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The Lifeboat Foundation Worldwide Ambassador Mr. Andres Agostini’s own White Swan Update, Countermeassuring Every Unthinkable Black Swan, at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

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‘Nanodaisies’ deliver more powerful drug cocktail to cancer cells http://www.kurzweilai.net/nanodaisies-deliver-more-powerful-drug-cocktail-to-cancer-cells
A research agenda for potential ecological risks of synthetic biology http://www.kurzweilai.net/a-research-agenda-for-potential-ecological-risks-of-synthetic-biology

How to make robots and self-driving cars think faster http://www.kurzweilai.net/how-to-make-robots-and-self-driving-cars-think-faster
Google’s self-driving car prototype: no steering wheel, brake, or accelerator http://www.kurzweilai.net/googles-self-driving-car-prototype-no-steering-wheel-brake-or-accelerator
Can ‘Mixed Reality Living Spaces’ fix our overcrowded future? http://www.theverge.com/2014/5/26/5751336/virtual-reality-walls-bernando-schorr
Scientists achieve reliable quantum teleportation for first time http://www.cnet.com/news/scientists-achieve-reliable-quantum-teleportation-for-the-first-time/
DARPA unveils four ‘big’ cybersecurity projects http://washingtonexaminer.com/darpa-unveils-four-big-cybersecurity-projects/article/2549057

Beam me up, Scotty: teleportation ‘could become reality’ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/10863929/Beam-me-up-Scotty-teleportation-could-become-reality.html
Pew Report: The Internet of Things http://www.ctovision.com/2014/05/pew-report-internet-things/
How MIT and Caltech’s coding breakthrough could accelerate mobile network speeds http://m.networkworld.com/community/node/85496?hpg1=bn
This Futuristic Car Design Was Inspired By A Fighter Jet’s Wing http://www.businessinsider.com/deltawing-concept-car-2014-5
100 Amazing Futuristic Design Concepts We Wish Were Real http://www.webdesignerdepot.com/2009/04/100-amazing-futuristic-design-concepts-w-wish-were-real/

Where are the real-world proven-track records of and by the White Swan Author, Mr. Andres Agostini?

a from Profitable Challenges

What are four (4) solid real-life examples that the White Swan Author has risk-managed? Andres has many letterhead testimonials about those. See the ensuing:

1.- World-class Petroleum Refineries whose risks that Andres has managed are available at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/05/white-swan-oil-refineries

2.- World-class Oil and Gas Tankers (maritime vessels) whose risks that Andres has managed are available at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/05/white-swan-oil-gas-tankers

3.- World-class Petroleum installations, equipments and hardware whose risks that Andres has managed are available at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/05/white-swan-petroleum-installations

4.- Toyota and Mitsubishi Motors factories and installations whose risks that Andres has managed are available at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/05/white-swan-cars

logo for the symposium transparent b100 Year Starship announces a Call for Papers for the 100YSS 2014 Public Symposium. The Symposium will be held September 18–21 at the George R. Brown Convention Center in Houston, Texas, United States.

You’re invited to submit your abstract for one of the eight Technical Tracks or Poster Session and be a part of our transdisciplinary scope to include the broadest swath of ideas and people for our mission. Abstract deadline is 20 June, 2014.

The Pathway to the Stars, Footprints on Earth theme still guides the focus of 100YSS’s Public Symposium. It compels us to continue our journey and maintain our mission. Last year, our participants explored different avenues of fundamental research, technology development, societal systems, and capacities that facilitate ready access to our inner solar system. This year we move that focus forward with more in-depth access to emerging and cutting edge topics – expanding our view of design, creating new pathways in education, discovering psychology, and cutting edge transportation methods. Using a collaborative and Transdisciplinary approach to capability and capacity building, our mission will continue to support our efforts to enhance life here on earth…today. Join us as we log another year in our 100-year mission at the 100YSS 2014 Public Symposium.

Below are the tracks for our 2014 Call For Papers.

Propulsion and Energy

How fast and how far can we travel? Fundamental breakthroughs in propulsion and energy are required for interstellar travel to be feasible. To overcome the formidable time-distance barrier for travel between stars, robust leaps in theory and engineering for energy production, control and storage must occur, as well as the advancement and demonstration of propulsion techniques.

Data, Communications and Information Technology

Sending and receiving information by interstellar travelers or robotic vehicles requires development new methods to traverse the vast emptiness between stars. Additionally, in the absence of routine and timely communication with Earth, a probe or traveler must be self-sufficient in gathering, generating, compiling, storing, analyzing and retrieving data while ensuring these systems are operational over the lifetime of the mission and beyond.

Designing for Interstellar

Design for interstellar probes and crewed vehicles must address the unique characteristics and extreme environment of interstellar space. The equipment, structures, tools, materials, buildings, furniture, cleaning and maintenance processes, clothing—the accouterments of life and work— surround and create an environment. This environment protects, nourishes and facilitates daily activities. For most living things, their environment must fulfill many physical needs and for higher order creatures, physical, mental and emotional requirements need be met as well. Understanding, optimizing and manufacturing design to make these aspects of daily activities sustainable are critical for any hope of successful interstellar flight—with a living crew or robotic probes.

“Uncharted” Space and Destinations

Understanding the interstellar medium and the composition of exosolar systems is vital as we contemplate travel to the stars. In addition, as our gaze is drawn many light years away, focusing on closer objectives as stepping stones to deep space will be essential. Beyond Mars, what missions should be designed to eventuate successful travel to another star? How should potential destinations be evaluated? What do we know and how do we learn more about space between the stars?

Interstellar Education

The journey beyond our solar system will overwhelm current educational practices. Commonly held beliefs and understandings of “learning” must and will be challenged. It is probable that humans have huge untapped capacities. Innovative learning tools and educational structures are needed for syntheses of ever-increasing information. The interstellar education platform will drive new knowledge of the universe and the development of the workforce that can create all that will be needed for interstellar travel. What are these new educational paradigms? What is education’s role—formal and informal—in producing interstellar citizens?

Life Sciences in Space Exploration

As ”Earth-evolved” humans, plants and other life forms travel deeper in space, we must understand much more about the fundamentals of life mechanisms. We must prepare for radical shifts in nutrition, potential therapeutics, growth and development, physiology and ethics. Concurrently, as we search for life beyond the earth we may need to re-evaluate our perspective of what is defined as “life”. Also, how might we use the interstellar environment itself for life science research?

Becoming an Interstellar Civilization

Are humans driven to search beyond our knowledge base? How and in response to what do we create the belief systems that guide us? Interstellar travel is not just about the physical trip, but must include the journey civilizations take together. Who will we be and what will define our societies, morality, ethics, cultures, laws, economies, relationships and identities?

Interstellar Innovations Enhancing Life on Earth

Technology progresses in small increments and by leaps and bounds. Often the biggest steps forward are through the invention and innovation required to meet grand challenges. Interstellar travel represents such a challenge that may spur new economies, combat climate change, address heretofore incurable diseases. This session asks “What are these innovations and how can we deploy these to enhance life here on Earth?”

Poster Sessions

Great ideas arise through unique individual observations, from people of all ages and educational backgrounds. The Poster Sessions are an opportunity to present snapshots of these early concepts and experiments. Poster sessions are a great forum to communicate any commercial opportunities in space or here on earth and seek like-minded collaborators or investors. Presentation in the poster format allows in-depth discussion in a small group setting. Topics are open.

SUBMISSION GUIDELINES

Submissions can be perspectives on the central dogma, experimental results, and review of a specific topic. You must ensure that it fits the track topic to which you are submitting. Individual presentations will only be presented in one track. Individuals do not have to be associated with an institution to submit an abstract. Please note that materials should be non-commercial in content, any commercial presentation that communicates a service, technology or product can be submitted to our poster session.

Submissions will be reviewed based on bona fide field of inquiry/thought/research that derive from validated in patents, literature, mathematics or practice. The data submitted should represent one or more of the following:

  • Actual data or background search generated presents a challenge to current dogma or asks a significant question
  • Data moves the field forward or clarifies some aspect of the field
  • Solves a problem acknowledged in the field
  • Provides a novel, well supported integration and/or review of field and proposes specific concept

Submitted abstracts are well written, 300 word, concise and includes a statement of the following items. If actual data, results and conclusions are not available, please provide a well though out plan for how the information will be generated.

  • Background
  • Problem and hypothesis
  • Experimental design (or literature review)
  • Data
  • Results
  • Conclusions and Discussion

For Social Science submissions, (e.g. Interstellar Education and Becoming an Interstellar Civilization Tracks), the following guidelines apply for the abstract, presentation and paper submissions. The submissions should:

  • Articulate the issue or research question to be discussed,
  • Indicate the methodological or critical framework used, and
  • Indicate the findings or conclusions to be presented and/or the relevance to wider conference themes.

Presentations and papers can present any kind of research or analysis, but it should be written so that the importance of the work can be understood by reviewers working in different disciplines or using different approaches. Cross- or trans-discipline work is especially encouraged.

100YSS Poster Submissions

In order to provide a broader audience the opportunity to present their ideas, there will be on option to present a poster for your submission. All authors are welcome to present in the Poster session. Individuals can submit for poster session only. A Track Chair may also select submissions for a poster presentation. Individuals or companies advertising a service, technology or product can submit for poster only presentations. If you are a commercial entity, the poster session may be the perfect opportunity to present you idea. Each poster must fit into the 100YSS mission and provide a valid line of inquiry. The final submission should be 4ft x 4ft or 122 cm x 122 cm.

2014 Call for Papers Timeline

  • Call for papers opens: 11 April
  • Abstracts due: 20 June
  • Notification of acceptance: 15 July
  • If accepted, Presentations and Posters Due: 10 September

The 100YSS Style Guide for Papers will be provided to presenters on acceptance of abstract.

To submit your abstract, visit: http://100yss.org/symposium/2014/

Please note that you will be asked to create an account to submit your abstract. Registration for the symposium itself is coming soon.

Toyota and Mitsubishi Motors factories and installations that have continuously benefited from Mr. Andres Agostini’s White Swan Transformative and Integrative Risk Management. The White Swan Idea is at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

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Oil Refineries that has continuously benefited from Mr. Andres Agostini’s White Swan Transformative and Integrative Risk Management. The White Swan Idea is at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

Through five and half years, the White Swan Book’s Author Andres Agostini concurrently managed the risks of the world’s number 1 and the world’s number 3 Oil Refineries. There is a sample of installations of these two refineries.

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The White Swan Idea is at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

The Lifeboat Foundation Worldwide Ambassador Mr. Andres Agostini’s own White Swan Negative Risks, Countermeassuring Every Unthinkable Black Swan, at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

What is a Negative Risk, Countermesured by the White Swan Transformative and Integrative Risk Management Methodology?

“… Negative Risk is the quantitative or qualitative expression of possible loss that considers both the probability that an event will occur and the consequences of that event and/or the likeliness of injury, harm, damage, disruption or loss multiplied by its potential magnitude …”

The Lifeboat Foundation Worldwide Ambassador Mr. Andres Agostini’s own White Swan Wild Card Events, Countermeassuring Every Unthinkable Black Swan, at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan


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A Wild Card Event, Countermeasured by the White Swan

“… A Wild Card Event is a future development or event with a relatively low probability of occurrence but a likely high impact on the conduct of business and regarding the organizational theater of operations, strongly and preemptively and beforehand countermeasured by the White Swan Transformative and Integrative Risk Management…”

The Lifeboat Foundation Worldwide Ambassador Mr. Andres Agostini’s own White Swan Education Elucidated By Napoleon Bonaparte And Dr. Wernher Von Braun:, Countermeassuring Every Unthinkable Black Swan, at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

Education Elucidated By Napoleon Bonaparte And Dr. Wernher Von Braun:

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Reflecting On The Education We Immediately Need! Napoleon Bonaparte On Education (1769 — 1821) observed:

“…Education, strictly speaking, has several objectives: one needs to learn how to speak and write correctly, which is generally called grammar and belles letters. Each lyceum has provided for this object, and there is no well-educated man who has not learned his rhetoric [….] After the need to speak and write correctly comes the ability to count and measure. The lyceums have provided this with classes in MATHEMATICS embracing arithmetical and MECHANICAL KNOWLEDGE IN THEIR DIFFERENT BRANCHES [….] The elements of several other fields come next: chronology, geography, and the rudiments of history are also a part of the education of the lyceum [….] A young man who leaves the lyceum at sixteen years of age thence knows not only the mechanics of his language and the classical authors, the divisions of discourse, the different figures of eloquence, the means of employing them either to calm or arouse passions, in short, everything that one learns in a course on belles letters. He also would know the principal epochs of history, the basic geographical divisions, and how to compute and measure. He has some general idea of the most striking natural phenomena and the principles of equilibrium and movement both with regard to solids and fluids [….] Whether he desires to follow the career of the barrister, that of the sword, or ENGLISH, or letters; if he is destined to enter into the body of scholars, to be a geographer, engineer, or land surveyor — in all these cases he has received a general education necessary to become equipped to receive the remainder of instruction that his circumstances require, and it is at this moment, when he must make his choice of a profession, that the special studies present themselves …”. [113]

DR. WERNHER VON BRAUN ON EDUCATION, (1912 — 1977and Father of the American Space Program) observed:

“…The average citizen today, of course, has far more scientific information at his disposal than did those greatest of intellects of earlier times. Yet paradoxically, I think that THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A GREATER NEED FOR INCREASED UNDERSTANDING AND APPRECIATION OF SCIENCE. It has been said that, although the choice of direction for our civilization will be determined through democratic process, it is there that the problem begins. TO MAKE RATIONAL CHOICES, THE AVERAGE CITIZEN MUST UNDERSTAND THE NATURE AND ROLE OF SCIENCE AT A TIME WHEN ITS BREADTH AND COMPLEXITY ARE INCREASING ALMOST EXPONENTIALLY [….] Conversely, the scientist, at a time when he can barely keep up to date in his specialty, must not isolate himself in his parochial interest. Instead, he should see his profession as a part of the larger world, to evaluate himself and his work in relation to all forces, especially the humanities, which shape and advance society. THE NEED, THEN, IS FOR AN EDUCATIONAL PROCESS RESULTING IN MORE SCIENTIFIC LITERACY FOR THE LAYMAN, AND MORE LITERACY IN THE HUMANITIES FOR THE SCIENTISTS [….] Man in this scientific age is free only to the extent that he has a grasp on himself and his surroundings. FREEDOM — THE ABILITY TO SPEAK, THINK, ACT, AND VOTE INTELLIGENTLY — is based largely on our ability TO MAKE CHOICES growing out of our understanding of the issues involved. With each advance of science, there is an invitation to more understanding. This is the essence of the burden borne by all peoples since the dawn of humanity. There must be widespread understanding of the role of science in modern society, both as to its limits and our dependence on its basic function as a tool for our survival. This is the imperative for scientific literacy [….] How do we encourage scientific literacy? I THINK THE PROBLEM IS HOW TO INSTILL IN STUDENTS A PERMANENT DESIRE TO LEARN. All youth is endowed with curiosity from the very beginning. What can education process do, not only to keep this natural curiosity alive, but to make it a permanent part of the individual drive? … ”

The Lifeboat Foundation Worldwide Ambassador Mr. Andres Agostini’s own White Swan Scientific-Knowledge Doubling Progression, Countermeassuring Every Unthinkable Black Swan, at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

On Scientific-Knowledge Doubling Progression

(Taken from the White Swan at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan)

A) “…HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]…” [226]

B) “…COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS…” [226]

C) “…BEGINNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE IN THE KNOWN WORLD AT THE TIME OF CHRIST, STUDIES HAVE ESTIMATED THAT THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD’S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013…” [226]

D) “…KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING BY EVERY FOURTEEN MONTHS…” [226]

E) “…MORE THAN THE DOUBLING OF COMPUTATIONAL POWER [IS TAKING PLACE] EVERY YEAR…” [226]

F) “…The flattening of the world is going to be hugely disruptive to both traditional and developed societies. The weak will fall further behind faster. The traditional will feel the force of modernization much more profoundly. The new will get turned into old quicker. The developed will be challenged by the underdeveloped much more profoundly. I worry, because so much political stability is built on economic stability, and economic stability is not going to be a feature of the flat world. Add it all up and you can see that the disruptions and going to come faster and harder. No one is immune — not me, not you, not Microsoft. WE ARE ENTERING AN ERA OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION ON STEROIDS. Dealing with flatism is going to be a challenge of a whole new dimension even if your country has a strategy. But if you don’t have a strategy at all, well, again, you’ve warned…” [226]

G) “…By the end of the twentieth century, science had reached the end of an era, unlocking the secrets of the atom, unraveling the molecule of life, and creating the electronic computer. With these three fundamental discoveries, triggered by the quantum revolution, the DNA revolution, and the computer revolution, the basic laws of matter, life, and computation were, in the main, finally solved [….] That epic phase of science is now drawing to a close; one era is ending and another is only beginning [….] The next era of science promises to be an even deeper, more thoroughgoing, more penetrating one than the last [….] Clearly, we are on the threshold of yet another revolution. HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history. COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS …” Brackets are of the author.

And G) above continues here:

“… Almost daily, the headlines herald new advances in computers, telecommunications, biotechnology, and space exploration. In the wake of this technological upheaval, entire industries and lifestyles are being overturned, only to give rise to entirely new ones. But these rapid, bewildering changes are not just quantitative. They mark the birth pangs of a new era [….] FROM NOW TO THE YEAR 2020, SCIENTISTS FORESEE AN EXPLOSION IN SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITY SUCH AS THE WORLD HAS NEVER SEEN BEFORE. IN TWO KEY TECHNOLOGIES, COMPUTER POWER AND THE DNA SEQUENCING, WE WILL SEE ENTIRE INDUSTRIES RISE AND FALL ON THE BASIS OF BREATHTAKING SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES. SINCE THE 1950S, THE POWER OF OUR COMPUTERS HAS ADVANCED BY A FACTOR OF ROUGHLY TEN BILLION. IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE … ”

And G) above continues here:

“… BY 2020, MICROPROCESSORS WILL LIKELY BE AS A CHEAP AND PLENTIFUL AS SCRAP PAPER, SCATTERED BY THE MILLIONS INTO ENVIRONMENT, ALLOWING US TO PLACE INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS EVERYWHERE. THIS WILL CHANGE EVERYTHING AROUND US, INCLUDING THE NATURE OF COMMERCE, THE WEALTH OF NATIONS, AND THE WAY WE COMMUNICATE, WORK, PLAY, AND LIVE…” [226]

H) “…The knowledge revolution is taking place in small, sharply defined areas. One company generates more U.S. patents than 139 countries do together [….] This [revolution] generates new EMPIRES and new ghettos [….] It slams into existing systems and destroys them while creating new systems. Countries and individuals can either surf new and powerful waves of change — or try to stop them and get crushed…” [226]

I) “…Nanotechnologies are broad concept, it’s simply refers to technology where the key features in measuring the small number of nanometers. A NANOMETER IS THE DIAMETER OF FIVE CARBON ATOMS SO IT’S VERY CLOSE TO THE MOLECULAR LEVEL AND WE ALREADY HAVE NEW MATERIALS AND DEVICES THAT HAD BEEN MANUFACTURED AT THE NANOSCALE. IN FACT, CHIPS TODAY, THE KEY FEATURES ARE 50 OR 60 NANOMETERS SO THAT IS ALREADY NANOTECHNOLOGY. The true promise of nanotechnology is that ultimately we’ll be able to create devices that are manufactured at the molecular level by putting together, molecular fragments in new combinations so, I can send you an information file and a desktop nanofactory will assemble molecules according to the definition in the file and create a physical objects so I can e-mail you a pair of trousers or a module to build housing or a solar panel and WE’LL BE ABLE TO CREATE JUST ABOUT ANYTHING WE NEED IN THE PHYSICAL WORLD FROM INFORMATION FILES WITH VERY INEXPENSIVE INPUT MATERIALS. You can… I mean, just a few years ago if I wanted to send you a movie or a book or a recorded album, I would send you a FedEx package, now I can e-mail you an attachment and you can create a movie or a book from that …”

And I) above continues here:

“ … On the future, I’ll be able to e-mail you a blouse or a meal. So, that’s the promise of nanotechnology. Another promise is to be able to create devices that are size of blood cells and by the way biology is an example of nanotechnology, the key features of biology are at the molecular level. SO, THAT’S ACTUALLY THE EXISTENCE PROOF THAT NANOTECHNOLOGY IS FEASIBLE BUT BIOLOGY IS BASED ON LIMITED SIDE OF MATERIALS. EVERYTHING IS BUILT OUT OF PROTEINS AND THAT’S A LIMITED CLASS OF SUBSTANCES. WITH NANOTECHNOLOGY WE CAN CREATE THINGS THAT ARE FAR MORE DURABLE AND FAR MORE POWERFUL. One scientist designed a robotic red blood cell it’s a thousand times more powerful than the biological version so, if you were to replace a portion of your biological red blood cells with this respirocytes the robotic versions. You could do an Olympic sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath or sit at the bottom of your pool for 4 hours …”

And I) above continues here:

“ … If I were to say someday you’ll have millions or even billions of these nanobots, nano-robots, blood cell size devices going through your body and keeping you healthy from inside, I might think well, that sounds awfully futuristic. I’d point out this already in 50 experiments in animals of doing exactly that with the first generation of nano engineered blood cell size devices. One scientist cured type-1 diabetes in rats with the blood cell size device. Seven nanometer pores let’s insulin out in the controlled fashion. At MIT, there’s a blood cell size device that can detect and destroy cancer cells in the bloodstream. These are early experiments but KEEP IN MIND THAT BECAUSE OF THE EXPONENTIAL PROGRESSION OF THIS TECHNOLOGY, THESE TECHNOLOGIES WILL BE A BILLION TIMES MORE POWERFUL IN 25 YEARS AND YOU GET SOME IDEA WHAT WILL BE FEASIBLE …” [226]

J) “…The world has profoundly changed … The challenges and complexity we face in our personal lives and relationships, in our families, in our professional lives, and in our organizations are of a different order of magnitude. In fact, many mark 1989 — the year we witnessed the fall of the Berlin Wall — as the beginning of the Information Age, the birth of a new reality, a sea change of incredible significance — truly a new era — Being effective as individuals and organizations is no longer merely an option — survival in today’s world requires it. But in order to thrive, innovate, excel, and lead in what Covey calls the new Knowledge Worker Age, we must build on and move beyond effectiveness [long-held assumptions, fallacies and flawed beliefs and faulty conventions]…Accessing the higher levels of human genius and motivation in today’s new reality REQUIRES A SEA CHANGE IN THINKING: a new mind-sets, a new skill-set, a new tool-set — in short, a whole new habit…” [226] Brackets are of the author.

K) “…All the notions we thought solid, all the values of civilized life, all that made for stability in international relations, all that made for regularity in the economy … in a word, all that tended happily to limit the uncertainty of the morrow, all that gave nations and individuals some confidence in the morrow … all this seems badly compromised. I have consulted all augurs I could find, of every species, and I have heard only vague words, contradictory prophecies, curiously feeble assurances. Never has humanity combined so much power with so much disorder, so much anxiety with so many playthings, so much knowledge with so much uncertainty…” [226]

L) “…It’s not the case that there are only a fixed number of positions, and if old people don’t die off, there’s no room for young people to come up with new ideas, because we’re constantly expanding knowledge …. Knowledge is growing exponentially. It’s doubling approximately every year ….The problem is I can’t get on the phone with you in the future and say, “Well, I’ve done it, I have lived forever ….This idea of creating a whole virtual body with nanobots, that’s more like a 2050 scenario. But by the 2030s we’ll be putting millions of nanobots inside our bodies to augment our immune system, to basically wipe out disease. One scientist cured Type I diabetes in rats with a blood-cell-size device already ….” [226]

L) here continues:

“… By 2029, computers will have emotional intelligence and be convincing as people. This implies that these are people with volition just like you and I, not just games that you turn on or off. Is it my father? You could argue that it’s a simulation. But it’s not something you can play with. You don’t want to bring someone back who might be very depressed because the world is very different than they expect and the people they know aren’t around …. It’s not us versus them. We’ve created these tools to overcome our limitations, and we’ve integrated with them already. A.I. today is not in three or four dark federal intelligence agencies; it’s in billions of mobile devices around the world[….] Early in this decade [2020s], humanity will have the requisite hardware to emulate human intelligence within a $1000 personal computer, followed shortly by effective software models of human intelligence toward the middle of the decade: this will be enabled through the continuing exponential growth of brain-scanning technology, which is doubling in bandwidth, temporal and spatial resolution every year, and will be greatly amplified with nanotechnology, allowing us to have a detailed understanding of all the regions of the human brain and to aid in developing human-level machine intelligence by the end of this decade …. Computers less than 100 m in size will be possible …” Brackets are of the author. [226]

M) “…The real trouble with this world of ours is not that it is an unreasonable world, nor that it is a reasonable one. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden, its wildness lies in wait … ” [220] [226]

N) “…We believe that the goal is not to predict the future, but to imagine a future made possible by changes in technology, life style, work style, regulation, global geopolitics, and the like. And there are as many viable futures as there as imaginative firms that can understand deeply the at work right now which hold opportunities to become the author of the new. FOR THE FUTURE IS NOT WHAT WILL HAPPEN; THE FUTURE IS WHAT IS HAPPENING. The present and the future don’t about each other, neatly divided between the five-year plan and the great unknown beyond. Rather they are intertwined. Every company is in the process of becoming — of becoming an anachronism irrelevant to the future, or of becoming the harbinger of the future …” [226]

N) continues:

“…The long-term is not something that happens someday; it is what every company is building or forfeiting [….] Only those who can imagine and preemptively create the future will be around to enjoy it … Creating a compelling view of tomorrow’s opportunities and moving preemptively to secure the future are tasks for neither dilettantes nor the merely intellectual curious … Other companies, the laggards, were more interested in protecting the past than in creating the future … We believe, and will argue strongly, that a company must not only get to the future first, it must get there for less [….] And re-engineering charge is simply the penalty that a company must pay for not having anticipated the future [….] If senior executives don’t have reasonably detailed answers to the ‘future’ set of questions, and if the answers they do have are not substantially different from the ‘today’ answers, there is little chance their companies will remain market leaders [….] For much of the 1980s, IBM had been driving toward the future while looking out the rear-view mirror [….] Too often, profound thinking about the future and how to shape it occurs only when present success has been substantially eroded [….] Creating the future is more challenging than playing catch up, in that you have to create your own road map [….] The goal is not simply to benchmark a competitor’s products and processes and imitate its methods, but to develop an independent point of view about tomorrow’s opportunities and how to exploit them …” [226]

N) continues:

“ … Path-breaking is a lot more rewarding than benchmarking. One doesn’t get to the future first by letting someone else blaze the trail [….] Passengers will get to the future, but their fate will not be in their own hands. Theirs profits from the future will be modest at best. Those who drive industry revolution — companies that have a clear, permeated view of where they want tom take their industry and are capable of orchestrating resources inside and outside the company to get there first — will be handsomely rewarded… The future is not an extrapolation of the past. New industrial structures will supersede old industrial structures [….] Opportunities that at first blush seem evolutionary will prove to be revolutionary [….] A commitment substantial enough to beget the perseverance required to create the future must be based on something more than a hunch [….] But to create the future, a company must first be able to forget some of its past … ‘The future was predictable, but hardly anyone predicted it’ …” [87]. [226]

O) “…The future belongs not to those who possess a crystal ball, but those willing to challenge the biases and prejudices of the ‘establishment.’ The future belongs more to the unorthodox than it does to the prognosticators […and/or predictioneers…], more to the movement than to the starry-eyed …. The problem with the future is that is different …. If you are unable to think differently, the Future will always arrive as a [strategic or geostrategic Sputnik Moment] surprise …”

O) continues:

“ … Each revolution in art was based on a re-conception of reality. It wasn’t the canvas, the pigments, or the brushes that changed, but how the artist perceived the world. In the same sense, it’s not the tools that distinguish industry revolutionaries from hummed, not the information technology they harness, not the process they use, not their facilities. Instead, is their ability to escape the stranglehold of the familiar…” [28]. Brackets are of the author.

P) “…A primary theme in Alvin Toffler’s best selling book Future Shock is that society’s rate of change is increasing. Everything around us — including ourselves — is rapidly changing. Nothing is stable, permanent, constant, or fixed. Neither is risk. It is an indigenous element in the volatility of life. If anything, risk expands at a greater rate than the societal rate of change — due to its roots in uncertainty and ignorance of consequences, which multiply during mercurial instability … ” [226]

ON DOUBLINGS BY HARD SCIENCE, HI-TECH AND EFFICIENCY:

Incidentally, every Scientific and Technological Progression available that is into a “ …doubling …” order of magnitude is synthesized here:

Doubling A: (# 1 of 10)

“… HUMAN KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING EVERY TEN YEARS [AS PER THE 1998 STANDARDS]. In the past decade, more scientific knowledge has been created than in all of human history …” (http://bit.ly/1nOc5Xm ). Brackets are of the author. [226]

Doubling B: (# 2 of 10)

“… COMPUTER POWER IS DOUBLING EVERY EIGHTEEN MONTHS. THE INTERNET IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR. THE NUMBER OF DNA SEQUENCES WE CAN ANALYZE IS DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS …” (http://bit.ly/1gn4CdX ) [226]

Doubling C: (# 3 of 10)

“ …IN FACT, BECAUSE BOTH COMPUTER POWER AND DNA SEQUENCING DOUBLE ROUGHLY EVERY TWO YEARS, ONE CAN COMPUTE THE ROUGH TIME FRAME OVER WHICH MANY SCIENTIFIC BREAKTHROUGHS WILL TAKE PLACE [….] BY 2020 …” (http://bit.ly/1lZQ1Vc) [226]

Doubling D: (# 4 of 10)

“…SCIENTIFIC MANPOWER IS DOUBLING EVERY 12 YEARS IN A RATE OF GROWTH MORE THAN THREE TIMES THAT OF OUR POPULATION AS A WHOLE, DESPITE THAT, THE VAST STRETCHES OF THE UNKNOWN AND THE UNANSWERED AND THE UNFINISHED STILL FAR OUTSTRIP OUR COLLECTIVE COMPREHENSION…” [80] (http://1.usa.gov/1eyRLTK). [226]

Doubling E: (# 5 of 10)

“ …THE FIRST DOUBLING OF THAT KNOWLEDGE TOOK PLACE ABOUT 1700 A.D. THE SECOND DOUBLING OCCURRED AROUND THE YEAR 1900. IT IS ESTIMATED TODAY THAT THE WORLD’S KNOWLEDGE BASE WILL DOUBLE AGAIN BY 2010 AND AGAIN AFTER THAT BY 2013…” [37] (http://bit.ly/1iptmkn). [226]

Doubling F: (# 6 of 10)

“…[THERE IS A] DOUBLING EVERY TWO YEARS [REGARDING THE TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT OF] SOLAR ENERGY BY APPLYING NANOTECHNOLOGY TO SOLAR PANELS…” [177] (http://bit.ly/1jgckIJ). Brackets are of the author. [226]

Doubling G: (# 7 of 10)

“…NANO-GENETIC SEQUENCING DATA … IS DOUBLING EVERY YEAR…” [177] (http://slidesha.re/1f3MUH2). [226]

Doubling I: (# 8 of 10)

“…KNOWLEDGE IS DOUBLING BY EVERY FOURTEEN MONTHS…” [177] (http://bit.ly/1dc8Zb4). [226]

Doubling J: (# 9 of 10)

“…MORE THAN THE DOUBLING OF COMPUTATIONAL POWER [IS TAKING PLACE] EVERY YEAR…” [177] (http://bit.ly/1mn8Btl). Brackets are of the author. [226]

Doubling K: (# 10 of 10)

“…Like Moore’s Law for silicon electronics, which says that computers are growing exponentially smaller and more powerful every year, molecular systems developed with DNA nanotechnology have been doubling in size roughly every three years,…” says Professor Erik Winfree at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). [197] (http://bit.ly/1f3NEMq). [217] [226]

END OF CITATIONS.

The Lifeboat Foundation Worldwide Ambassador Mr. Andres Agostini’s own White Swan Fortuitousness Versus Pseudo-fortuitousness \, Countermeassuring Every Unthinkable Black Swan, at https://lifeboat.com/blog/2014/04/white-swan

Fortuitousness Versus Pseudo-fortuitousness

Fortuitousness (Unexpected and casually happening[s], as a result of corporate manager’s perpetual MOST-RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and © forgotten angles, and (d) recondite spheres and (e) hermetic theater of operations and (e) unrealized orbits.

Pseudo-fortuitousness (quasi-unexpected and quasi-casually happening[s], as a result of corporate manager’s perpetual MOST-RECURSIVE search for lucrative intangibles in omniverseral: (a) hidden quadrants and (b) ignored flanks and © forgotten angles, and (d) recondite spheres and (e) hermetic theater of operations and (e) unrealized orbits.