanation about technical shortcomings he found both in Kaizen and TPS.

Homer: Son, Oh My God? And the Nippon Honor got bruised in there?

Bart: Dad, Yes, the Director of Production wanted to assassin Andy but the chairman and the CEO remained calmed and tranquil.

Homer: Son, What was the final outcome of said business dealing?

Bart: Dad, well, with the bruised egos, they contracted Andy so that he could institute Andy’s own Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, never implementing Kaizen or TPS.

Homer: Son, Don’t they do also Lean and Mean (ISBN: 978–1572302525), Lean Manufacturing, Agile, Extreme Project Management, Six Sigma and the like?

Bart: Dad, yes, they do but they fail frequently anyway!

Homer: Son, Why? Why? Why?

Bart: Dad, to this end and question, Andy relentlessly argues that they DO NOT observe a Womb-to-Tomb Management Prescription by His Excellency George W. Rutler, S.T.D. (Doctor of Sacred Theology).

Homer: Son, Can you simplify into a couple of words the aforementioned Management Prescription by said Doctor of Sacred Theology?

Bart: Dad, yes, I can readily activate that while George W. Rutler, S.T.D. observes verbatim, “… we [and they and everyone else in the Earth] need a great Dose of Reality [most urgently]…”

Homer: Son, The Creator has spoken as there are, in all truth, so many Ivy-League and Oxbridge postdoctorals that are both myopic and narrow minded in a world in which must-do-for-ever updatedness is abjectly rejected.

Bart: Dad, touché!

Homer: Son, Do Toyota and other global corporations of gran repute from the Far East apply, say and for instance, embrace Servant Leadership (ISBN: 978–0761513698) in order to further underpin their collective efforts towards Quality Assurance and Continuous Process Improvement?

Bart: Dad, yes, they keep the WHOLE FASHIONABLE FAD about Leadership immeasurably overestimated when remarkable Harvard University Leadership Professor Prof. Barbara Kellerman, PhD., among zillion others, has indicated that “…The End of Leadership…” (ISBN: 978–0062069160) has terrifyingly and UNIVERSALLY failed because of rampant lack of ETHICS and absence of LUCRATIVE BUSINESS OUTCOMES. How can you Kaizen something, that is: “…change for the better…”, if you daily violate ethics and your end results are ineffectual, ludicrous, madly-in-love with bankruptcy and decay?

Homer: Son, And the (a) “5S” ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5S_%28methodology%29 ) and (b) the “5 Whys” ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5_Whys ) ?

Bart: Dad, with the great advent of exponential technologies ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_Technology ) since the Fall of the Iron Wall and the lost of “…corporate decorum,…” they simply DO NOT SUFFICE and seem to be necessary a must-do re-birth, overhaul and re-engineering APPROACH to structurally fix those. All of the preceding while in the face of entire Earth flows and overflows a FORCEFUL ZEITGEIST characterized by elites into propelling destroyed à-la-ganters “…ethics…” and imposing their anti-values, in order to make their status quo fatter and more obese, not Lean!

Homer: Son, but in Fukushima, managers there did their very best, didn’t they?

Bart: Dad, Not, they didn’t! That were un-coped-with black swans.

Homer: Son, Why not?

Bart: Dad, Andy argues that organizations from Fukushima part of the world ARE RISK ADVERSE AND ARE UTTERLY AGAINST BEST-IN CLASS WESTERN MODALITIES (chiefly those practices from the West’s western-most region in the Northern Hemisphere) of Risk Management. Andy assures that he has strongly observe this too frequently, not only while working with Mitsubishi Motors and Toyota Motors, but also closely working with the INSURANCE COMPANY called Tokyo Marine Group ( http://www.tokiomarinehd.com/en/group/index.html ).

Homer: Son, And what’s wrong with hating risks before and after they create devastations?

Bart: Dad, those sages from the Far East are nice, but they only concentrate on the “…Line of Production…”, “…Supply Chain…”, “ Workshop Benches,” “…Other Primary, Secondary and tertiary Functions of the Core Business,…” and the inner-most environment of the Factory, the Head-Office or the Throughputting Façades, EXPONENTIALLY IGNORING AND HENCE LACKING TO MANAGE MANY OTHER WASTES, DEFECTS, RISKS, THREATS, BLACK SWANS, BLACK-BOX EVENTS, DOWNSIDE FUTURES, SPUTNIKS, KNOWN UNKNOWNS, UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS, STEMMING FROM THE OUTER-MOST ENVIRONMENT.

Homer: Son, They loves their façades as they feel untouchable for the external environment and the outter-most external environment?

Bart: Dad, touché!

Homer: Son, So you mean to say that the seamless integration of Continuous Process Improvements, Kaizen, Toyota Production System, Agile, Lean, Lean Production, Six Sigma, Extreme Project Management, Servant Leadership, so fort is NOT ENOUGH TO COUNTERMEASSURE MANY OTHER WASTES, DEFECTS, RISKS, THREATS, BLACK SWANS, BLACK-BOX EVENTS, DOWNSIDE FUTURES, SPUTNIKS, KNOWN UNKNOWNS, UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS, STEMMING FROM THE OUTER-MOST ENVIRONMENT?

Bart: Dad, Andy, under his White Swan book and other publications, has been indefatigable to say that Flawness must be a hugely studied science and that issues must be dealed with preemptively before they happen through the systems approach and with the applied omniscience perspective in due place, IN ORDER TO AVOID, and by way of just one meager example, “… AUTO RECALLS SURPASS 60 MILLION IN 2014, NEARLY TWICE THE PREVIOUS U.S. RECORD …” ( http://bit.ly/1Clgyap ). ANDY INSISTS AND INSISTS ON THAT POTENTIAL DISRUPTION IS A POTENTIAL DISRUPTION FROM WHEREVER IT COMES AND THAT THOSE CAN BE FUNDAMENTALLY SOLVED AND PROFITED FROM, EARLY, AS PER HIS WORDS, NUMBERS, FACTS, AND STATS.

Homer: Son, Under his Disruption Potential, Does Andy’s White Swan Idea include, say, the disasters both by Fukushima and Sony Corporation to cite just two instances?

Bart: Dad, A quick answer is an IRONCLAD YES. THE LONGER ANSWER INCLUDES THE FOLLWING CASES WHOSE WHITE SWAN TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT WAS NEVER EVER INSTITUTED:

EXTREMELY SHORT LISTS BY BART ENSUES NOW:

(#1 of #14)_ Takata air bags. (http://read.bi/1GLoul9).

(#2 of #14)_ Mazda Recalls 100,000 Cars for Defect in Tire Pressure Sensor.

(#3 of #14)_ Toyota Gas Pedal

(#4 of #14)_ General Motors Co. ignition switches

(#5 of #14)_ GM alone has recalled nearly 27 million cars and trucks in the U.S. this year, a record for any single automaker. Defective GM ignition switches in small cars have been linked to at least 42 deaths and 58 injuries.

(#6 of #14)_ Honda Motor Co., the third-largest Japanese automaker, has recalled 5.4 million vehicles to replace Takata air bags.

(#7 of #14)_ Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV said Dec. 19 that it would accede to a NHTSA request and expand an existing air-bag recall. That will add 2.89 million vehicles to the recall total for the U.S. when reflected in the government database.

(#8 of #14)_ With the focus on more and quicker recalls, 2014 will probably signify a period of elevated safety fixes, Steinkamp said. The average number of recalled vehicles per year from the 2004 through last year was 16.1 million, according to NHTSA data. “…It’s a landmark year; it’s the start of a new era,…” said by Neil Steinkamp, a managing director at Stout Risius Ross who studies warranty and recall issues.

(#9 of #14)_ Virgin Galactic Crash (http://on.wsj.com/1sO9FWK)

(#10 of #14)_ Nasa’s Antares rocket explosion (http://ti.me/1tfXndg)

(#11 of #14)_ Even Airliners Weaponized Into Skyscrapers and the Pentagon (http://bit.ly/JsvuKR)

(#12 of #14)_ Sony “Rogue State”-sponsored Cyberhack (http://nyti.ms/1wPlRLX)

(#13 of #13)_ Boston Marathon bombings ( http://bit.ly/1m8zZqx )

(#14 of #14)_ Suzuki Motor to recall 453,000 mini vehicles in Japan (http://bit.ly/1Cr0Zev)

THE LONG LIST IS WITHIN THE WHITE SWAN BOOK AT: http://amzn.to/1AvY2tK

EXTREMELY SHORT LISTS BY BART ENDS NOW.

Homer: Son, Why are so many tragedies there?

Bart: Dad, Mostly because DoD, NASA, Virgin Galactic, Sony, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Mazda, Honda, GM, Takata, Fiat-Chrysler think that your corporate theaters of operations can be TOTALLY CLEAR AND FREE OF DISRUPTION POTENTIAL BY ONLY AND ONLY APPLYING CONTINOUS PROCESS IMPROVEMT, QUALITY ASSURANCE, KAIZEN, TOYOTA PRODUCTION SYSTEM, PROCESS REENGINEER, etc. In each corporate theater of operations within the global marketplace, every corporation is waging war to be world’s marketplace #1, with the utter purpose not to incurr in Chapter Seven ( http://bit.ly/1AvSjnM ), thus outright bankruptcy.

Homer: Son, Why does Apple manufacture IPhones in Japan with a U.S. name and domicile?

Bart: Dad, Because, after all and with all and all, Japanese and German manufacturing is the world’s least worst, except for the quality assurance used in manufacturing U.S., French and Israeli weapons? Weapons is a fancy word for “…tools to carry on with applied politics through other means …!…”

Homer: Son, How do you make the case against the defects and shortcomings in Japanese approaches not only to manufacture, but also to manage the corporate theater of operations from a Womb-to-Tomb stance?

Bart: Dad, I greatly value Japanese execs and sages but they focus only on throughputting(*) the Known Inputs Into Desirable Outputs inside their premises, without considering the Non-Existential and Existential Risk of the External Environment (outside their industrial façade) at large as we do in the White Swan’s Tranformative and Integrative Risk Management Services.

(*) Throughputting is a Latin word in its ING-form stemming from Latin language, whose meaning is exactly this: Modus Operandi (MO). In all order and in all correction, to assert to modus-opendai X is exactly identical to throughput X.

Yes, they Kaizen within and beyond and from the Assembly Line to HHRR and many other administrative facilities and operations. However, in Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, we consider and implement, as a major sub-chapter, every possible and most updated tool(s) by Quality Assurance and Continuous Improvement, most of the times to a “Shock and Awe” practical level for the sake of corporate lucre in sustainability.

Briefly, this is what I can add to this point.

Homer: Son, Are you sure you are not with the Discrete and Secretive Scotch Rite?

Bart: Not, thank you, Dad.

Homer: Son, What Do Suzuki, General Electric, and Toyota have in Common?

Bart: Dad, As per the downsides, Toyota is better known by the “…gas pedal…” error, constructed by “…throwing and throwing…” layers and layers of Knowledge Complexity (that is: heavy and undue involvement with the unknown Science of Complexity) to a single sub-subsystem, the gas pedal. Many American and Canadian lives were lost in the process.

The scientific forensics party, to become amenable to the U.S. Congress, was performed and solved by NASA. Toyota could have resorted, but to the despair of U.S. congressmen, to Japan’s NASA, JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency).

In accordance to its disadvantages, the massive disruption by The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, that was jointly built and jointly managed by General Electric, Boise, and Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO).

Now, we have the recall by Suzuki. Suzuki Motor Corp, as per Reuters, on Thursday (September 19, 2014) issued a recall of 453,225 minivehicles in Japan to fix a defect in the blower fan motor of the air-conditioning unit that has resulted in three fires so far.

I have vast experience with Kaizen and Toyota Production System even before ANdy became extremely knowledgeable with two of his most salient clients, Toyota Motors and Mitsubishi Motors.

ONE. If you add complexity to your subsystems without fully knowing the upsides and downsides, the above will happen, unless to an important degree.

SECOND. These disruptions also happen when there is either or both Low Morale and Low Moral with Flawed Ethics. When in the corporate theater of operations there is SOLEMNITY, you immediately get a nice spinoff: High Morale, Optimal Morality, and Fundamental Ethics.

THIRD. Kaizen, Toyota Production System (TPS), and Lean Six Sigma, in my personal, opinion need to incorporate other problem-solving methodologies, quite amenable to the Fortune-100 Victors of the West.

When Andy carefully and in a most detailed and sequential fashion proved to Toyota’s Chairman, CEO and Production Director (Mr. Noda) TPS to be limited and constrained and blinded to Manage Risks, both from within the Assembly Line and from outside the Factory Facade, they got furious and Mr. Noda start crying like a little child.

However, the Patrician Patriarch at the helm of the Chair stayed extremely calmed and relaxed and issued a directive to contract Andy and do his (a) Beyond-Kaizen Method, and (b) Beyond TPS Method, right, as every mensurable outcomes (numerical goals and narrative objectives) were not achieved, but superseded in the audited actuality.

Homer: Son, you really love work harder than a workaholic, do you not?

Bart: Dad, you are 10% right. In fact, I just carry on with my pass times. However, seen from the outside enjoying my solving-wicked-problem pass times, clients and colleagues say that I look more, along the lines of an indefatigable Extraterrestrial Tesla Device ( http://bit.ly/1iLbOOo ).

Homer: Son, What does Sony (Global) Corporation operating in the totally of the Globe knows about Crisis Management ( http://bit.ly/1JFFlYQ ) ?

Bart: Dad, Exactly NOTHING! And Sony does know know, either, that as it operates multinationally, that it is entrenched with realpolitik world’s geopolitics and world history and world geography and world culture and ubiquitous world connectivity! SONY — LIKE TOYOTA, MITSUBISHI, SUZUKI, MAZDA, HONDA AND, AMONG MANY OTHERS, TOKYO MARINE (Insurance) — KNOWS ZERO ABOUT EXTREMELY-HOLISTIC BEYOND INSURANCE RISK MANAGEMENT, EXACTLY AS PER THE DICTUMS OF WHITE SWAN “…TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT…”

Homer: Son, So, I deduct from your saying that Nippons believe, as a close pride society, that their management style is untouchable and infinitely better than any SERIOUS MANAGEMENT (PROBLEM-SOLVING) IN THE WEST? Please also tell me a bit about the famous Noda Story.

Bart: Dad, EXACTLY. They proudly think of themselves best-in-class worldwide and in some extents and areas, yes, in fact, they are. ABOUT THE FACTUAL NODA STORY? This is a real-life story extremely summarized. I made a granularity-of-detail executive presentation to Toyota’s Board of Directors, including Mr. Noda (the Production Director). With the largest and smallest minuteness, step by step, sub-step by sub-step, I outright proved to Toyota Chairman, CEO, Production Director, CFO and others in the Board that using Kaizen to Manage Risks Holistically as per the Western state-of-the-art understanding was beyond ineffectual and inconsequential.

Of course and due to extreme Japanese nationalism and single mindedness, Mr. Noda assumed that I was too stupid to know something substantive about Kaizen and Toyota Production System and the American Professors who taught them their “stuff” through long consultative years.

When I first knocked the Toyota front-office door, I had spent twenty (20) years studying every advancement in business, management, and industry, clearly acknowledging every upside and every downside. In fact I was first introduced to a full-scope indoctrination in Japanese methodologies (ISBN: 978–0075543329 and ISBN: 978–0915299140) by Royal Dutch Shell.

Through Shell I was also greatly trained into Mr. William E. Conway’s “… Right Way to Manage …” (ISBN: 978–0963146458). Via them we observe quality assurance by the U.S. Navy, Los Alamos Lab, Hitachi. Thenceforth, a doctor in science taught me about what Quality, Reliability, Safety and Security meant for NASA. In a congruent and coherent and cohesive way, you will find those and other proprietary items within the White Swan “Transformative and Integrative Risk Management.”

In Shell, like as it is Mr. Jiddu Krishnamurti, there are no folly regionalism but frinctionless globalization and globalization smartification, thus embracing any useful approach, regardless of geography, story, race, ethnicity or else, AS LONG AS IT FURTHER UNDERPINS THE GLOBAL STRATEGIC BOTTOM-LINE, PERIOD!

I was heavily researching not just Toyota’s advancements and others by the Corporate Miracle of Japan of the 1980s, but absolutely everything regarding the countermeassuring of any form (including its many synonyms) of, direct or indirect, disruptions, both in the West and the Far East.

As Japan was topnotch and nobody in the West was doing something meritorious (as per Noda’s schema), he found it stupid and time-wasting and not lucrative to even consider the methodologies, even those by NASA and way beyond that, that I was ruthlessly researching, nation by nation, industry by industry. Ergo, as my amazing father and Napoleon Bonaparte stated, “ … I only have one counsel or you — be a master …” to the strategic surprise (Sputnik Moment) of Toyota, Noda, and Mitsubishi Motors.

Mr. Noda was extremely infuriated with me but, despite him, the Chairman hired me and carried on with emotional evenness, that of a Wise and Sage Patriarch. Mr. Noda gave me a positive nickname that I will not release at this or other time.

Other considerations pertaining to Kaizen and its evolution way beyond that, I will be commenting about in due time.

Homer: Son, Who is Taiichi?

Bart: Dad, Do you mean Mr. Taiichi Ohno?

Homer: Son, yes, tell me about him!

Bart: Dad, I will give you an info capsule. Taiichi Ohno (1912 – 1990) was a Japanese businessman and is considered to be the father of the Toyota Production System, which became Lean Manufacturing in the U.S. In the book The Perfect Engine (ISBN: 978–0743203814), it is commented the ensuing excerpt:

“ … When Taiichi Ohno visited the Ford Motor plant at River Rouge in the early fifties, he was truly humbled. Ford Motor’s quality and productivity were several times better than Toyota’s. The operational lead time, or total elapsed time for converting raw materials into a Model T, was only three days. Mr. Ohno worked diligently over the next twenty years to develop a version of Ford’s miracle that came to be known as the Toyota Production System …”

Homer: Son, being from the Far East and besides Lean Manufacturing, Do they observe and copy Sun Tzu’s Art of War?

Bart: Dad, Not, they don’t. Remember they are a tough small island that besieged and ruled in China, a huge country, that is to say: China, Germany’s world’s client number 1. IN FACT, THEY OBSERVE AGILE AND LEAN MANUFACTURING AND THEIR OWN 1645’S BOOK OF FIVE RINGS ( HTTP://BIT.LY/1ZAI0PG), BY MEANS OF WHICH IT IS FORCEFULLY MANDATED TO «INVESTIGATE AFFAIRS THOROUGHLY THROUGH» PRACTICE RATHER THAN TRYING TO LEARN THEM BY MERELY READING.

Homer: Bart, that sound very tough, isn’t it?

Bart: Dad, in fact, it is harshly tough without a fail.

Homer: Bart, do they watch the waves or the currents underneath?

Bart: Dad, they watch the waves, and both the currents underneath and the undercurrents closer to the sea bed!

Homer: Bart, Can you please explain the differences between Currents and Undercurrents?

Bart: Dad, I was reading The Economist and a notion came to my mind.

We have all have heard the Chinese adage,

“… Don’t look at the waves but the currents underneath …”

Currents are “ … Dynamic Driving Forces …” that eject sequences of so-called “…Trends…” While Undercurrents are Counter-“ … Dynamic Driving Forces …” that eject sequences of so-called “…Counter-Trends…”

As per the onset and in-progress Disruptional Singularity (coined by the signatory at http://amzn.to/1wfx4At), and using the terms “current” and “undercurrent” as linguistic wilds-cards, we have several CONCURRENT Global Currents and Worldly Undercurrents going on, around this Globe.

In extremely-holistic (beyond-insurance) risk management, we always know that small risks and medium-size risks and even large risks end up compounding together into devastation if we stay like innocent bystanders.

And as they compound, they make the Diruptional Singularity a reality.

Considering Media and Political Agendas, Which one is the “Current,” Ebola or ISIS?

Considering Media and Political Agendas, Which one is the “Undercurrent,” ISIS or Ukraine?

And there are also Forefronts and Foregrounds, such as the global massive sovereign indebtedness, nation-state-promoted cyberattacks, or reserve currencies waged into wars by the Central Bankers in the most important world economies.

Proper jobs and correct employment will never come back as industrial investors prefer to invest on bots and superautomation than humans. For the sake of their shares values and dividends, they will make frequent pacts with Satan with the utter purpose to be superricher yet. You see, they need to take with their wife about 25 millions to collaborate with the fight against Ebola to underpin their own P.R. agenda.

We have our concentration GLUED to the Waves, and not the Currents, Undercurrents, Counter-Currents, and Counter-Undercurrents underneath!

Currents are Dynamic Driving Forces that reshape this as-of-now Present (Continuum) and near-term Future.

Undercurrents are Counter-” Dynamic Driving Forces” that reshape this as-of-now Present (Continuum) and near-term future.

And so on and on. Every Force has a Counter-Force.

In order not to get your mind brainwashed, socially-engineered, or brain-controlled, you are going to have to REFLECT HARD AND SUBTLE and UNCONDITIONALLY AUDIT all those currents and counter-current underneath.

Homer: Bart, are you sure you are not the ruler mastermind of the Priory of Zion (http://bit.ly/16Hlppe)? THEN, TO KAIZEN OR NOT TO KAIZEN, TO FUKUSHIMA OR NOT TO FUKUSHIMA?

Bart: Dad, Again and again and again.

SHAKESPEARE: TO KAIZEN OR NOT TO KAIZEN, TO FUKUSHIMA OR NOT TO FUKUSHIMA?

I have extensively worked with Toyota and Mitsubishi Motors, as I have with many Western Corporation of a global scale, including Royal Dutch Shell and Exxon-Mobile. I also develop my own proprietary problem-solving methodology to manage every risks, in advance and otherwise, by the Internal Environment, even duly assuring Quality Control and Continuous Improvements along with womb-to-tomb Corporate Strategy, and External Environment, called Transformative and Integrative Risk Management.

The accomplished Japanese eliminating operational wastes and flaws in the products and manufacturing processes and further eternally improving those are the Monarchy in the Galaxy. But as they apply heavy Quality Assurance to Nuclear Plants like Fukushima, they never preemptively think of the flaws and threats stemming from the external environment, sometimes even from the external environment outside of the facade of the plant, factory or whatever installation.

It is like the Japanese are always fixated on the Henry Ford’s Assembly Line, ignoring other company’s crucial assets, both tangible and intangible.

Under Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, every form of advanced Quality Assurance and Continuous Improvement is as CRUCIAL as any internal or external threat, regardless whether they stem from the manufacturing process or NOT, including so-called Black-Swan events.

Japanese managers and engineers are hugely remarkable and respected people. However, I need to operate Womb-to-Tomb, early on.

To better understand the idea put forward, you need to read the White Swan.

Homer: Bart, Should I understand that Transformative and Integrative Risk Management has well established operational sub-chapters for both Continuous Improvement and Quality Assurance?

Bart: Dad, yes, you are accurate. But the scale, magnitude, and granularity of details incessantly considered by Transformative and Integrative Risk Management is mind-boggling for top Doctors in Rocket Science and yourself!

Homer: Bart, Really? Why is that? Can you elaborate about a hugely ignored ‘scientific knowledge’-laden, not out-foolish Thomas Paine’s so-called “common sense” that is forgotten and ignored by the corporate theaters of operation within the Top-10 Fortune 500?

Bart: Dad, well, the corporate theaters of operation within the Top-10 Fortune 500 constantly and continuously ignored some extremely useful and for-lucre methods by the Los Alamos National Laboratory ( http://www.lanl.gov/ ) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ( https://www.llnl.gov/ ).

I will give you a concrete example. The savant over Procter & Gamble asked Los Alamos National Laboratory for a Process Engineering (Quality Assurance Method), sponsored by the gray matter and genes and synapses of Los Alamos National Laboratory scientists, but always dovetailed and customized to the needs, requirements and specifications of Procter & Gamble and its rampantly victorious corporate theater of operations.

Homer: Bart, Hugely Interesting and What Else? Is that your best?

Bart: Dad, no, no, that is not my best as I have spoken, pertaining to all-encompassing quality assurance approaches, of other as high standards and even higher as those available and observed by White Swan “Transformative and integrative Risk Management,” such as those of the world-class Military Spheres of Influence.

TO THIS END, I COULD ELLABORATE A LITTLE.

QUALITY ASSURANCE IN MILITARY AERONAUTIC INDUSTRIES! THIS IS A WORLDWIDE REAL-LIFE PRIORITIZED (TOP-DOWN) BRIEF LIST OF MILITARY ACHIEVEMENTS CONCERNING QUALITY ASSURANCE. ENSUING:

THE BEST Quality Assurance In Military Aeronautic Equipment Is And By American Manufacturer(S).

THE SECOND Best Quality Assurance In Military Aeronautic Equipment Is And By European Manufacturer(S).

THE THIRD Best Quality Assurance In Military Aeronautic Equipment Is And By Israeli Manufacturer(S).

THE FOURTH Best Quality Assurance In Military Aeronautic Equipment Is And By Russian Manufacturer(S).

THE FIFTH Best Quality Assurance In Military Aeronautic Equipment Is And By Chinese Manufacturer(S).

THE SIXTH Best Quality Assurance In Military Aeronautic Equipment Is And By Iranian Manufacturer(S).

NB_1: The writeup is based on evidence. Lack of information cannot allow the inclusion of Japan and India and their immeasurable achievements.

NB_2: However: Remember That Dedicated People Learn Fast And Change (UPGRADE) To Warp Speed!

Homer: Bart, What else do Nippons and Fortune-500 Top-10s lack to comprehend as a hardcore scientific truism while we are are experiencing a light-speed multi-eon age, way beyond millennials, exponential technologies, other societal and demographic and economic current imperatives?

Bart: Dad, that can be stated simply. I will tell you some things that Kaizen, Toyota Production Systems, Agile, Lean Manufacturing, Continuous Improvement, Juran’s Prescription, Six Sigma, Los Alamos’ Process Engineering and many other approaches, without forgetting that applied Systems Reliability allow America to upgrade its technological hotbeds when it made a quantum leap from Henry Ford’s knowledge base to moonshotting the Apollo Program into Moon-landing!

Homer: Bart, What are those considerations in the preceding paragraph that almost all Nippons and Fortune-500 Top-10s are failing to consider?

Bart: Dad, for instance, Paul Valéry (1932) wrote,

“… All the notions we thought solid, all the values of civilized life, all that made for stability in international relations, all that made for regularity in the economy … in a word, all that tended happily to limit the uncertainty of the morrow, all that gave nations and individuals some confidence in the morrow … all this seems badly compromised. I have consulted all augurs I could find, of every species, and I have heard only vague words, contradictory prophecies, curiously feeble assurances. Never has humanity combined so much power with so much disorder, so much anxiety with so many playthings, so much knowledge with so much uncertainty …”

AND:

Charles Dickens (1798) wrote,

“ …It was the best of times, it was the worst of times … it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair …”

AS WELL:

COMMENTARY BY BART: As per my evidence-based research and perpetual verification in real time, the only Singularity that there will be is not the Technological Singularity, but what I call the Disruptional Singularity. However, if every citizen in the world gets his, her act together the soonest, there is hope for a better world at a later time.

IF YOU THINK THIS IS FLAWED, SEE THE MASSIVE SECRET REPORTS OF THE N.I.C. ( NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL at http://1.usa.gov/1gloStR) TO THE INCUMBENT OF THE WHITE HOUSE.

THIS TOO:

Prof. Michio Kaku, Ph.D. indicates:

“… By the end of the twentieth century, science had reached the end of an era, unlocking the secrets of the atom, unraveling the molecule of life, and creating the electronic computer. With these three fundamental discoveries, triggered by the quantum revolution, the DNA revolution, and the computer revolution, the basic laws of matter, life, and computation were, in the main, finally solved .… That epic phase of science is now drawing to a close; one era is ending and another is only beginning .… The next era of science promises to be an even deeper, more thoroughgoing, more penetrating one than the last .… Clearly, we are on the threshold of yet another revolution. HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history. COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS. Almost daily, the headlines herald new advances in computers, telecommunications, biotechnology, and space exploration. In the wake of this technological upheaval, entire industries and lifestyles are being overturned, only to give rise to entirely new ones. But these rapid, bewildering changes are not just quantitative. They mark the birth pangs of a new era .… FROM NOW TO THE YEAR 2020, SCIENTISTS FORESEE AN EXPLOSION IN SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY SUCH AS THE WORLD HAS NEVER SEEN BEFORE. IN TWO KEY TECHNOLOGIES, COMPUTER POWER AND THE DNA SEQUENCING, WE WILL SEE ENTIRE INDUSTRIES RISE AND FALL ON THE BASIS OF BREATHTAKING SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES. SINCE THE 1950S, THE POWER OF OUR COMPUTERS HAS ADVANCED BY A FACTOR OF ROUGHLY TEN BILLION. IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE .… BY 2020, MICROPROCESSORS WILL LIKELY BE AS A CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL AS SCRAP PAPER, SCATTERED BY THE MILLIONS INTO ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING US TO PLACE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING AROUND US, INCLUDING THE NATURE OF COMMERCE, THE WEALTH OF NATIONS, AND THE WAY WE COMMUNICATE, WORK, PLAY, AND LIVE…” [171]

AND AS WELL:

Nanotechnology and life by Ray Kurzweil (as of May 2009)!

“…Nanotechnologies are broad concept, it’s simply refers to technology where the key features in measuring the small number of nanometers. A NANOMETER IS THE DIAMETER OF FIVE CARBON ATOMS SO IT’S VERY CLOSE TO THE MOLECULAR LEVEL AND WE ALREADY HAVE NEW MATERIALS AND DEVICES THAT HAD BEEN MANUFACTURED AT THE NANOSCALE. IN FACT, CHIPS TODAY, THE KEY FEATURES ARE 50 OR 60 NANOMETERS SO THAT IS ALREADY NANOTECHNOLOGY. The true promise of nanotechnology is that ultimately we’ll be able to create devices that are manufactured at the molecular level by putting together, molecular fragments in new combinations so, I can send you an information file and a desktop nanofactory will assemble molecules according to the definition in the file and create a physical objects so I can e-mail you a pair of trousers or a module to build housing or a solar panel and WE’LL BE ABLE TO CREATE JUST ABOUT ANYTHING WE NEED IN THE PHYSICAL WORLD FROM INFORMATION FILES WITH VERY INEXPENSIVE INPUT MATERIALS. You can… I mean, just a few years ago if I wanted to send you a movie or a book or a recorded album, I would send you a FedEx package, now I can e-mail you an attachment and you can create a movie or a book from that. On the future, I’ll be able to e-mail you a blouse or a meal. So, that’s the promise of nanotechnology. Another promise is to be able to create devices that are size of blood cells and by the way biology is an example of nanotechnology, the key features of biology are at the molecular level. SO, THAT’S ACTUALLY THE EXISTENCE PROOF THAT NANOTECHNOLOGY IS FEASIBLE BUT BIOLOGY IS BASED ON LIMITED SIDE OF MATERIALS. EVERYTHING IS BUILT OUT OF PROTEINS AND THAT’S A LIMITED CLASS OF SUBSTANCES. WITH NANOTECHNOLOGY WE CAN CREATE THINGS THAT ARE FAR MORE DURABLE AND FAR MORE POWERFUL. One scientist designed a robotic red blood cell it’s a thousand times more powerful than the biological version so, if you were to replace a portion of your biological red blood cells with this respirocytes the robotic versions. You could do an Olympic sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath or sit at the bottom of your pool for 4 hours. If I were to say someday you’ll have millions or even billions of these nanobots, nano-robots, blood cell size devices going through your body and keeping you healthy from inside, I might think well, that sounds awfully futuristic. I’d point out this already in 50 experiments in animals of doing exactly that with the first generation of nano engineered blood cell size devices. One scientist cured type 1 diabetes in rats with the blood cell size device. Seven nanometer pores let’s insulin out in the controlled fashion. At MIT, there’s a blood cell size device that can detect and destroy cancer cells in the bloodstream. These are early experiments but KEEP IN MIND THAT BECAUSE OF THE EXPONENTIAL PROGRESSION OF THIS TECHNOLOGY, THESE TECHNOLOGIES WILL BE A BILLION TIMES MORE POWERFUL IN 25 YEARS AND YOU GET SOME IDEA WHAT WILL BE FEASIBLE …” [199]

Homer: Bart, Does ISO standards suffice?

Bart: Dad, the provisions by International Organization for Standardization ( http://www.iso.org/iso/home.html ) are a good starting point, but not sufficiently optimal for Google X, DARPA, NASA, plain-vanilla Google, Amazon and other ground-breaking organizations, obsoleting New Frontiers frequently. Nonetheless, ISO standards are considered buy they do not intellectually castrate today’s winners-take-it-all!

Homer: Bart, What is updatedness? Does it affect Kaizen, TPS, Lean Manufacturing and the like?

Bart: Dad, your question demand that you memorize a Maxim for Life! Tis:

“… Everything is somewhat related related to everything else…” The “…somewhat…” is there to underlying mean that withing the “…fabrics…” of Cosmos’ Dark Matter and Dark Energy, everything is connected in discrete modes.

SO, YOU ASK HOW TO UNDERSTAND REAL-WORLD ZEITGEIST AND UPDATEDNESS, FLUIDLY?

TO THIS UTTER PURPOSE:

Austrian-American Peter Ferdinand Drucker (ISBN: 978–0060851149) strongly argues, as I have verified in my 33-year-old continual evidence-based research, that people’s schemas (understandings of the world), belief systems, worldviews, and most cherished notions and truisms, as well as Weltanschauung, have a median and in average — as per the 1990’s standards — of twenty (20) years of obsolescence per each person.

Factual proof, available and to this Bart, strongly indicates that such obsolescence has exponentially widened with the elapse of time while technological breakthroughs and scientific discoveries are more prevalent and obvious.

To-this-end details are to be found in the White Swan book.

WE NOW HAVE, FOR INSTANCE:

1.- A Russian Submarine in sovereign waters of Sweden. Along with some deep military provocations to other areas of the former Warsaw Act. France is asking Germany an emergency loan of 80 billion Euros.

2.- A great potential not to an Ebola epidemic, but pandemic. Ebola is decimating some African regions.

3.- ISIS (so-called Islamic States), with potentials to reach the Indian Ocean and Eurabia.

4.- Israel/Palestine Conflict.

5.- Ukraine’s lost of Crimea.

6.- Russia wanting to remind the world that there are a Galatic Superpower, not only in perilous Eastern Europe, Europe in General, and the World at large. Some reports argue that Russia will have a military presence in the Seven Seas, including a Military Base domiciled in the Arctic and Antarctic. Remember?

7.- Cold War II.

8.- Arms Race II.

9.- Space-Age War to Conquer the Outer Space, with novel players such as India.

10.- The Global Existential Risk of the Weather and the Environment.

11.- The Universal Deflation of the Advanced Economies of the Planet.

12.- The Universal Surplus of Corrupted Politicians and Universal Lack of Employment.

13.- If we get lucky, we can also get into M.A.D. WWIII.

13.- So forth.

N.B.: Dad, remember that if you think that the geopolitical tensions in the China South Sea do not affect the business operations of for-lucre multinationals around the world, I must tell you that these corporate warriors, Fortune 500, Sony Corporation and otherwise, has ludicrous planned and executed Strategies and Strategizing ones.

Then, Dad, the right question is, How can we fundamentally Kaizen the thirteen items above?

Homer: Bart, all of what you tell me sounds most complicated, son!

Bart: Dad, it is not complicated, but most complex. I will try to explain why with a message to all MANAGERS, regardless of their Professional Lines of Practices and the Core Business of their respective firms.

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY’ SIR MARTIN REES, PH.D. (BRITISH ASTRONOMER ROYAL) FORCEFULLY SUGGEST TO MANAGERS TO BECOME PRACTICALLY AND PRACMATICALLY FLUENT AND COGNIZANT IN THE “…SCIENCE OF COMPLEXITY …” (ISBN: 978–0671872342) AND TO FURTHER ILLUSTRATE CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, BENEFITS AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS, HE WROTE:

“ … Science is emphatically not, as some have claimed, approaching its end; it is surging ahead at an accelerating rate. We are still flummoxed about the bedrock nature of physical reality, and the complexities of life, the brain, and the cosmos. New discoveries, illuminating all these mysteries, will engender benign applications; but will also pose NEW ETHICAL DILEMMAS AND BRING NEW HAZARDS …. BUT THERE IS A DARK SIDE: NEW SCIENCE CAN HAVE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES; IT EMPOWERS INDIVIDUALS TO PERPETRATE ACTS OF MEGATERROR; EVEN INNOCENT ERRORS COULD BE CATASTROPHIC. THE ‘DOWNSIDE’ FROM TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY TECHNOLOGY COULD BE GRAVER AND MORE INTRACTABLE THAN THE THREAT OF NUCLEAR DEVASTATION THAT WE HAVE FACED FOR DECADES. AND HUMAN-INDUCED PRESSURES ON THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT MAY ENGENDER HIGHER RISKS THAT THE AGE-OLD HAZARDS OF EARTHQUAKES, ERUPTIONS, AND ASTEROID IMPACTS …”

Homer: Bart, it seems to me that the External Environment has been immeasurably underestimated by these Kaizen-centric and ‘Six Sigma’-focused corporations, being now elucidated to me that the external threats are not abstract, but formidably dangerous to the totality of the “…business as usual…” as IF the for-lucre affairs are carried on within the indoors of the Internal Environment.

So, Bart, you have upped so much White Swan “…Transformative and Integrative Risk Management…” ( http://amzn.to/1wUhrDq ) to a point of superseding and ruling, by a nonlinear order of explosive magnitude, functions such as Systems Quality Assurance, Systems Reliability, Systems Safety, Systems Security, among other amenities about which Andy holds under Fort Knock’s proprietary secret of his sole own.

I CAN SEE THAT “…TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT…” (PROBLEM-SOLVING METHODOLOGY) HAS TAKEN BALKANIZED FUNCTIONS, REFINED THEM, UPDATED THEM AND UPGRADED THEM AND BROUGHT THEM INTO A SEAMLESS MONOLITHIC INTEGRATION, ACTING AS THE MILKY WAY’S BERLUSCONI TO GUARANTEE SUSTAINED BUSINESS SUCCESS. HAVING ACKNOWLEDGED THAT, DOES “…TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT…” TAKE OVER OTHER FUNCTIONS?

Bart: Dad, I see that you are beginning to understand. “…TRANSFORMATIVE AND INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT…” also takes charge, from Alpha to Omega, of the entire planned and executed Corporate Strategy, directly reporting to the CEO, Chairman, and Board of Directors.

Homer: Bart, What type of professional c-level executives are we going to need to institute the preceding?

Bart: Dad, Infinitely beyond the Black-Belt Senseis.

IN ALL SPECIFICITY, SEE THE FOLLOWING:

In any management undertaking today, and given the universal volatility and rampant and uninterrupted rate of change, one must think and operate in a fluid womb-to-tomb mode.

The manager must think and operate holistically, both systematically and systemically, at all times.

In the twentieth-one century, How top managers must be, in order to succeed?

The manager must also be: i) Multidimensional, ii) Interdisciplinary, iii) Cross-disciplinary (or Interdisciplinary), iv) Multifaceted, v) Cross-functional, vi) Multifarious, vii) Multi-specializing, viii) Multimodal, ix) Cross-Referential, x) Multitasking, xi) Cross-pollinating, xii) Cross-fertilizing, xiii) Cross-sectional and xiv) Longitudinal.

THAT IS, THE MANAGER MUST NOW BE AN EXPERT STATE-OF-THE-ART IN-ALL-PRACTICALITY (A) GENERALIST AND (B) ERUDITE.

An expert state-of-the-art in-all-practicality generalist and erudite INCLUDES, as per 1999’s SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation) CEO, Mr. Roger Brown, observed that my notion comprises of:

(I.-) A Knowledgist,

(II.-) A Champion, and

(III.-) A Braingainer.

ALSO:

THIS EXPERT STATE-OF-THE-ART IN-ALL-PRACTICALITY GENERALIST AND ERUDITE MUST ALSO CONJOINTLY INCLUDE A STRONG BONDING TO:

(A.-) Science,

(B.-) Punditry,

(C.-) Nerdiness,

(D.-) Wizardry. — (“… Any sufficiently advanced technology is virtually indistinguishable from magic…” —Arthur C. Clarke).

ERGO, THIS IS THE NEWEST SPECIALIST AND SPECIALIZATION.

Homer: What is therefore your own definition for Kaizen, Bart?

Bart: Dad, this is it:

“… Kaizen, Japanese for “improvement” or “change for the best”, refers to philosophy or practices that focus upon continuous improvement of processes in manufacturing, engineering, business management or any process. It has been applied in healthcare, [.…] psychotherapy, [.…] life-coaching, government, banking, and other industries. When used in the business sense and applied to the workplace, kaizen refers to activities that continually improve all functions, and involves all employees from the CEO to the assembly line workers. It also applies to processes, such as purchasing and logistics, that cross organizational boundaries into the supply chain. [.…] By improving standardized activities and processes, kaizen aims to eliminate waste (see lean manufacturing). Kaizen was first implemented in several Japanese businesses after the Second World War, influenced in part by American business and quality management teachers who visited the country. It has since spread throughout the world [.…] and is now being implemented in environments outside of business and productivity …”

Homer: And how about Six Sigma defined, Bart?

Bart: Dad, this is it:

“ … Six Sigma is a set of techniques and tools for process improvement. It was developed by Motorola in 1986, coinciding with the Japanese asset price bubble which is reflected in its terminology [.…] Jack Welch made it central to his business strategy at General Electric in 1995. Today, it is used in many industrial sectors …. Six Sigma seeks to improve the quality of process outputs by identifying and removing the causes of defects (errors) and minimizing variability in manufacturing and business processes. It uses a set of quality management methods, including statistical methods, and creates a special infrastructure of people within the organization (“Champions”, “Black Belts”, “Green Belts”, “Yellow Belts”, etc.) who are experts in these methods. Each Six Sigma project carried out within an organization follows a defined sequence of steps and has quantified value targets, for example: reduce process cycle time, reduce pollution, reduce costs, increase customer satisfaction, and increase profits. These are also core to principles of Total Quality Management (TQM) as described by Peter Drucker and Tom Peters (particularly in his book “In Search of Excellence” in which he refers to the Motorola six sigma principles) …”

Homer: Why is leadership so spoken against by Leadership Specialist and Harvard University Prof. Barbara Kellerman, PhD., author of The End of Leadership (ISBN: 978–0062069160), Bart?

Bart: Dad, while in a society there is Universal Drunk Sodom and Universal Cocained Gomorrah, you will never have REAL MORALITY, by any rational measure. AND IF YOU DO NOT HAVE OPTIMAL MORALITY IN PLACE, THERE ARE TWO THINGS THAT YOU WILL NEVER HAVE.

FIRST, YOU WILL NEVER HAVE AN OPTIMAL AND FUNCTIONAL ETHICAL STANDING TO CONDUCT BUSINESS CORRECTLY THAT ARE FISCALLY SOUND.

SECOND, NEITHER MANAGERS, NOR EMPLOYEES, NOR THEIR RESPECTIVE ORGANIZATIONS WILL NEVER ACHIEVE THE NECESSARY FUNCTIONAL OUTCOMES TO NURTURE AND SUSTAIN THE FINANCIALS OF THE ORGANIZATION IN QUESTION.

“FIRST” AND “SECOND” IS ALL OVER THE PLACE GLOBALLY, BOTH IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND PUBLIC SECTOR, AS WELL AS THE NGO SECTOR.

Homer: So, to the best of their abilities, How far and wide angle goes the Grand View of BlackBelts in tackling with real world operational and non-operational problems, Bart?

Bart: Dad, my evidence-based research show a calculus of about 270 degrees within the mean of top-performing BlackBelts.

Homer: Having said that, Bart, What those BlackBelts need to get the missing and remaining 90 degrees back into the top performing?

Bart: Dad, what it takes is to understand and to prepare for the forthcoming White Swan book’s excerpt. Please see it here!

IT LITERALLY GOES LIKE THIS:

1.-) “…HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]…” [226]

2.-) “…COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS…” [226]

3.-) “… BEGINNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE IN THE KNOWN WORLD AT THE TIME OF CHRIST, STUDIES HAVE ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD’S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013 …” [226]

4.- ) “…KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING BY EVERY FOURTEEN MONTHS…” [226]

5.-) “…MORE THAN THE DOUBLING OF COMPUTATIONAL POWER [IS TAKING PLACE] EVERY YEAR…” [226]

6.-) “…The flattening of the world is going to be hugely disruptive to both traditional and developed societies. The weak will fall further behind faster. The traditional will feel the force of modernization much more profoundly. The new will get turned into old quicker. The developed will be challenged by the underdeveloped much more profoundly. I worry, because so much political stability is built on economic stability, and economic stability is not going to be a feature of the flat world. Add it all up and you can see that the disruptions and going to come faster and harder. No one is immune — not me, not you, not Microsoft. WE ARE ENTERING AN ERA OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION ON STEROIDS. Dealing with flatism is going to be a challenge of a whole new dimension even if your country has a strategy. But if you don’t have a strategy at all, well, again, you’ve warned…” [226]

END OF THE INFORMATION CITED BY BART.

Homer: Don’t you find the solutions to this age esoteric, Bart?

Bart: Dad, No, and it is funny that you mentioned it. I once met a Scots executive who told me that beyond-insurance risk management methodology by DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), NASA, Boeing, Lockheed Martin (L.M.‘s motto, “… What’s impossible today won’t be tomorrow …” ) and Royal Dutch/Shell Group, practicing Systems Approach with the Non-Theological Applied Omniscience Problem-Solving Method since the late 1970’s, was “…esoteric…” I still treasure his aesthetic e-mail.

TO THE DISMAL AND UNCOMFORT OF SAID SCOTS EXECUTIVE, LET US SEE THE FOLLOWING:

Most-Honorable Mr. Willy Brandt (18 December 1913 – 8 October 1992) — was a German politician and Chancellor of Germany:

“…Those who adhere to the past won’t be able to cope with the future…”

Homer: Bart, Can you tell me one (1) thing BlackBelts and Senseis are missing in full-scope Quality Assurance and Continuous Improvements in the twentieth-one century?

Bart: Dad, Certainly! I will tell you six (6) examples below. In each example, BlackBelts and Senseis have to do SOMETING EXTRA and way beyond out-of-the-box foolishness.

BY WAY OF EXAMPLE:

If you are into Toyota Production System and you are the Sony Corporation, you need to know a lot of Five Rings (ISBN: 978–1935785972).

If you are into Continuous Process Improvement and you are General Electric, you ALSO need to know a lot of Niccolo Machiavelli’s The Prince (ISBN-13: 978–0226500447).

If you are into Juran’s Prescription and you are Jack Ma’s (http://bit.ly/1Ds2Mla) Alibaba Group (http://bit.ly/1uzDRIv), you ALSO need to know a lot of Sun Tzu’s The Art Of War (ISBN: 978-1454911869).

If you are into Six Sigma and you are Motorola, you ALSO need to know a lot of Joseph Fouché’s Portrait of a Politician (ISBN: 978–1165614356).

If you are into Kaizen and you are Bayerische Motoren Werke AG (BMW) and Mercedes-Benz, you ALSO need to know a lot of Frederick The Great On The Art Of War (ISBN: 978–0306809088).

If you are into Lean Manufacturing and you are DARPA or NASA, you ALSO need to know a lot of Napoleons Art of War (ISBN: 978–1566196956).

Homer: Bart, Really? I did not know that!

Bart: Dad, they are and will never be as open as I am. In the final analysis to be and to come, they will be instituting the Extra Miles above.

Homer: Son, How did you get to learn about the subject matter here?

Bart: Dad, The problem with you is that you forget it all. When I was 25 I was fully introduced and indoctrinated on worldwide Royal Dutch Shell’s scenario-planning methodology by Shell’s nationalized company Maraven. That introduction and indoctrination came through the kind deeds and executive decision of and by Maraven President, Dr. Carlos Castillo and the high-ranking strategic planners under his command. The view and application of scenario-planning methodology by Maraven, as well as the training to me, included all theoretical and practical quality-assurance and continuous-improvement prescriptions by: Dr. W. Edwards Deming, Dr. Joseph Juran, Mr. Bill Conway, U.S. Navy, Kaizen and Hitachi. With serious quality assurance and continuous improvement, one must exercise (like in scenario planning) great foresight and learning in advance in order to eliminate forthcoming “defects” or “flaws,” leaving leeway to countermeasure unknonwables. All of my Maraven training included all of the preceding. Maraven was a created and an acculturated full-scope petroleum company by Shell and then under the absolute tutelage and management control of state-owned PDVSA (Citgo’s parent company). Maraven was affluently applying scenario-planning methodology as it was exactly conceived, designed and practiced by Pierre Wack (an unconventional French oil executive who was the first to develop the use of scenario planning in the private sector, at Royal Dutch Shell’s London headquarters in the 1970s.) Wack is the father of scenario planning in the private sector. For more details on this noted Guru, go to the Economist at http://www.economist.com/node/12000502 .
Homer: Son, where is the repository of this Fenchman?
Bart: Dad, Wack’s public writings are meager and kept under the intellectual copyrighted ownership of Shell. Wack’s methodological heir was Honorable Mr. Peter Schwartz, a previous Shell executive, the former Chairman of Global Business Network (www.gbn.com) and author of the groundbreaking book on scenario planning: “…The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World…” (ISBN-13: 978–1863160995). Wack and Schwartz are the greatest proponents of 3-scenario analysis. In my case, I institute “…hazard-scenario planning…” and the number of plausible and implausible outputted “outlooks” (scenarios) are only limited by the designated budget by the Client. I am going to explain what “ouput” means in Systems Engineering. You have the Systems Transformational “Box,” throughputting (marshaling) “…known inputs…” into “…desirable outputs…” (outcomes). BUT, FOR A LONG TIME UNTIL YEAR 1999, I HAD A REVOLTING QUESTION: WHERE DOES THE EXACT AND MOST UNDERLYING GENESIS OF SCENARIO PLANNING REALLY COME FROM? When I study contemporary authors I always wonder if I can find the actual “root” philosopher, scientist and thought leader that first brought about an idea, notion, maxim, theory or approach. For instance, great American self-help author Napoleon Hill got his first name and success tenets after and from (respectively) Napoleon Bonaparte. I research the works by the original ones first and then I might check out the works by the contemporary versions afterwards.

Homer: Son, and the U.S. Industrial-Military Complex’s involvement with this Dr. Strangeloves’ thinking thing?

Bart: Dad, COMING BACK TO THE MAIN SUBJECT MATTER, I finally founded that scenario planning was developed by the U.S. during the 1950’s and as great existential challenges were threatening the country’s National Security doctrine as a direct result of the Cold War (1947–1991). In consequence, I knew the exact and primordial, in-all-truth root and understood that DoD (1789 — present), DARPA (1958 — present), NASA (1958 — present) and Military-Industrial Complex (1961 — present) and other agencies and private contractors (including Skunkworks ones) were the founding fathers of advanced scenario-planning methodology. Many scientists and engineers worked extremely hard at it, including NASA’s Dr. Wernher von Braun ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wernher_von_Braun ) and the plethora of elitist scientists collaborating with him. But the gravest inflection point came by the Sputnik Crisis (also known as the “Sputnik Moment”). From this point onward, one find the salient research by RAND Corporation’s polymath futurist Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983). To give you an idea on Kahn’s intellectual mind-set style, please check these clear-eyed assertions by him: “…I’m against ignorance…I am against the whole cliché of the moment…I’m against fashionable thinking…I’m against sloppy, emotional thinking…” (http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/h/herman_kahn.html). United States Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld argued, “…Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns; that is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know we don’t know…” But many years before “… unknown unknowns…” by Rumsfeld, Khan was the ultimate pioneer in superseding “…the unthinkable…” This by Khan is one of the pillars of Transformative and Integrative Risk Management and The Future of Scientific Management, Today! He did offer a theoretical body and practical mode of approaching its theory. The most important global institutions of the world, into profit or not, are into stern “unthinkable” discerning, beginning with those of us into advanced beyond-insurance risk management and strategy. Wikipedia’s citation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman_Kahn) on “…the unthinkable…” polymath futurist is extremely educational. An excerpt of this citation indicates, “…Herman Kahn was a founder of the Hudson Institute and one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally come to prominence as a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND Corporation. He became known for analyzing the likely consequences of nuclear war and recommending ways to improve survivability, making him an inspiration for the title character of Stanley Kubrick’s classic black comedy film satire Dr. Strangelove. His theories contributed to the development of the nuclear strategy of the United States.…Kahn’s major contributions were the several strategies he developed during the Cold War to contemplate ‘the unthinkable’ – namely, nuclear warfare – by using applications of game theory. (Most notably, Kahn is often cited as the father of scenario planning. During the mid-1950s, the Eisenhower administration’s prevailing nuclear strategy had been one of ‘massive retaliation’, enunciated by Secretary of State John Foster Dulles. According to this theory, dubbed the ‘New Look’, the Soviet Army was considerably larger than that of the United States and therefore presented a potential security threat in too many locations for the Americans to counter effectively at once. Consequently, the United States had no choice but to proclaim that its response to any Soviet aggression anywhere would be a nuclear attack…Kahn considered this theory untenable because it was crude and potentially destabilizing. He argued that New-Look theory invited nuclear attack by providing the Soviet Union with an incentive to precede any conventional localized military action somewhere in the world with a nuclear attack on U.S. bomber bases, thereby eliminating the Americans’ nuclear threat immediately and forcing the United States into the land war it sought to avoid.…In 1960, as Cold War tensions were near their peak following the Sputnik crisis and amidst talk of a widening ‘missile gap’ between the United States and the Soviet Union, Kahn published On Thermonuclear War, the title of which clearly alluded to On War, the classic 19th-century treatise by the German military strategist Carl von Clausewitz.…Kahn rested his theory upon two premises, one obvious, one highly controversial. First, nuclear war was obviously feasible, since the United States and the Soviet Union currently had massive nuclear arsenals aimed at each other. Second, like any other war, it was winnable.…Whether hundreds of millions died or ‘merely’ a few major cities were destroyed, Kahn argued, life would go on – as it had, for instance, after the Black Death in Europe during the 14th century, or in Japan after the limited nuclear attack in 1945 – contrary to the conventional, prevailing doomsday scenarios. Various outcomes might be far more horrible than anything hitherto witnessed or imagined, but some of them nonetheless could be far worse than others. No matter how calamitous the devastation, Kahn argued that the survivors ultimately would not ‘envy the dead’ and to believe otherwise would mean that deterrence was unnecessary in the first place. If Americans were unwilling to accept the consequences, no matter how horrifying, of a nuclear exchange, then they certainly had no business proclaiming their willingness to attack. Without an unfettered, un-ambivalent willingness to ‘push the button’, the entire array of preparations and military deployments was merely an elaborate bluff.…The bases of his work were systems theory and game theory as applied to economics and military strategy. Kahn argued that for deterrence to succeed, the Soviet Union had to be convinced that the United States had second-strike capability in order to leave the Politburo in no doubt that even a perfectly-coordinated massive attack would guarantee a measure of retaliation that would leave them devastated as well: «…At the minimum, an adequate deterrent for the United States must provide an objective basis for a Soviet calculation that would persuade them that, no matter how skillful or ingenious they were, an attack on the United States would lead to a very high risk if not certainty of large-scale destruction to Soviet civil society and military forces…».…Superficially, this reasoning resembles the older doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) due to John von Neumann, although Kahn was one of its vocal critics. Strong conventional forces were also a key element in Kahn’s strategic thinking, for he argued that the tension generated by relatively minor flashpoints worldwide could be dissipated without resort to the nuclear option…”

Homer: Son, Do you have closing remarks about the preceding?

Bart: You bet it, Dad. Given all of the prior and to the end of all of the encompassed in the totality of this dialogue with you, Dad, I understand and summon the following:

1.- Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence, government agencies and entities, NGOs, business enterprises and supranationals. Nonetheless, scenario planning as per Wack and Khan is breathtaking but in itself does not suffice in contemporary times.

2.- Along with item “1.-” there is also the concomitant application of 2.1.- Systems Theory, 2.2.- Game Theory, 2.3.- Wargaming Theory and 2.4.- Many other modes of practical strategic thinking and strategic execution. By example, Game Theory and Wargaming Theory ? both under the Systems Thinking Approach ? are extremely well addressed by Dr. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, PhD. You may wish to explored his book: “The Predictioneer’s Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future” (ISBN-13: 978–0812979770). To me Napoleon Bonaparte is the greeters Systems Thinker ever beyond any military campaign. If you are hesitant about it, please ask systems engineers, physicists, other scholars and managers, as well as prominent historians. 80% of the teaching by Bonaparte are taught in all U.S. Military Academies. In my case and as per my own experience, NASA-beloved Leonado Da Vinci’s publications can be an over-learning device for the prepared mind.

3.- With “1.-” and “2.-” in place, there is also the application of Compound Forecasting without the ruling out the vast computing calculation and transformation of narrative data and numerical data. I have many reasons to state that I use 70% of Qualitative Analytics and 30% of Quantitative Analytics. Algorithms don’t outsmart the biological brain yet. By year 2000, before the Dawn of Strong Big Data, the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) CEO, Mr. Roger Brown and me were experimenting in seizing an optimal computerized reading pertaining to the “success likelihood” of a major business initiative to be jointly launched by our respective interests. This was another way of “futuring” that resulted exceedingly interesting.

4.- In addition to all posited in “1.-”, “2.-” and “3.-”, it is, too, highly advisable the concurrent implementation of other practical methodologies of and by 4.1.- Futures Studies and 4.2.- Foresight Research.

5.- All numbered items above and in a rogue yet subtle search and recursive exploration of the totality of the whole (by holistic means), everything there must be seamlessly integrated and instituted in accordance with Systems Thinking with the Systemic and Systematic Applied Omniscience Perspective as it is understood both by Applied Engineers and Physicists. All stakeholders institutes all the approaches hereby in order to avoid disruption potentials. One of the world’s best and more authoritative example is NASA and everything by it. For decades, NASA has been developing beyond-insurance risk management technologies and services for its own initiatives, projects and missions, as well as for august global corporations. In the Summer of 2013, an American group of oil-and-gas that operate globally asked NASA for a “Space-Age Risk Management” service to them as it was made official in a NASA Press Release at http://www.nasa.gov/centers/johnson/news/releases/2013/J13-014.html Kindly please remember that Risk Management is neither taking calculated risks in Wall Streets, nor managing “challenges” by insurance and reinsurance companies. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management is, in all actuality, OPTIMAL MANAGEMENT PER SE to greatly exploit upsides and downsides before they happen. Beyond-Insurance Risk Management or “…Transformative and Integrative Risk Management…” is, by far, much more than Beyond-”…Sarbanes–Oxley Act…” Risk Management. You see, “reinsurance” is a fancy term that equates to amounts of “…insurance purchased by and for insurance companies…” If a tiny or gargantuan insurance company instituted Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, said insurance company would not need at all to buy any reinsurance “protection” or so-called “cover.”

6.- There are many leading government agencies and entities, NGOs and global corporations that, since many years now, practice everything above in parallel (simultaneously). This is under universal practice by agencies and business enterprises into Aerospace and Defense. Institutions ? that I have worked with that practice avant-garde “scenario planing” and Transformative and Integrative Risk Management ? encompass: Toyota, Mitsubishi, World Bank, Shell, Statoil, Total, Exxon, Mobil, PDVSA/Citgo, GE, GMAC, TNT Express, GTE, Amoco, BP, Abbot Laboratories, World Health Organization, Ernst Young Consulting, SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation), Pak Mail, Wilpro Energy Services, Phillips Petroleum Company, Dupont, Conoco, ENI (Italy’s petroleum state-owned firm), Chevron, and LDG Management (HCC Benefits).

7.- Many professional futurists and other scientists and entrepreneurs have formidable notions and idea but lack the direct experience in managing a dangerous corporate theater of operations (framework). To find out more about relentless Scenario-Planning Methodology and Transformative and Integrative Risk Management, you are most welcome to consider the interview at http://lnkd.in/bYP2nDC (republished by the Lifeboat Foundation and Forward Metrics).

Homer: Son, A rhetoric question: How do you manage to be the top brain behind the Bilderberg Group (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilderberg_Group )?

Homer: Bart, What else do I not know, Bart?

Bart: Dad, that the direct incumbents of systematically applying Kaizen, Toyota Production System, Lean Manufacturing, Agile, Extreme Project Management, Six Sigma, Process Engineer and the like, as well as cradle-to-grave Strategists and so-called Futurists, are blinded powerless and intellectually castrated to deal with all of the ensuing:

A.- Black Swans,

B.- Gray Swans,

C.- Sputnik Moments,

D.- Negative Risks (the opposite of Positive Risks),

E.- Downside Futures, and

F.- Black-Box Events. PERIOD!

ABSOLUTE END.

Authored By Copyright Mr. Andres Agostini

White Swan Book Author (Source of this Article)

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